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When China sneezes...
CHILE · Report · 02 Feb 2016

January’s global market volatility had strong implications for the Chilean economy.Fortunately, it appears that at least some of the turmoil was an over-reaction. We will know the actual damage to the real economy later this year, when we have data for the first quarter. In November the Monthl...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2016

The country continues to suffer the effects of the worst recession in the past 30 years. The impossibility of putting the economy on a growth path without adopting reforms that reduce the upward trend of government spending and interrupt the unsustainable rise of the public debt, combined with th...

Gallup-Hoy poll reiterates Medina's lead in voter preference but also that he's just above the 50% mark
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 Feb 2016

Today, the most reputed political survey in the country, Gallup-Hoy, released the results for the poll conducted on January 24-27. The results reiterate that President Medina leads the voter preference for the May elections with 51.8%. while 35.7% of those who responded expressed preference for L...

Vortex
VENEZUELA · Report · 01 Feb 2016

In the eight weeks since parliamentary elections handed the opposition a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly, the government and opposition have tested each other’s limits and gone to the brink of total institutional breakdown. For now, both sides have an interest in preventing a full bl...

Week of February 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Congress and the Superior Courts return to work. Aside from important votes in the legislature, votes for the new party leaders will be the focus this week. Representatives of the governing coalition meet with Ministers Nelson Barbosa, Jaques Wagner and Ricardo Berzoini. On Friday, February 5, th...

A Challenging Climate for the Next Administration
PERU · Forecast · 01 Feb 2016

The international and the domestic milieus are unpromising, in terms of helping Peru recover the dynamic growth it has enjoyed for the past decade. But our base scenario is moderately optimistic, given slightly rising growth—likely ending 2015 at around 3%—with better performance in mining and fi...

Fiscal Policy: More Transparency, but the Situation is Difficult
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Last week the fiscal policy data for December were announced, incorporating the payment of the “budget rollovers” (pedaladas) from previous years. The good news is that 2016 is starting without the hangover of liabilities from past years. However, although the fiscal statistics are now more trans...

Both Growth and the Yuan Will Stabilize
CHINA · Report · 01 Feb 2016

Real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. This is causing great consternation in international markets. Yet the weakening growth trend is diminishing. GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. The sl...

Weekly Tracker: Jan 31- Feb 6
TURKEY · Report · 31 Jan 2016

Peace talks in Geneva are finally underway, but expectations for a break-through to end the five-year war are very low. Meanwhile, Russia is cooperating with PYD, the Syrian Kurdish entity, to encircle Turkey from the South, a harbinger of more regional tensions to come. The campaign to put do...

El Salvador: When it Comes to the Economy, We Disagree
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

Recent government estimates of economic activity are controversial in the business sector, which complains that government is painting an inappropriately optimistic view of the economy. Businesspeople question whether growth based on private consumption financed by remittances, and by the tempora...

Is This Going to Work?
COLOMBIA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

The official forecast for the central government deficit is 3.6% of GDP (around 30 trillion pesos) this year, up from 3% last year and 2.2% in 2014. But this year’s deficit might be closer to 4.2% of GDP, as keeping it at 3.6% depends on spending cuts. The budget was based on overly optimistic as...

Projections stand in spite of turbulent economic and political environment
PANAMA · Report · 29 Jan 2016

We summarize in this document the impact of some key events in order to assess the economic panorama for Panama this year. Some of them are of internal nature: The new banking regulations (adding to the likely increase in the cost of funds to local banks) that may increase the lending rate...

Dominican Republic: Medina is ahead in voting preferences...but not as much as previously thought
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 Jan 2016

A new survey by Asisa Research, a well-known poll firm, found that if elections were to be held today, President Danilo Medina (PLD and allies) would get 54.8% of the votes while Luis Abinader (PRM and allies) would get 38.6%. Guillermo Moreno, nominated by Alianza Pais and allies, would get 3% o...

The SARB Kicks off the Year by Raising the Repo Rate by 50 basis Points
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 28 Jan 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) opted to increase the repurchase (repo) rate, the country’s benchmark interest rate, by 50 basis points during its first meeting of the year in 2016. This has brought the repo rate up from 6.25% to 6.75% per annum. The i...

Starting 2016 With New Determination
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Jan 2016

Executive Summary Walini is the name of an unproductive tea plantation outside Bandung, the provincial capital of West Java. At the time of this writing, President Jokowi broke ground for the development of the first high-speed train to connect Jakarta and Bandung. The 140 kilometer distance b...

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