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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Dialogue
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

The second round of internationally-mediated talks ended on November 12 produced a roadmap that could help restore constitutional order but the path towards regime change is longer than the opposition wants. The opposition’s leadership paid a high cost by accepting the mediator’s proposal to post...

Unemployment Rises in the Third Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Nov 2016

​Statistics South Africa’s Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), conducted during July to September 2016 (Q3:2016), shows that the unemployment rate increased to 27.1%, up from 26.6% for Q2:2016 and 26.7 for Q1:2016. See Graph 1. The slight quarter-on-quarter increase in the unemployment rate was...

The times they are a-changin’
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 22 Nov 2016

Change is here. In the past three months, the Philippines saw its highly popular President redefined Philippine foreign policy away from longstanding ally U.S., blessed the burial of ousted dictator Ferdinand Marcos at the Heroes’ Cemetery, re-engaged communist insurgents and Muslim militants in ...

MNB credit rates cut by 10-15bps this time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Today's was just another monthly Monetary Council rate-setting meeting which resulted in some sort of a loosening step. This time around, the Council cut the O/N credit rate by 15 bps and the 1-week credit rate by 10 bps, both to 0.9%. By this step, the upper part of the already heavily asymmetri...

SA President in a Political Stalemate
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

SA political economy scene has been hot, noisy, and increasingly bewildered over the past few weeks. There has not been much developments of any substance. I have been monitoring the situation carefully. There has been a great deal of political grand standing, tactical moves, threatening noise an...

Pdvsa's Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Nov 2016

Pdvsa missed paying in time interest on the PDVSA 9% 2021s, PDVSA 6% 2024s and PDVSA 9.75% 2035s as reported by Citibank, the paying agent, and Clearstream. We understand payments were still pending as of eob yesterday, Monday 21, 2016. PDVSA has only paid $135 million on the PDVSA’s 6.0% 2026s. ...

Efforts and Frustrations
PERU · Report · 21 Nov 2016

Toward the end of his first hundred days in office, President Pedro Pablo Kuczynski’s popularity has declined significantly. This is partly due to natural impatience over the government’s seeming slowness in addressing top public concerns, such as the economy and security. But two other reasons a...

Week of November 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Nov 2016

This week, governors meet with representatives of the government’s economic team to discuss financial aid to the states. In the Senate, an extensive voting agenda: repatriation, political reform, ISS reform and outsourcing. The Finance Ministry will release the new GDP projection for 2017, lower ...

External Shock and Increased Risks
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Nov 2016

The depth of the recession and clear signs of waning inflation until recently indicated a growing probability that the Central Bank could increase the pace of lowering the interest rate. But with the election of Donald Trump, capital that was going to emerging countries has shifted back to the Un...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 20 Nov 2016

AKP and MHP will begin negotiating in earnest on the details of the constitutional reform bill this week. We expect a compromise and a referendum in April-May. If MHP backtracks AKP could resort to early elections. Tensions with the EU are rising by the day. European Parliament could pass a mo...

GDP outlook worsens 10 days after demonetisation
INDIA · In Brief · 19 Nov 2016

It has now been more than ten days after the Prime Minister of India announced that the Rs 500 and the Rs 1000 notes will no longer be legal tender. The shock to the economy has not eased as hoped. Instead, the impact is spreading across the economy. At present various sectors are seeing an actua...

Taxes Down, Wages Up Sharply
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Nov 2016

Given improved financial fundamentals, Hungary is well positioned for market volatility from the unpredictability of the upcoming US administration. Furthermore, PM Orbán was one of the few government heads expressing support for Donald Trump before the vote, potentially earning some goodwill for...

Economics: Pemex Plan: Lingering Doubts
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2016

Last week, after a wait of several months, Petróleos Mexicanos announced its 2016-2021 Business Plan. CEO José Antonio González Anaya had been mentioning this plan since August, saying that it would define Pemex’s strategy and actions for the next five years, to overhaul the financial situation ...

Politics: Bracing for a Trump Administration
MEXICO · Report · 17 Nov 2016

The election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States has major implications for Mexico. The country was a central theme of the Republican campaign, and a good number of the president-elect’s campaign promises are directly related to Mexico. Some of them, such as repeal of t...

3Q16 GDP Accelerates
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Nov 2016

Bucking expectations, the local economy grew 7.1% in 3Q16, faster than the previous two quarters. The surprising performance was due to: (a) continuing strong household consumption, particularly on food and transport items; (b) sustained robust growth in fixed capital, with private construction b...

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