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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Week of March 22
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 22 Mar 2016

This will be a short week due to the holidays (Thursday and Friday). The Impeachment Committee sets its work schedule. The government may announce economic measures, including the bill on state and municipal debt, and fiscal reform, with a spending ceiling. Measures related to the My House, My Li...

Should Brazil Use its International Reserves?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2016

Frequent pressures have been exerted in the sense of “use the reserves to stimulate renewed economic growth”. The Central Bank knows the history of the many foreign exchange crises experienced by the country, all of them produced by economic policy mistakes, and certainly has developed institutio...

Admirable precision or convenient accounting?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 21 Mar 2016

The Ministry of Finance just reported the fiscal balance figures for 2015. The results indicate that budget management was right on target: the deficit of the Central Government reached almost exactly the goal for the year, DOP 72.7 bn or 2.38% of GDP. The striking thing is that until October,...

Countercyclical Measures?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Mar 2016

In an extreme gesture, aiming to muffle the political crisis, Dilma Rousseff decided to appoint Lula to be her new chief of staff. It was an act of desperation with very low chances of succeeding. So far he has been barred from assuming the position by injunctions. Last week the great majority of...

Weekly Tracker: March 20-26
TURKEY · Report · 20 Mar 2016

EU and Turkey agreed on a temporary deal to swap Syrian refugees, which gives us little hope that the former takes Turkey seriously as a strategic partner. For AKP visa-free travel was the most important concession, which was conditionally granted, and might serve as a harbinger of a referendum o...

Breakdown of the Impeachment Committee
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2016

On March 17, 65 members of the Special Committee that will analyze the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff were elected, with a slight oppositionist leaning. Parties in the governing coalition elected 44 members to the committee, the opposition appointed 17, and four are independent. However,...

An Interest Rate Hike amidst Low Economic Growth and High Macroeconomic Volatility
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Mar 2016

The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) decision to increase the repurchase (repo) rate by 25 basis points at its March 2016 meeting, after having raised it by 50 basis points at its previous (and first) meeting of 2016, did not come as a surprise. Although the South African economy is still unde...

Lula’s appointment fails to solve Dilma’s problems
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2016

On Thursday afternoon, Judge Sérgio Moro, responsible for the Lava-Jato Operation, removed the secrecy of telephone wiretaps targeting former President Lula. The conversations recorded by the Federal Police, which include dialogue with President Dilma Rousseff, have intensified the political cris...

Moody's Visiting SA in the Middle of Political Dramas: Downgrade
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 18 Mar 2016

South Africa's sovereign credit rating is under review. The risk is a junk-status downgrade! Earlier this week, the Moody's team arrived in SA in the midst of a huge political drama engulfing the President and some of his corrupt dealings with the Gupta family business-a diversified business grou...

Economics: Pemex Rescue Plans Fall Short
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2016

On February 8, President Enrique Peña appointed José Antonio González as the new General Director of Petróleos Mexicanos. Nine days later, the Ministry of Finance announced the company’s budget was being slashed by 100 billion pesos. The new CEO presented the company’s preliminary consolidated ...

Politics: New Viceroys Key to 2018 Campaign
MEXICO · Report · 17 Mar 2016

The importance of the gubernatorial elections to take place this June, a full two years before the next presidential contest, resides in the enormous power state governors have acquired over the past 15 years, and the considerable prerogatives they derive from the political, territorial and budge...

Lula: The last move against the impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Mar 2016

The appointment of former President Lula to the Civil House Ministry (the equivalent of Chief of Staff) is a risky move that gives us an idea of the government’s current desperation. In appointing Lula, President Dilma Rousseff is, in practice, abdicating her government. Lula will try to resta...

More Complication for Fidesz
HUNGARY · Report · 16 Mar 2016

Detailed GDP data for Q4 confirms the preliminary 2.9% growth for the whole of 2015. Excluding agriculture, growth even accelerated slightly from 2014. On the supply side, growth was driven by manufacturing, mainly the car industry, and some service sectors. On the demand side, it was propelled b...

Turkish politics: It’s a totally new ball game
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Mar 2016

I’m preparing to write one of the most difficult Weeklies of this year and thought it important to share some of my initial views with my readers, because the three developments I’ll mention may have an important influence on Turkey’s risk premium. Since they act in opposite directions, I leave i...

The Chances of Impeachment Have Increased
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Mar 2016

Executive Summary In recent days the real has appreciated, the CDS quotations have fallen, stock prices have risen and longer term interest rates have declined. These were not movements prompted by signs the Rousseff administration was “coming to its senses”, changing its economic policy bearing...

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