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A Cooperative Game Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Oct 2016

The solution to Brazil’s fiscal crisis requires not only tough measures like approval of the Proposed Constitutional Amendment (PEC) to limit spending in real terms and the social security reform. Without a return of economic growth, there will be no revenue growth or a return to primary surpluse...

The Horses of History
COLOMBIA · Report · 03 Oct 2016 · 2 responses

Colombians voted a troublesome 50.21%-49.78% favoring NO in the October 2 plebiscite on the peace agreement with the FARC. Regionally, the results reveal a worrisome pattern; the geographical core of the country, composed by relatively more affluent provinces, and where the largest cities sit, vo...

Good Inflation Print, More Cuts in Store
TURKEY · Report · 03 Oct 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in September, coming in at 0.2%, m/m, softer than the consensus expectation of a 0.7% increase. The 12-month rate hence fell visibly to 7.3% from just over 8% in August. Producer prices stayed very benign, suggesting little cost-push pressure, dr...

Referendum proved invalid by a substantial margin
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Oct 2016

Well, yesterday's vote almost came out as forecast by the polls. The difference from poll forecasts was that turnout ended up weaker than expected - only 40.4% of eligible voters showed up and cast a valid vote - and that of all valid votes, an unexpectedly high share - 98.3% - supported the gove...

Extending the SoE is a bad idea
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Oct 2016

After a week abroad (which caused me to skip the Weekly Tracker on Sunday), I returned to Turkey amidst rumors of a second coup plot, which were taken seriously by the government. Interior Minister Mr. Suleyman Soylu bravely claimed that potential plotters would feel “the baton of justice” on the...

​ First meeting of RBI's MPC
INDIA · In Brief · 02 Oct 2016

A new arrangement The first meeting of the newly constituted Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India will take place on October 3 and 4. The decision of the MPC will be final and the repo, rate will be set as decided by the committee. This is a break from past practice where the RB...

Growth reaches 4.9% in H1 forces weakens prospects for the rest of the year
PANAMA · Report · 30 Sep 2016

Real GDP grew 5.2% y/y in Q2 compared to 4.6% in Q1; growth in H1 was 4.9%, which suggests a growth rate for 2016 below the 6% estimates of the Panamanian Government and international agencies. The leading sectors were: electricity, gas and water supply; mining, construction and financial interme...

Referendum on migration policy unlikely to be a market mover
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 Sep 2016

Whatever importance the nationwide referendum on migration policy, due on Sunday, October 2, has for the long term, it is unlikely to be an immediate market mover. The vote, in which Hungarians may decide if they agree with the government in harshly opposing any compulsory refugee quota potential...

Rude Language and Awakenings
PHILIPPINES · Report · 29 Sep 2016

Judgment, it seems, came early for President Rodrigo Duterte. Not yet 100 days in office, the local currency hit a seven-year low of P48.25:$1, depreciating 3.5% since the start of the month while the main stock index retreated 3.1% over the same period, both worse than most regional peers.

Economics: Yawning Financing Gap Alarming
MEXICO · Report · 29 Sep 2016

Balance of payments data for the first half of the year and the General Economic Policy Criteria included in the government’s 2017 Economic Package reveal a risk factor for Mexico which, while not new, has grown in recent months: a double financing gap, or what economic theorists refer to as twin...

Politics: Political Crisis Continues to Deepen
MEXICO · Report · 28 Sep 2016

The political crisis plaguing the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto and his governing party (PRI) deepened in the past three months, according to the results of the latest quarterly polling data from GEA-ISA as detailed in the report Mexico Politics, Society, and Change: Political Sc...

Progress on Tax Amnesty
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2016

The issue of the tax amnesty program took center stage in forums across the country. Many gatherings were conducted by official agencies and banks, including many held in various churches, to disseminate information on the tax amnesty. Most tax consulting offices have been overbooked and declined...

Chances of Meeting Deficit Target Diminish
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 27 Sep 2016

We expected this year’s powerful capital spending expansion through April to be followed by sharp contraction, as authorities aimed to hit the 2.3% of GDP 2016 deficit target. But that didn’t happen – and we now have doubts that the government will be able to meet the target. Public investment...

Fiscal Questions Front and Center
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Sep 2016

El Salvador faces significant challenges for economic policy. In the short-term, fiscal sustainability requires immediate attention. The political debate is overshadowing fundamental discrepancies over the economic and social model. An economic, social and political pact is necessary to redefine ...

Week of September 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Sep 2016

The government may send the Social Security reform to Congress. Meetings with political and union leaders are scheduled throughout the week. However, due to the upcoming municipal elections, it is possible the matter may be postponed. Electoral advertising ends on Thursday, September 29, and the ...

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