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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Signs of Economic Slowing Despite Strong GDP. Signs of a Competitive Presidential Race in 2018
MEXICO · Report · 06 Jul 2017

Aggregate supply and demand for the first quarter grew much better than expected (4.2%) as the awaited slowing of private consumption failed to materialize, and a boost in petroleum exports allowed the trade balance to contribute half of a percentage point to overall growth. The leading index of ...

June's big cash deficit was caused by an upswing of payments on EU-sponsored development programs
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jul 2017

This morning's report on an unusually big monthly cash deficit of the central government in June may have looked a bit scary at first glance. But looking into the details suggests it should not be highly consequential.The monthly cash deficit in June was HUF698bn, outstandingly big compared to a ...

Week of July 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

The president of the Constitution and Justice chooses the rapporteur for the accusation against President Michel Temer. Although he has 10 sessions to present his defense, Temer is expected to do so this week. The Senate may vote on an urgency request for Labor Reform, but the vote on the bill it...

Growth Picks Up in Q1 Amid Political Uncertainty
PANAMA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

GDP grew 6.2% y/y in Q1 2017 compared to 4.6% in Q1 2016. The three drivers were: 1) double digit growth in Colon Free Zone (CFZ) re-exports; 2) an increase in Panama Canal transits due to last year’s expansion, as well as a surge in ports transshipments; 3) construction, driven by private and pu...

Effects of the Favorable External Impulse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

In the midst of a political crisis that increases risks and hampers growth recovery, Brazil is benefiting from two favorable movements of the international economy. The resumption of growth in Europe, Japan and the United States in an environment of abundant international liquidity has reduced...

A jump in BCV’s non-reserve assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2017 · 1 response

BCV's balance sheet as of May 31, 2017, published on June 29, reports a month-on-month increase of Bs 25,091 billion (236 percent) in the non-reserve assets account called “Diverse Assets in Foreign Currency” (Activos Diversos en Divisas). This account is not part of BCV’s foreign reserves. We...

Land reform requirement was dropped from the IMF memorandum, anonymous source reports
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Jul 2017

Breaking news arrived today. Anonymous source reported that President Poroshenko asked the IMF to drop agro-land circulation from agenda and the IMF (allegedly personally Christine Lagarde) satisfied the request. Allegedly the decision was already set. I’m quite skeptical to such news but I see i...

Inevitable constituent assembly won’t bring stability
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Jul 2017 · 1 response

National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections are scheduled for July 30. Maduro’s call to form this body is unconstitutional, but he has support from the high court (which is stacked with loyalists), the National Guard (which is violently repressing protests), and most of his government. The p...

Funny Numbers
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​The new Medium Term Fiscal Framework contained few surprises. The central government’s fiscal deficit for 2017 is still estimated at 3.6% of GDP, in line with the revised fiscal rule target. That’s no mean feat, as a lot has changed this year. First, the economy will grow by less than the govern...

Encouraging Signs for Consumption Coming From the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Jul 2017

​It is very clear that on the aggregate demand side, recovery of household consumption will predominate over recovery of investments, which are still falling. An indication comes from the credit data. Unlike what has been happening with credit to businesses, which continues to contract along with...

Headline Drops Further on Food, Lira
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jul 2017

Consumer prices dropped by 0.27% in June, m/m, which compared favorably to consensus expectation of some 0.1% increase (June 2016: 0.5%). The 12-month rate hence declined more than expected to 10.9% from 11.7% in May. Producer prices also eased to 14.9%, y/y, from 15.3% in May, but remains rather...

Justice march and Syria needs monitoring
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

I’ve returned from a 15 day business trip to USA, where I had met representatives from roughly 35 institutions. I’ll provide more details in the upcoming Weekly Report, but in a nutshell interest in the Turkey story is strong, while positioning is light, which I expect to increase only very modes...

The European Commission on possible new conditionality attached to EU transfers
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Jul 2017

Politicians in the EU and especially in donor countries have been repeatedly talking about the need to attach tighter political conditionality to the distribution of financial grants by the European Union ("EU transfers') to member countries. This idea has come up in the context of performance on...

Tough Road for a Rebound
PERU · Forecast · 30 Jun 2017

The surprising severity of the El Niño phenomenon, and the worsening relations between Congress and the Executive branch, have moved us to revise our 2017 growth estimate. Still, these negative events are assumed to be improving with time, and the efforts for reconstruction after the climatic dis...

Rising Consumer Concerns about WMPs
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 30 Jun 2017

In May, we conducted a survey of buyers of Wealth Management Products (WMPS) in China and also examined related data on defaults from the courts and public sources. We believe the RMB 26 trillion WMP market is the most liquid and volatile within China’s financial system and would be prone to runs...

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