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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP in the Second Quarter: A Long and Deep Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2015

The GDP contraction of 1.9% in the second quarter (Graph 1) confirmed the expectation that the recession would deepen. Because of the negative carry-over to the rest of the year and all the evidence that further contraction will happen in the third quarter, GDP will likely decline by 3% in 2015 a...

Low Levels of Economic Growth Threaten Employment Creation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

During his budget speech at the beginning of the year, the Minister of Finance estimated growth for 2015 at 2%. For the economy to grow at an average rate of 2% in 2015 it would have to grow at relatively high rates in the second half of the year because growth in the first half was disappointing...

Guatemala: Corruption Scandals Dampen Outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Executive Summary Political developments linked to Guatemala’s corruption scandals have dampened the national economic outlook. But the turmoil has not so far damaged financial stability, which been powerfully resilient.The dollar is stable in the 7.60-7.70 quetzal range; the Bank of Guatemala’s ...

The PBoC is selling US Treasuries!!!
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Aug 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The PBoC has been reported to have sold substantial amounts of US government bonds. It will probably continue to sell a lot more.This doesn’t mean, however, that there will be substantial liquidation. The reasons driving PBoC selling also mean that China...

Circling a Deal
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2015

A FARC deal may be close, and the focus has turned to intense public discussion over how a deal might be finalized and executed. Yet the difficulties still seem substantial: these basically boil down to political disagreement over whether a special “mini-congress” might be created to ratify any d...

Political Crisis and Loss of Degrees of Freedom in Conducting Economic Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Against the backdrop of stagflation and a politically weak government, the Central Bank is facing two challenges. The first is the need to keep interest rates high for longer, even in face of the deepening recession, which raises the political pressures for easing. The second is the task of absor...

South African Economy: The China Effect
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2015

As a member of the “fragile five”, South Africa was hit hard by the global financial vortex that engulfed the markets this week. Its currency was hardest hit, and the Johannesburg stock exchange lost over 7% of its market cap. The global turmoil coincided with a raft of other negative indicators:...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

All available indicators show the economy has been decelerating drastically, and the government, politically fragile, has little maneuvering room to try to reverse this trajectory. The economic crisis, political crisis and revelations from the Lava Jato investigation have not yet peaked, meaning ...

Politics: Crime on the Rise in Capital
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Executive Summary The analyses of public security issues GEA conducts for Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics are generally made of nationwide crime data, but this time we are narrowing our focus to the Federal District because of its economic and political weight, its record in building a successful ...

Lowering growth forecasts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Aug 2015

We are downgrading our GDP forecasts to 5.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016 (from 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively[1]). The revisions reflect both the just released GDP numbers, which show moderate 1H15 growth of 5.3% (see Box), and expected crop losses from a strengthening El Niño. Our revised forecasts im...

Economics: New China Model’s Mexico Effect
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

To the already extensive list of negative factors of international origin adversely affecting the Mexican economy over the past ten months (plunging prices for oil and other locally produced commodities, uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s long awaited interest rate liftoff,...

From False Dawn to Sunset?
CHILE · Report · 27 Aug 2015

The Chilean peso is fifth among the emerging market currencies that fell the most in 2015. We can divide this currency slump into two periods with different drivers and implications. The first is the period in which the US dollar appreciated vis-à-vis almost every currency in the world, and the s...

Restructuring deal: four years’ maturity extension, 7.75 flat coupon rate, 20% haircut
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015 · 2 responses

Yesterday Ad Hoc creditors’ committee agreed for $18.0 billion Ukrainian debt restructuring. The agreement does not include loans of state-owned entities with sovereign guarantee, City of Kyiv Eurobonds and Ukrzaliznytsia Eurobonds. The deal presumes 20% haircut. Current Eurobonds will be exchang...

Debt restructuring results might be announced today
UKRAINE · In Brief · 27 Aug 2015

Media have been circulating message that Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk plans to announce some positive news today at 12:00 Kyiv time. In fact it is not a big secret that this news will be about debt restructuring. We do not know parameters of the agreement but, apparently, the agreement was re...

Robust Growth and Low Inflation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 26 Aug 2015

Growth was strong and inflation muted in H1, with GDP growth estimated at 6.4%, and accumulated inflation reaching just 0.64%. Low inflation resulted from lower oil prices, which drove down transportation prices -- but reduced pressure on the currency was a secondary factor. We expect an incre...

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