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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Governability in Question
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017

Following a couple of weeks of unexplained gasoline shortages, the government announced on December 27 that on New Year’s Day gasoline prices would rise by 20% on average, this following years of assurances by President Enrique Peña that the energy reform would do away with such "gasolinazos". Fe...

Election Policies and a Labor Shortage will Dominate in 2017
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2017

Fresh data reflects the continuation of weak growth into Q4 2016. Evidence of this was decreasing output in industry and construction, weakening external trade dynamics and decelerating wage and retail sales growth, as shown by the October, and partly November, statistics. 2016 GDP growth is u...

Dealing with an age-old problem
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

In the heat of the summer campaign, then candidate Rodrigo Duterte promised to raise old age pensions for private sector employees, a proposal that was vetoed by then President Benigno Aquino. Told by his economic managers after he won that granting pension increases without a compensatory revenu...

Draft of the IMF Memorandum
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Jan 2017

Yesterday media published a draft of the IMF memorandum (see attached). Someone from the Cabinet shared with journalists a version of the document. It’s not a final one and very likely the official document will be pretty much different. But still it’s of interest what is currently discussed with...

Week of January 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jan 2017

Two important international events: the World Economic Forum (Davos) and the inauguration of Donald Trump as president of the US. The federal government negotiates a fiscal recovery agreement with Rio de Janeiro, which could be announced by next week. The PT discusses filing a case against the ...

No Bounce Back
CHILE · Report · 16 Jan 2017

In 2016, total exports were the lowest since 2009, but there was a rebound towards the end of the year. This rebound was widespread. The value of imports of capital goods continued the upward trend, which is good signal on investment. That’s the good news. In November, the Monthly Index of Eco...

How Perspectives Changed in 2017 in Relation to a Year Ago?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2017

At the start of 2016, inflation was higher than 10%; fear of “fiscal dominance” had raised the quotation of Brazil’s 10-year CDS above 600 basis points and caused the real to depreciate to R$4.00/US$; and the most optimistic GDP projections were for contraction between 3% and 4%. Now as 2017 gets...

The Monetary Easing Cycle Intensifies
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Jan 2017

At the last COPOM meeting, the Central Bank not only cut the SELIC rate by 75 basis points, it also indicated that until a contrary indication this will be the pace of cuts for the coming meetings. This dragged down the longer term interest rates. It was a correct decision in light of the steep d...

A Brief Recap on the GDP Data
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2017

The Turkish Statistics Institute (Turkstat) introduced very significant revisions to the National Income Accounts (NIA) data in early December, at the time of the release of the third quarter growth stats. We learnt, among other things, that we were quite a bit richer than we thought -- by about ...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 15 Jan 2017

We are very worried about the state of politics in Turkey at a very fundamental level because the country is becoming more detached from the reality as we speak. We identify this malaise as “self-hypnosis”, which has a very ugly anti-Westernism at its core. The new paradigm is in contradiction wi...

Tax police ‘accidental’ reform
UKRAINE · In Brief · 15 Jan 2017

In December 2016 parliament accidentally deprived powers of the tax police. A package of tax changes was under consideration, and by some mistake the tax police was cancelled. We may never know who was the author of this "mistake" but that’s what happened. The tax police was one of the key instru...

CPI-inflation beat expectations in December, marks significant upside risk in 2017-2018
HUNGARY · In Brief · 14 Jan 2017

CPI-inflation came out at 0.4% mom, 1.8% yoy in December, the highest yoy rate since June 2013. The average analyst (including us) expected 0.1% mom, 1.5% yoy, and judged by the Q4 average inflation forecast released just before Christmas, the MNB seems to have shared the consensus view.The bulk ...

Bracing for a difficult year
VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Jan 2017 · 2 responses

Maduro gears up to 2017 with a more loyal cabinet, bringing in left-wing radical civilians and leaving intact the military component. He will continue managing emergencies one by one, hoping that better oil prices and creative financial engineering will allow him to overcome crises. The new cabin...

Week of January 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jan 2017

The highlight of the week is the Central Bank meeting to set the benchmark interest rate (Selic). IBGE releases inflation data for December and accumulated results for 2016. In politics, the succession for president of the Lower House is heating up in Brasília, with Federal Representatives Jovair...

Economic Activity is Still Weak
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jan 2017

In our last Quarterly Outlook we projected a slow recovery of economic activity starting in the second quarter of 2017. Despite the slight improvement in some indicators, the most recent data still show signs of contraction of both household consumption and gross fixed capital formation. GDP prob...

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