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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of August 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Aug 2016

The final phase of the impeachment of removed President Dilma Rousseff will begin on Thursday, August 25, and end next week. Before this, the Senate is expected to vote on the first round of the DRU. Congressman will try to conclude the vote on state debt. As part of his positive agenda, interim ...

The Labor Market in the Country’s Regions
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 22 Aug 2016

The unemployment rate in Brazil reached 11.1% in the second quarter, with the South remaining with the lowest rate in the county, around 8%, while the Northeast standing with the highest rate, nearly 13% (Graph 1). The rise in unemployment is similar in all five regions of the country – about 4 p...

Urjit Patel appointed RBI Governor
INDIA · In Brief · 20 Aug 2016

Deputy Governor Urjit Patel has been appointed the new Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. He was among the front-runners for the post. He is a macroeconomist by training, has worked in India for many years, has been RBI Deputy Governor Monetary Policy, and was part of the team that worked on ...

Recent data points to a more robust Israel economy
ISRAEL · In Brief · 20 Aug 2016

Economic data released last week suggest fairly strong growth in 1H16 GDP growth reached 2.9% in 1H16 following 2.0% in 2H15. Q216 growth reached 3.7% SAAR and 2.9% y-o-y. Private consumption accelerated to 9.5% SAAR in Q216 on strong durable demand. Industrial exports are up 8.8% in Q2, and inve...

Inflation is unscathed
VENEZUELA · Report · 19 Aug 2016

Over a month ago, the government launched the Mission for Sovereign and Secure Supplies. So far, efforts to improve the distribution of basic consumer products managed to get some goods to the shelves in the government’s establishments but informal markets and price dynamics remain intact.

IP accelerates, job market tightens
ISRAEL · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Industrial production in Q2 increased 5.9% (SAAR) following growth of 4.9% in Q1. The high tech sector witnessed expanded 14.7% following 4.3% respectively. The non-high tech sector witnessed contraction of 2.2% in Q2 following growth of 4.2% in Q1. The number of workers in industry increased by ...

2Q16 GDP grew 7%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Aug 2016

Government announced today that the economy grew 7% in 2Q16, in line with what we expected. The economy’s growth performance may be traced to the following factors: Investments in a broad range of durable equipment (+43%), particularly road vehicles; Consumption (+7.3%), boosted by election spend...

One More Reform. But is There Time?
CHILE · Report · 17 Aug 2016

President Bachelet's pension reform proposals both fit and break a pattern. As with previous reforms, the government appears to be bending to longstanding popular discontent, this time with the existing individual pension accounts and their administrators, known by their Spanish acronym as "AFPs"...

Economics: Making Sense of the Trump Phenomenon
MEXICO · Report · 17 Aug 2016

One of the factors injecting the greatest sense of uncertainty into the decisions of economic agents in Mexico (producers, investors and consumers) is the election campaign that is currently taking place in the United States. The threats being made by Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, agains...

Inauguration speech and Cabinet reshuffling signaling continuity rather than innovation
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 17 Aug 2016

Yesterday, Danilo Medina was proclaimed President for a new term. In short, his inauguration speech points towards policy continuity and very few innovations or ruptures. Most of the speech was devoted to outline social achievements of the past term and new goals for the next four years. For that...

GDP Growth Sharply Higher in Q2
HUNGARY · Report · 17 Aug 2016

GDP recovered from its Q1 debacle and showed surprisingly robust growth in Q2. The main contributors were services, probably on consumer demand, and agriculture, due to a positive supply shock. Construction also started to recover on q-o-q basis. But even so, growth was quite weak on the whole in...

Politics: Murders Show Institutional Weakness
MEXICO · Report · 16 Aug 2016

In the past month, three mayors and a former mayor have been killed. This is not, unfortunately, a new phenomenon. In the past decade, 86 mayors, former mayors, and municipal or town council members have been assassinated. Equally unfortunate is the fact that this is just the tip of the iceberg, ...

Growth accelerates in Q216
ISRAEL · In Brief · 16 Aug 2016

GDP growth for the second quarter of this year surprised on the upside, reaching 3.7% SAAR; almost double market expectations. Growth was rather broad based with private consumption up 9.5%, public consumption up 8.7%, exports up 3.8%, residential investments up 2.9% and business sector (non-resi...

Turkish Politics: Fine at Home, Getting Tricky Abroad
TURKEY · Report · 16 Aug 2016 · 1 response

At the one month anniversary of the coup attempt, I find myself increasingly removed from what I view as the majority view about Turkish politics. At home, I remain a relative optimist regarding the future of democracy. Abroad, a strategic alliance with Russia or Iran remains a pipedream. Turkey...

Feeding Inflation and Recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 15 Aug 2016 · 1 response

The minimum wage increase announced by President Maduro on August 12 enters into effect in two weeks. It’s the third hike imposed by decree this year and brings about a 50 percent increase in the minimum wage and a 129 percent increase in the food bonus. The monthly total minimum income rises by ...

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