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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of March 7
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016

Repercussions from the 24th phase of the Lava-Jato Operation, conducted last week, continue to be felt in Brasília. With the publication of the STF decision on the procedure for the impeachment proceedings, the Court could rule on the questions presented by the House. There is considerable expect...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016

The recession worsened in 2015 and still has a long way to go. It is the result of ill-conceived decisions by the Rousseff administration, made worse by the government’s failure to react, because of the main objective of staying in power in the short run. The country’s political cauldron has been...

The Indications from the Latest GDP Data
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 07 Mar 2016

To understand what lies ahead, we need reliable information about what has happened. The announcement that GDP in the fourth quarter of 2015 fell by 1.4% in relation to the third (an annualized rate of 5.7%) reveals that the economy contracted by 3.8% last year. This also means seven consecutive ...

Unsustainable political and economic crises
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Mar 2016

Discontent among the population is converging against the president, and pressure for a change of government is increasing. Shortages of staple foods and medicines are now being compounded by water and power outages. Protests, organized criminal violence, and spontaneous citizen violence are on t...

Weekly Tracker: March 6-12
TURKEY · Report · 06 Mar 2016

We think both the investment community and the press devote far less attention to Monday’s EU-Turkey summit than it deserves. Its results could be historic turning points for both sides. The press is cautiously optimistic that EU and Turkey will reach a deal to keep refugees in Turkey, but we hav...

Rumors: Natalie Jaresko will be nominated for Prime Minister
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Mar 2016

Over the last few weeks there were many talks that Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko is a good candidate to replace Arseniy Yatsenyuk at the Prime minister post and to lead the country out of political and economic crisis. Today many insiders and even media reported that finally Natalie Jaresko ag...

Federal Police Operation targets Lula and adds fuel to the crisis
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2016

Former President Lula was targeted, this Friday, in the 24th Phase of the Lava-Jato Operation (Alethea). The consequences are very serious for the PT and, especially, for the government. The treasurer of President Dilma Rousseff’s campaign in 2010, José Di Fillippi, was also targeted.

New Federal Police Operation targets Lula
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Mar 2016

The Federal Police (PF) is currently at the home of former President Lula. This is the 24th chapter of the Lava-Jato Operation. The PF is also at the house of Lula’s son, as well as in the Lula Institute, the farm in Atibaia and the apartment in Guarujá, both allegedly his. Lula is also the ta...

​Erdogan’s proposals and HDP immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 03 Mar 2016

I’ve received two questions from a reader, the answers to which might be of interest to my readers. These are the questions: 1) While I have a lot of sympathy with your view that Erdogan/AKP will try to push for the exec presidency at some points this year, the presidential spokesman commented la...

Delcídio’s plea bargain heats up impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Delcídio do Amaral is, without a doubt, one of the best positioned senators in Congress. He has always had good transit with different groups and above-average political knowledge in the federal sphere. The fact that Delcídio signed a plea bargain deal is the precursor to an extraordinary poli...

Few Glimmers of Hope
MEXICO · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Economic activity has been generally disappointing over the past month. There were some bright spots, especially in consumption of goods and services, as Antad-affiliated retailers reported robust sales growth (up a real 8.8% y/y in January), while car manufacturers reported their best sales for ...

Inflation: Back to End-December Level
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2016

Consumer prices were broadly unchanged in February, compared with expectations of about a 0.3% increase, thanks mainly to the benign behavior of food prices. Given last year’s elevated base, the 12-month CPI-inflation dropped to 8.8% in February, down from 9.6% in January, basically back to where...

Referendum and early elections scenarios—once again
TURKEY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

Once again, I’m taking the opportunity to use questions posed by a reader to address issues which might interest my entire audience. These are the questions: “what is the earliest a referendum could take place? how would this unveil? what are the legalistic implications of a referendum and over w...

​Economic Heritage
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 02 Mar 2016

Both, Prat Gasy’s press conference regarding the pre-agreement with Holdouts (Monday afternoon) and president Macri’s address to the nation during the inauguration of the current congress session (yesterday) had one aspect in common: a strong and direct criticism regarding the economic heritage t...

A Corruption Deadlock
UKRAINE · Forecast · 02 Mar 2016 · 1 response

A political scandal, in which Minister of Economy Aivaras Abromavicius blamed cronies of President Poroshenko for corruption, is seizing public attention. The scandal made public an issue already disturbing Western donors: the “undercover” reforms the friends of the president and prime minister h...

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