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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Frustration over Economic Activity and the Reaction of Monetary Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

Last week a large number of indicators were disclosed strengthening the expectation of further contraction of GDP in the third quarter. If this is confirmed – and the probability is high – Brazilian society will be “rewarded” with the worst recession since CODACE (Committee for Dating Economic Cy...

Elections Offer Turning Point Opportunity
ECUADOR · Forecast · 24 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Ecuadorians know that the 2017 electoral stakes are high: their choices could define the continuation or the end of a political and economic model that has lasted for 10 years, supported by many, but hated by many, too. The departure of a charismatic leader, the economic crisis and the vulnerabil...

Week of October 23
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Turkey’s political uncertainties proliferated with daunting speed since the beginning of October, some of which are not yet fully grasped by the international investment community. We now believe a presidential referendum commands 75% odds, though timing is uncertain. Polls show Erdogan’s support...

​Oops!... He did it again
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Oct 2016

Last month, when President Rodrigo Duterte said he was cancelling military exercises and other cooperation with the U.S., the general reaction even from inside government was, he couldn’t possibly have said that or even if he did, it couldn’t possibly be what it sounded like. But he did say it. A...

Improved Economic Conditions – but for How Long?
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 21 Oct 2016

• Economic Growth: Our GDP forecast for both 2016 and 2017 depend upon a number of factors, one of the most important being South Africa’s sovereign credit rating remaining in investment grade territory. Complex domestic and global forces are still affecting South African economic growth. For in...

20% indefinitely postponed
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 20 Oct 2016 · 2 responses

The National Electoral Council (CNE) announced tonight that the collection of digital signatures from 20 percent of the electorate scheduled for October 26–28 is indefinitely postponed. The decision is based on questionable injunctions issued earlier in the day by five municipal-level criminal co...

If Not For You, Winter Would Have No Spring (Bob Dylan)
CHILE · Report · 20 Oct 2016

With the Monthly Index of Economic Activity rising above market expectations in August, the Minister of Finance treated the report as an opportunity to boost market sentiment. But we should be cautious in talking about re-acceleration. The Monthly Index of Business Confidence also fell back to ea...

MPC Pauses on Lira Weakness
TURKEY · Report · 20 Oct 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee left all short-term rates unchanged at today’s meeting. While this is contrary to the consensus (and our) expectation of another 25 bps cut of the O/N lending rate, these expectations had begun to be modified and shift toward a pause during the course of the past few...

Economics: Consumer Price Index Inflation with Upward Pressure
MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2016

After lingering below Banco de México’s 3% target for 17 months, inflation has begun to bounce back in the past three months for a number of reasons. In September, 12-month inflation hit 2.97%, its highest point so far this year. At first, various analysts and even the central bank argued th...

Cunha’s arrest increases tension in Brasília
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Oct 2016 · 1 response

​The week began with accusations against Moreira Franco published over the weekend. After that, there were rumors that Lula would be arrested. Then came the news that Eduardo Cunha’s wife, Claudia Cruz, was summoned to testify before Judge Sérgio Moro on November 14. Now, despite the fact that th...

MPC gives priority to growth
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Oct 2016

The minutes of the first MPC meeting of the RBI have been released. In the meeting the MPC had unanimously decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. The minutes show that all the new MPC members appear to give higher weight to output growth compared to inflation. We think they are on the...

Switching to Election Mode Again
HUNGARY · Forecast · 19 Oct 2016

Following a sharp upturn of GDP in Q2, industrial output, exports, retail sales and wages started Q3 with a moderate deceleration. However, the distribution of EU funds and even bank credit growth were accelerating. In H2, the recovery of GDP is likely to continue on the back of robust wage growt...

Politics: Policing Strains the Mexican Army
MEXICO · Report · 19 Oct 2016

Minister of National Defense, General Salvador Cienfuegos used a memorial event for soldiers recently ambushed by heavily armed criminal gunmen to complain of a lack of civilian support for the job the armed forces have had to assume since 2006 in fighting organized crime and compensating for the...

​Heads Up: Erdogan’s high wire act
TURKEY · In Brief · 19 Oct 2016

I’m afraid odds of Turkey heading for one or for a series of polls have increased substantially over the last couple of days. While I’ll defer my discussion of the latter subjects to the weekly, risks in Syria and those stemming from Ankara’s insistence to insert Turkey into the Mosul rescue oper...

Off to China
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Oct 2016

In an earlier post (“Belling the Cat,” 15 July 2016), we wondered what the Duterte Administration would do next, caught between an unsought for victory against China with respect to the country’s claims in the West Philippine Sea / South China Sea and the President’s desire to pursue bilateral ta...

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