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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 12
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Brazil Economics databank Sep 15
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Central America databank Oct 29
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Chile databank Oct 29
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Oct 21
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 7
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Hungary databank Oct 17
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank Oct 21
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Panama databank Nov 12
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Peru databank Nov 4
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Philippines databank Nov 7
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Poland databank Nov 3
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Russia Economics databank Oct 16
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South Africa databank Nov 3
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Turkey databank Oct 27
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Ukraine databank Nov 10
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Venezuela databank Nov 3
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - CHILE ELECTION BRIEFING: AFTER THE GENERAL ELECTIONS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Goldilocks Economy Is At Threat As Inflation Rises
HUNGARY · Forecast · 17 Jul 2017
There is remarkably little change in the outlook we presented in our previous Quarterly three months ago. In essence, Hungary continues to follow a benign macroeconomic path, which seems very well sustainable until the end of the forthcoming election period in late 2019, but will be most certainl...
Week of July 17
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017
Given that the Congressional recess begins on Tuesday, it should be a quiet week in Brasília.President Temer will discuss changes to Labor Reform with labor unions. In an effort to present a positive agenda, the president is to announce measures for the mining sector. On Thursday, social movement...
Economic Activity, Interest Rates and Consumption
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Jul 2017
Despite divergences between some indicators, the overall signs are that the contraction of economic activity is nearing its end. However, the recovery will likely be very slow. Although the real interest rate for one year (the yield on 360-day swaps deflated by expected inflation one year ahead) ...
Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jul 2017
The Justice March and the first anniversary of the attempted coup have been completed without violence. The odds of sudden military strike in Syria also remain low. Political risks remain acceptable in Turkey in the short-term. At the first anniversary of the coup attempt, Turkey is worse-off ...
Government Control
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2017
Russia’s government control over the Internet is constantly increasing as the authorities try to prevent opposition and foreign actors from using it for the purpose of changing the regime. Due to constant increase of control and government Internet blocking, circumvention tools are also becoming ...
The July 16 Popular Consultation
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Jul 2017
The government confronts tomorrow’s popular consultation with aggressive rhetoric, iron fist censorship of the media, and a “rehearsal” of the July 30 National Constituent Assembly (ANC) elections in parallel to the opposition’s event. Uncertainties surrounding the July 16 consultation make it di...
The Great Infrastructure Debate
PHILIPPINES · Report · 14 Jul 2017
Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping famously said, “It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice.”It is tempting to apply this to the raging debate about whether infrastructure projects should be pursued through public-private partnerships (PPP) or official development a...
Pension reform approved in first reading
UKRAINE · In Brief · 13 Jul 2017
Today Ukrainian parliament approved pension reform bill in first reading. Put it different MPs accepted the idea of pension reform in general but details will be under revision. Among points that Minister of social policy Andriy Reva promised to consider for the second round are pension fund audi...
Government on the Defensive Over Corruption
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 13 Jul 2017
Economic activity is slowing, according to official data. Between January and May, growth was up 4.2% from the same period in 2016, and up 5.2% between January and March. Inflation continues to be low. In May, the CPI shrank 0.14%, bringing accumulated ytd inflation to 0.96%, and annualized infla...
Lula Convicted – Step by step
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Jul 2017
Judge Sérgio Moro has convicted former president Lula, sentencing him to 9.5 years of imprisonment. According to Moro, Lula received R$ 3.7 million in bribes from OAS. The former president will be able to appeal the decision. Lula will only be arrested if convicted by the higher court.
Politics: Public Distrust Ahead of 2018 Vote
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017
As we continue to analyze the results of the latest GEA-ISA quarterly survey on governability and electoral preferences, we see little very little movement in citizen perceptions of the country's situation, the evaluation of President Peña Nieto's administration, or the mood of the country. R...
Economics: Yield Curve Becomes Inverted
MEXICO · Report · 12 Jul 2017
Mexico’s interest rate yield curves in recent weeks have reached levels that are not consistent with the expected evolution of macroeconomic variables. This week’s Economic Outlook analyzes the government securities yield curve. Last week’s National Consumer Price Index report revealed that p...
June was just another month with rising core inflation
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Jul 2017
With little exaggeration, reports on new inflation data releases could now be easily copy/pasted from one month to the other, given that the basic trend shows no change, only the specific values are getting somewhat higher on each occasion. Regarding the June data, the headline CPI-inflation rate...
Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Jul 2017
The country’s political scenario is still uncertain and filled with risks. Targeted by a denunciation of passive corruption and politically mutilated by the devastating conversation with Joesley Batista, President Temer has channeled all his efforts into producing a legal defense that can convinc...
Why do Chinese borrowers like risky structures?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 10 Jul 2017
Special points to highlight in this issue: • Roughly two-thirds of all the outstanding putable bonds in the world, according to Fitch Ratings, were issued by Chinese corporations. Historical precedents suggest that the popularity of this type of structure in China almost certainly reflects diff...