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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

China gives the year a wild beginning
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 08 Jan 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: The wild gyrations in the Chinese stock market this week don't tell us much about the direction of the Chinese economy, but they do tell us just how much uncertainty there is, both in the outlook for the economy and in the way Beijing will manage it.Thre...

Summer is Hot, But the Economy Stays Cold
CHILE · Report · 07 Jan 2016

The Central Bank’s latest Monetary Policy Report, published in December, contains few changes in monetary policy rate (TPM) outlook from the last report, published in September, though it is slightly more hawkish. The Bank sees the negative pressure of slower growth as more than offset by peso de...

Remittance risks from the Middle East
PHILIPPINES · Report · 07 Jan 2016

As the world trains its eyes on the collapsing diplomatic relations in the Middle East, the Philippines is understandably concerned about the fate of its 2.5 million overseas workers in the region, a large number of whom are based in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Filipinos who are either doi...

All sorts of good news on the 2015 budget, not very surprisingly
HUNGARY · In Brief · 06 Jan 2016

Today's press conference held by economy minister Mihály Varga suggested that largely everything went really well with the implementation of the 2015 budget. Mr. Varga said that the Maastricht definition general government deficit came out around 2% of GDP, a historical low and materially below t...

Inflation Ends 2015 At Almost 9%
TURKEY · Report · 04 Jan 2016

Consumer prices rose by a more than expected 0.2% in December (consensus, no change), taking the 12-month rate sharply higher to 8.8%, from 8.1% in November. CPI-inflation hence ended the year markedly above target (5%) for yet another year (Graph 1), as well as above both the first (5.5%) and th...

Weekly Tracker: January 3-9
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jan 2016

Welcome back to the turbulent and irrational world of Turkish politics. Since our last writing, much that is of import has transpired, which requires detailed analysis. On the other hand, we are aware that you must have at least 19 other markets to catch up on, thus want to prevent information ov...

Brighter Prospects for 2016
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Dec 2015

As the year comes to a close, we take stock of the main trends of 2015, and make predictions for 2016. At the beginning of 2015, the Indonesian landscape was mired in major political uncertainty, with the presidential election leaving the new government in a weak position, and dealing with a c...

Hungary sovereign credit may be upgraded in November 2016
HUNGARY · In Brief · 30 Dec 2015

The top three rating agencies published their revision dates for Hungary's sovereign credit for 2016. Moody's will make its first revision on March 4, followed by July 8 and then by November 4. S&P will look at Hungary on March 18 and September 16, and Fitch Ratings will do so on May 20 and Novem...

The Challenges Ahead for 2016
PANAMA · Report · 30 Dec 2015

Amidst regional distress, our expectation is that Panama’s GDP will grow 5.6%-5.7% this year. We expect private consumption to continue to offset the fallout from lower private and public investment, as well as the impact of a stronger US Dollar on net exports. The MEF is projecting growth at a s...

A Sad Lack of Growth Prospects
UKRAINE · Forecast · 30 Dec 2015

All indicators suggest that 2016 will see GDP growth of 1.2% y/y . The bad news is that this minor rise is primarily due to a low comparative base, after two years of contraction. Unfortunately, we don’t see solid evidence that growth will continue.External demand, traditionally at the core of th...

The Year Ahead: Peace, Tax Reform, and Mild Growth
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Dec 2015

Colombian GDP grew by 3.2% in Q3 – a reasonably good result, given the economic shock. Strong domestic demand has helped compensate for falling exports. Commerce GDP was up a surprising 4.8% in Q3. Private consumption has climbed on both unusually low unemployment and a still-dynamic credit marke...

A Promising Start (but Big Challenges Ahead)
ARGENTINA · Report · 28 Dec 2015

In just two weeks, Mauricio Macri has already followed through on his first electoral promise: to eliminate the exchange rate controls and the main taxes and restrictions on foreign trade. The realignment of relative prices that started with the exchange rate unification and the elimination of...

Explosion of Candidates Under Growth Stagnation
PERU · Report · 28 Dec 2015

We expect at least ten of the 17 current presidential candidates to stay in the race, after the January 11th deadline to register to run in the April 10th elections. December polls show Keiko Fujimori maintaining her lead, with voter intentions at 30%- 35%, and Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski a distant sec...

Parliament approves budget-2016
UKRAINE · In Brief · 25 Dec 2015

MPs finally voted in budget-2016 and all supporting legislations including tax changes. The final version of budget was not released yet since many last-minute changes were introduced. However, from transcripts we know that the deficit was left unchanged UAH 83.7 billion (3.7% of GDP) as the IMF ...

Pollution Made Priority, Despite Growth Slowdown
CHINA · Report · 24 Dec 2015

With the IMF’s inclusion of the RMB in its SDR basket, the People’s Bank of China on December 11th published an “RMB index,” against 13 major currencies. This indicates that the RMB exchange rate has officially shifted back to its formally announced regime of “managed floating with reference to a...

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