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Weekly Tracker: Sep 27-Oct 3
TURKEY · Report · 27 Sep 2015

It wasn’t a Happy Id of Sacrifice for Turkey, as PKK killed 6 security personnel and wounded many. In the run-up to the November 1st elections, we predict more terror attacks and a vicious insurgency in the Kurdish cities. Meanwhile, AKP is losing support as a result of its crackdown to put down ...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 25 Sep 2015

While many people expected conditions to change under the new government, the business cycle downturn that began in Q1 2012 has not ended. The engine of earnings growth in large firms has not revived. There are concerns about credit stress in large firms, with growing interest payments and declin...

Too skinny for a diet
CHILE · Report · 25 Sep 2015

For the past several quarters the Central Bank has faced a dilemma. On one hand, inflation has run relatively high for quite a long time. On the other, economic activity is sluggish, and there is no sign of a recovery. Apparently the Board cares more about short-run inflation; the Board announced...

Peace Colombian Style
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Sep 2015

Yesterday’s announcement on an agreement between the Government and FARC on the issue of transitional justice marks what has been interpreted as a point of no return in the peace negotiations. President Santos went as far as saying that a peace agreement would be signed on the 23rd of March of 2016.

MNB has announced a supplementary measure today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

I am sorry to return to the same subject within one day, but as it happened, the MNB has just announced a supplementary measure, in addition to those published after yesterday's Monetary Council meeting. It is about the central bank's interest rate corridor around the (unchanged) 1.35% base rate,...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Sep 2015

The fear around the possibility of the opening of an impeachment process has caused President Dilma Rousseff to negotiate the ministerial changes directly with the PMDB in the House of Representatives. The negotiations are taking place with party leader Leonardo Picciani (RJ), linked to the Pr...

Central bank cuts policy rate by 5ppt down 22%
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

On September 24th Management Board of the National bank of Ukraine approved policy rate cut by 5ppt down to 22% since September 25th. This was already second policy rate cut over the last two months. On August 28 the Central bunk reduced policy rate by 3 ppt down to 27%. The tendency is quite pos...

Horse race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Sep 2015

So far, there are three. In order of their announcements to join the presidential race, these are Vice President Jejomar Binay, former Interior Secretary Mar Roxas and Senator Grace Poe. Latest polls show that the last one out of the gate, i.e., Senator Poe, leading by a nose and that for practic...

Repo Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Sep 2015

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to keep the repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 6% today during its September meeting. This follows July’s decision that saw the repo rate increase from 5.75 to 6%.

MNB decided to loosen monetary conditions further on September 22-23
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Sep 2015

The MNB decided to keep its base rate at 1.35% yesterday, but the bank changed the main sterilization instrument on which the base rate is paid, from 2-week deposits to a new 3-month deposit facility, with unlimited access. This morning, the Bank held an auction for 2-week deposits, at which it l...

The impact in China and abroad of slowing growth
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Sep 2015

-Given China’s size, and the ways in which its domestic imbalances have been reflected in external markets, the way in which China adjusts is likely to have major impacts both on domestic economic sectors and those abroad. It is important to work through the consequences of an adjustment to deter...

MPC: On Autopilot a While Longer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Sep 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today, as expected.The economics of the statement is also very similar to the previous ones except for a few minor additions (e.g., “the composition of growth is expected to shift gradually towards net exports in the upcoming periods...

Hungary's standing within the EU regarding the refugee crisis has improved recently
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Sep 2015

A week ago, we launched a somewhat pessimistic analysis on Hungary's outlook in the ongoing refugee crisis, suggesting that the government has essentially no good choice in trying to solve the problem. This conclusion is still valid for the longer run, but the government used the few tactical cha...

Week of September 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Sep 2015

President Dilma Rousseff announces an administrative reform, with a reduction in the number of ministries and the number of public posts. In Congress, we highlight the analysis of the presidential vetoes, especially the one dealing with salary increases for the Judiciary. On Wednesday, September ...

Scary Year Ahead
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Sep 2015

Q2 GDP expansion of 3% was pretty much in Iine with expectations, and showed slowdown to be modest, compared with the predicament of other Latin American economies. We expect 2.9% expansion for 2015, just over the Central Bank’s forecast of 2.8%. But the government is projecting 3.5% growth. That...

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