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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Polls, Government and Succession
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Oct 2015

The latest CNT/MDA poll shows that the Dilma Rousseff Administration is still widely rejected by Brazilians. The changes in approval and disapproval came in within the margin of error (2.2 points).80.7% of interviewees disapprove of Dilma’s personal performance, while it is approved by only 15.9%.

Capital Outflow Fears Overstated
CHINA · Report · 28 Oct 2015

GDP growth and fixed asset investment both fell in Q3, and producer prices fell further, continuing their deflation cycle. GDP was up 6.9% y/y in Q3, down 0.1 pps from Q2. Industrial output was up 5.9%, down 0.4 pps. Fixed asset investment was up 6.8% y/y in September and 8.7% y/y in Q3. Quarterl...

Unemployment Rises as Economy Struggles
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Oct 2015

According to official statistics released by Stats SA (see Graph 1) South Africa’s unemployment rate rose to 25.5% in the third quarter of 2015 from 25% in the second quarter. This represents a 0.5 percentage point increase for the quarter. This is not good news for the country’s economy that has...

AKP divided: Coalition or third election?
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Oct 2015

I received another query from an esteemed reader, which asks: “Today I saw some news on Bloomberg quoting Mehmet Sahin and Ismet Yilmaz putting some risk on the possibility of a coalition involving the AKP. I would like to know if you think that the AKP will want to form a government with another...

Macri’s surprising election
ARGENTINA · Report · 27 Oct 2015

The very close results of the presidential election between the official candidate, Scioli, and its main contester, Macri, from the opposition alliance Cambiemos, represented a positive surprise for the market and a painful reality-check for the government. Scioli managed to gather 36.9% of th...

Congress Likely to Rubber Stamp Unremarkable New Budget
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 27 Oct 2015

Economic activity continues to grow at a healthy clip, rising an estimated 7.1% in Q3 and 6.7% y/y, with accumulated January to September growth at 6.4%. Inflation in September reached 0.16%; accumulated inflation for the first nine months of the year stood at 1.33%; and y/y inflation was 0.39...

No Man’s Land
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 26 Oct 2015

The October 25 Colombian elections have shown that Colombian politics nowadays is “no man’s land”. Despite the fact that Vargas-Lleras is the front-runner for 2018, these elections left him as a lone ranger, without firm multi-party support. On the other hand, the loss by the political left in Bo...

Week of October 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Fiscal matters will be the focus of the week, with the release of the new public accounts deficit. The TCU may analyze the government’s “fiscal maneuvers”. In the House, we highlight the vote on the bill that allows for the repatriation of funds held by Brazilians abroad. In Brasília, the PT disc...

The Crisis and the Conflict Between Fiscal and Monetary Policies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Brazil is not experiencing a balance of payments crisis: the current account deficits have been shrinking sharply and the reserves are plentiful. What exists is interplay of fiscal and political crises. The government does not have the strength to achieve the fiscal adjustment necessary to curb t...

Resolving NPLs in China
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Friday’s announcements on new monetary easing measure were expected by the market and do not imply any change in policy direction. They are largely a response to continued slowing but I do not expect them to interrupt the decline in GDP growth. - Unfortunately measures that relieve debt serv...

Guatemala: Jimmy Morales elected president
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 Oct 2015

Jimmy Morales, of the right wing party PCN-Nación, won yesterday´s second round presidential election against Sandra Torres, of the center-left party UNE. Although the total turnout was low (only 54% of people registered went to vote), Morales won by a wide margin (69% to 31%). He will be sworn i...

Monetary Policy: A New Signal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 26 Oct 2015

The COPOM kept the interest rate at 14.25%, but stopped indicating the intention to attain the inflation target of 4.5% in 2016. Because of the deepening recession and inflationary shock coming from the loosening of fiscal policy, the Central Bank announced it will maintain the SELIC rate at 14.2...

Local elections: pro-reformists forces lead
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

On October 25th Ukrainians have been electing local MPs and mayors of the cities. Interesting that new law on local elections was approved in July 2015 just few months before the voting. As a result, rules of the game were totally changed and created a lot of confusion. In essence, there were int...

Ballotage it is! And Macri even managed an initial lead over Scioli.
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 26 Oct 2015

With so far 76% of the votes accounted for, the prelaminar results indicate that there will be a second round presidential election on November the 22nd, i.e. Scioli did not manage to win in the first round. Not only did the governor of the Province of Buenos Aires miss the 40% hurdle (so far wit...

Weekly Tracker: October 25-31
TURKEY · Report · 25 Oct 2015

This week’s Tracker is solely dedicated to election results and coalition scenarios. October polls assign very little odds to an outright AKP victory, but the party might produce 270-275 seats, sufficient to be tempted into a third election. In case of a hung-parliament, AKP-CHP is the most li...

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