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Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

As usually happens in times of crisis, in 2017 the political and economic scenarios will continue to be symbiotically intertwined. That interdependence is evident, for example, in the behavior of asset prices, which continue to be commanded by events that affect the joint probability of two hypot...

Week of February 5
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

The government will present details about the economic stimulus measures announced late last year. President Michel Temer receives a visit from President of Argentina Mauricio Macri in Brasília. On the agenda for the meeting are Argentina’s new policies for the automotive sector. In the Lower Hou...

What Does Industrial Production Say About the Speed of Recovery?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Feb 2017

Brazil is nearing the end of the long and deep recession that began in the second quarter of 2014. In phases like this it is common for some sectors to start recovering while others are still contracting. This is one of the reasons to avoid making inferences about economic trends based on high-fr...

Former President Alejandro Toledo is accused of receiving a $ 20 million bribe. An arrest order very likely
PERU · In Brief · 05 Feb 2017

Jorge Barata until recently Odebrecht’s CEO in Peru has accused ex-President Alejandro Toledo (2001-2006) in the context of Barata's collaboration arrangement with Brazilian justice, of accepting a $ 20 million bribe for aiding Odebrecht to win an PPP contract to build the Interoceanic Highway th...

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 05 Feb 2017

The politics section lays out a detailed political map for the next three-to-six months in anticipation of the upcoming Quarterly Report. While threats to stability and markets dominate the outlook, some notable upsides are still present. The referendum process will occupy the headlines. Judging ...

Relatively weak retail sales data in December
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Feb 2017

Retail sales rose by 3.2% yoy on calendar-adjusted basis in December, according to data published this morning. This means an average 3.4% yoy growth in Q4, down from 4.4% yoy growth in Q4, and also the weakest number since Q3 2014. Retail sales still expanded by 4.6% in full-year 2016, moderatel...

President Zuma’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Calm before the Storm
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2017

South Africa is abuzz with speculation about President Zuma’s pending Cabinet reshuffle. In fact since August 2016, and in the wake of the local government elections, expectations of cabinet reshuffle have been building up. In part because a couple of ministerial positions have been vacant follow...

Headline Inflation Surges in January
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2017

​Consumer prices rose by a markedly higher-than-expected 2.5% in January, m/m, leading to a surge in the 12-month rate to 9.2%, from 8.5% in December. Sharp jumps in food and transportation categories are largely to blame for the increase – as well as for the deviation from our forecast. Producer...

An Economic Outlook Less Dire than Expected, But A Tough Road Ahead on the International Front
MEXICO · Report · 02 Feb 2017

Economic data over the past month revealed continuing but mostly restrained growth. Mexico’s monthly GDP proxy showed the economy growing at a 12-month pace of 2.4% in November, led higher by gains of 12.6% by the primary sector and 3.4% in the case of services, while industrial activity was larg...

Export Turnaround
INDONESIA · Report · 02 Feb 2017

In the past few months, Indonesian exports have shown signs of a turnaround. While exports had been showing declines since 2012, in the past few months we have seen export figures that have been growing year over year. This turnaround has been accompanied by the increase in commodities prices. At...

The budget announcement for 2017-18
INDIA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

The economy has faced considerable headwinds through a combination of weak investment demand, a balance sheet problem in many large firms and most banks, and the demonetisation episode. There was a range of possibilities which were being discussed of a relatively gloomy nature. These included int...

We forecast lower growth in 2017 than the consensus… but it will be a solid one
PANAMA · Forecast · 01 Feb 2017

With uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. administration’s policy stance on trade and fiscal spending, it is difficult to pinpoint the direction of the global economy. While fiscal stimulus has the potential to boost the U.S. economy in the short term, U.S. President Donald Trump’s well-documente...

External Conditions Shift to Negative
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

El Salvador closed 2016 with negative inflation, a first at yearend since 1999 (-0.9% y/y). Estimates of last year’s economic growth are controversial. The official figure of 2.5% y/y is considered optimistic by private sector representatives and analysts, and by international organizations like ...

Mind The Gap
COLOMBIA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

Fiscal results for 2016 presented few surprises aside from a slight increase in the deficit, relative to the forecast. What was surprising was an increase in income tax collection, which outperformed the COP 1.6 trillion target. But VAT collection underperformed by COP 3.4 trillion. GDP also unde...

Trade Uncertainties Ahead
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2017

The economy in 2016 displayed completely new characteristics. On the one hand, real estate and automobile consumption recovered strongly, and M1 grew rapidly. Producer prices rebounded, to positive territory. On the other hand, quarterly GDP growth rates were almost flat all year. It seems that ...

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