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Inflation and Recession: The Central Bank Dilemma is Getting Worse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Nov 2015

The IPCA-15 for November rose 0.85%, taking the 12-month inflation rate to 10.28%. Part of this movement is due to administered prices (Graph 1), but along with the pressure exerted by service prices, the influence is also being felt of the weaker exchange rate, which has depreciated 40% since th...

Game changer?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Nov 2015

After hemming and hawing for months, Mayor Rodrigo Duterte finally announced over the weekend that he will run for the presidency. Surprisingly, he cited the favorable ruling of the Senate Electoral Tribunal (SET) on the issue of Senator Grace Poe's citizenship as the reason for his decision. The...

​Alea iacta est: Macri President
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2015

With 98.4% of the total votes counted, at the moment of writing these lines, and with Macri obtaining a 2.9% lead over Scioli, there is no doubt left that Mauricio Macri will become, on December 11th, Argentina’s new president. This represents an important change in the political ideology of the ...

Weekly Tracker: November 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Nov 2015

The cabinet announcement has been delayed to early this week, reportedly because of President Erdogan’s busy schedule, but some differences of views -- between Davutoglu and Erdogan – seem to be playing a role as well. On the most market-sensitive issue of Mr. Ali Babacan’s role in the new cabine...

Benchmark Interest Rate Rises for the Second Time in 2015
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 19 Nov 2015

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to increase the country’s benchmark interest rate – the repo rate – from 6.0% to 6.25% at its November 2015 meeting. Four of the six members voted for an increase. Today was the second time the MPC increased the repo ra...

General government budget was indeed almost balanced in Q1-Q3
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Nov 2015

Earlier this week, we said in our November report that based on cash budget data, the central government budget must have been roughly balanced in ESA2010 terms in January-October, implying much tighter fiscal policy so far this year than required by the 2.4% of GDP annual deficit target. Since t...

Economics: No Foreseeable Lid on the Debt
MEXICO · Report · 19 Nov 2015

Now that the lower chamber of Congress has approved next year’s revenue and spending budgets it is time to take a look at how the public debt and budget deficit are likely to evolve in the coming years. The risks may prove considerable at a time of depressed petroleum revenues and rising debt cos...

Politics: Cannabis Left In Legal Limbo
MEXICO · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Early this month Mexico’s highest court took an initial and decisive step toward ending the ban on the production and consumption of cannabis for recreational purposes by upholding the rights of four plaintiffs to produce it for their own consumption. This decision does not constitute what in com...

Who gets to make money and for how long?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 18 Nov 2015

Last Thursday China Shanshui Cement Group announced its default on RMB 2 billion of loans. As of this writing it isn’t clear whether or not lenders will be forced to absorb losses but I suspect that the default will be resolved by shareholders. For much of this year credit spreads have c...

A Balanced Presidential Debate
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 16 Nov 2015

Yesterday’s presidential debate between Scioli and Macri ended up being relatively balanced, even though online polls indicate a favorable bias in favor of the opposition candidate. The debate is therefore unlikely to have generated a land-slide shift in voter’s preferences, leaving the impressio...

The MNB Is Active Again
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Nov 2015

GDP growth fell to 2.2% y/y/sda in Q3, continuing its slide. This means downward convergence to the sluggishness of the Eurozone, and to far below the growth rates of other EU CEE members. GDP growth came in even below market expectations. But we still expect 2.4% growth for full year 2015. A ...

Week of November 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Nov 2015

The government will face a big challenge this week with votes on the presidential vetoes in Congress. The 2016 LDO is also on the agenda, which sets the surplus goal at R$ 43.8 billion. This is an important week for Rep. Eduardo Cunha: The rapporteur of the case against him in the Ethics Council ...

Where is Consumption Headed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Nov 2015

Real retail sales declined again in September, meaning three straight quarters of contracting household consumption (Graph 1). More important than this, however, is the absence of any signs of reversal of this behavior.

Weekly Tracker: November 15-21
TURKEY · Report · 15 Nov 2015

The new cabinet is expected to be announced this week, when we shall get to see who’ll be in charge of the economy and/or what the new division of labor will be in the management of the economy. Yet, it will probably take a lot longer to get a clear picture on the more important issues like the e...

A Political Earthquake in the Making
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 13 Nov 2015

An unexpected political earthquake shook the country on October 25. First, Daniel Scioli beat Mauricio Macri by less than 3 percentage points when most opinion polls had anticipated a gap of nearly 10 percentage points between Scioli and Macri, the new frontrunner. Second but not least, María Eug...

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