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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Welcome to a Turbulent Spring
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2016

The politics section is dedicated to explaining AKP’s three contradictory policy goals; the building of a patronage society at home, gaining regional influence and fitting in with the Western alliance. The growing threat from PKK and Syrian Kurds, as well as Russia, rendered immediacy to the acco...

Final fiscal data for 2015 and news on fiscal policy offer little clue on rating upgrade outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2016

Earlier this week, the ESA2010 deficit of the 2015 general government was reported at 1.9% of GDP (against 2.3% in 2014 and a 2.4% target), whereas the consolidated gross debt ratio for end-2015 came out at 75.3% of GDP (down from 76.2% one year before). Both figures were slightly better than pre...

Uncertainties surrounding the impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2016

The trend is still for the approval of the impeachment process in the House, but the battle has not been won. Below, a list of 12 variables that could decide whether the impeachment is approved or rejected.

Going Independent
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Indonesians politics has entered into a very interesting territory in the form of the Jakarta’s election. Jakarta, as the capital city of Indonesia, has become new bell weather for the Indonesian politics since the ascent of the former Jakarta’s Governor to become the Indonesian President. Theref...

Uncertainty continues to rise
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There seem to be a lot of rumors swirling around about the leadership, but Beijing is always filled with rumors, and the seeming intensification may just be a consequence of the political calendar. Next year, of course, is the 18th Party Congress, in ...

Impressive Headline, Details Not So...
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and a higher-than-expected – 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%; Table 1). In seasonally- and working day-adjusted (WDA) terms, growth was a more modest 0.75%, q/q, or a SAAR of about 3%. T...

South Africa’s Economic Woes Continue into the last quarter of 2015
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 31 Mar 2016

South Africa’s Growth: South Africa’s economic woes continued into the last quarter of 2015, with economic growth slowing down further during this period. What’s more, GDP growth also decelerated for 2015 as whole, placing GDP growth below the 2% growth that had been projected at the beginning of...

CNI/Ibope: Disapproval of the government remains stable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The CNI/Ibope poll released today shows that the government’s popularity remains stable compared to December 2015. The numbers are still overwhelmingly negative. The elevated rejection of the government (according to CNI/Ibope, the percentage of “bad/very bad” evaluations is the highest since the...

The Economy After the Holdouts Solution
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The government delivered quite positively the first phase of its program of “economic normalization”. A key step was the progress in resolving the long-standing litigation with the holdouts. This includes the constructive negotiations and agreements already signed with nearly 90% of the holdouts ...

Stagnation Ahead
UKRAINE · Forecast · 31 Mar 2016

Rather confusing signals for the Ukrainian economy emanated from the first months of this year. On the one hand, resource prices strengthened, meaning that deeper economic decline is unlikely. On the other, a corruption scandal involving President Petro Poroshenko’s cronies has effectively blocke...

Headline GDP is impressive, but the details are much less so
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and higher-than-expected -- 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%). The figure no doubt makes an impressive headline, but the details suggest some caution. First, in seasonally- and working day...

SA Constitutional Court Issues Verdict on the President and the Parliament
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 31 Mar 2016

Arguably, today's SA Constitutional Court's (ConCourt) verdict is its most significant judgement in the country's young and evolving constitutional democracy. The verdict deals with an important clarification about the binding, or otherwise, of the country's Public Protector Office findings- one ...

PMDB leaves governing coalition, initiates Temer Plan
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2016

The PMDB has officially left Dilma Rousseff’s governing coalition during a public act that lasted 4 minutes. The party also decided that all party members in the Executive branch must resign their posts. The former minister of the Civil Aviation Secretariat (SAC), Moreira Franco, stated that part...

Maduro Needs Rain
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Mar 2016

The opposition hasn’t decided which path to take to force Maduro out of office before his term ends, whether to push for a recall referendum or to seek a constitutional amendment. Neither path would be easy: both would involve going through the government-friendly Supreme Tribunal of Justice, the...

Two heads-up: Terror and referendum risks
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Mar 2016

I wish to share with my audience two time-sensitive pieces of information that I believe are pertinent to economic and market performance. Before I start, it is important to emphasize that I do all my research based on open sources and have no private information of the likelihood of either event...

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