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Political Cash Coming Out
UKRAINE · In Brief · 30 Oct 2016 · 1 response

Over the last week Ukrainians enjoy a real time show about top politicians and civil servants reporting in e-declarations their assets, incomes and piles of cash. Recall there was a huge fight to introduce e-declarations mechanisms. It was for many times attacked by local establishment and only t...

Week of October 30
TURKEY · Report · 30 Oct 2016

This Weekly Tracker’s politics section prepares the reader for the upcoming Quarterly Report by laying out scenarios for the long list of political processes that might have a bearing on asset pricing. The picture is not pretty. Substantial amount of uncertainty still surrounds the question of Ex...

Seeking Money, While Putting Fiscal Reform on Ice
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 28 Oct 2016

Q1-Q3 GDP growth was once again remarkable: up 6.9%, compared with the same period in 2015, according to preliminary Central Bank estimates. The Dominican Republic continues to lead growth in Latin America and the Caribbean. CPI rose only 0.04%, putting accumulated inflation for the year throu...

Inflation still above 20% in 2017, but better prospects for 2018
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 28 Oct 2016

This quarterly report tries to answer the questions most frequently asked by prospective investors in the Argentine economy: 1. Will Macri’s government deepen the fiscal and pro-market reforms before the mid-term elections to take place in October 2017? 2. If, without deepening the reforms, the...

El Salvador: Fiscal Showdown
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Oct 2016

Intense political negotiations over fiscal issues are underway in El Salvador. Many analysts (us included) have anticipated a payment crisis for several months, as the opposition ARENA has refused back new borrowing. The party conditions its congressional support upon reaching consensus on a fisc...

Economics: Mexico Shares Some China Woes
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2016

One of the risk factors that endures as a threat to the performance of the Mexican economy over the medium term is the health of the Chinese economy, especially its financial markets. Concern has mounted in the past few months in response to official data pointing to a slowing of economic activit...

Politics: Graft, A Many Ringed Circus
MEXICO · Report · 27 Oct 2016

Federal officials have begun in recent days to respond to years of complaints regarding widespread corruption at the state level by issuing arrest warrants for two out of at least six high profile cases of gubernatorial malfeasance. It has yet to been seen just how seriously those and other cases...

President Bachelet appointed Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

As expected, President Bachelet appointed the Board Member Mario Marcel as President of the Central Bank. This will become effective in December, when Rodrigo Vergara leaves his current position.

​The consequences of the municipal elections in Chile.
CHILE · Report · 26 Oct 2016

Municipal elections were held across Chile on Sunday, and the results were a surprise to Chile’s political class – even the winners. For the most part, it was a good day for the opposition, which won more votes, more mayors and more council members nationwide. Chile Vamos won 38.4% of the popular...

Improved Expectations, With A Growth Challenge Ahead
PERU · Forecast · 26 Oct 2016

We continue to envisage a relatively optimistic scenario for the Peruvian economy, though certainly less optimistic than the authorities do. GDP grew by a stronger 4.2% y/y in the first eight months of 2016, due to an 9.5% expansion of primary sector activity, driven by the production ramp-up of ...

The MNB announced two additional steps to loosen monetary conditions today
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Oct 2016

Apparently, the MNB is not satisfied with its previously announced policy of reducing the stock of bank placements into its 3-month deposit facility to HUF900bn by year end, marking a HUF1076bn decrease from the level recorded on September 21, the day immediately before that announcement. Today, ...

Settle in for a Long Wait
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 25 Oct 2016 · 1 response

The government’s new tax reform plan is crucial for restoring fiscal health, and preserving Colombia’s investment grade. We expect it to be approved in a watered-down, though still decent, form by December, as the political scenario for its passage is far from ideal. That should be enough to make...

Turning point
VENEZUELA · Report · 24 Oct 2016

The focus of political conflict is no longer the recall referendum. It has turned to constitutionality and legality of Maduro’s government.

Week of October 24
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

A week full of important events ahead: The House may conclude the second round vote on the Federal Spending Amendment. The Accounts Court of the Union (TCU) rules on whether the BNDES must return R$ 100 billion to the Treasury. In the Federal Supreme Court (STF), the trial on retirements could ha...

What Will be the Size of the Easing Cycle?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 24 Oct 2016

Various controversies exist in the financial market regarding the execution of monetary policy. One of them refers to the size of the total cut in the interest rate. Another involves the pace of the initial movements by the Central Bank. The past few days have been marked by critiques by those wh...

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