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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: The Puzzle of Conflicting Indicators
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The contrast between the weak behavior of Mexico’s GDP in the first six months of 2015 and various other economic indicators prompted the head of Mexico’s Tax Authority (SAT), Aristóteles Núñez, and some analysts to begin arguing in October that there was a probability that the methodology the au...

Politics: Administration’s Second-half Focus
MEXICO · Report · 23 Dec 2015

The second half of the six-year administration of President Enrique Peña will be defined by two major issues that are interlinked: the effective implementation of the structural reforms that were passed during the current government’s first year in office, and trying to manage a presidential succ...

Mixed Growth, Fragile Finances
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 23 Dec 2015

Costa Rica is headed toward the second lowest GDP growth rate in the region, after El Salvador. Indicators show some improvement, though still suggest pessimism. The outlook for 2016 looks somewhat better: both imports and exports are on track to reverse their decreasing trend soon, as the effect...

Choosing more debt, more unemployment, or transfers
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 23 Dec 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: In 2016 the PBoC will evaluate the change in the value of the RMB not just in dollar terms but increasingly in terms of a wider basket of currencies. We should not discount the possibility, however, that after a quarter or two of dollar strength o...

A tight race
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 23 Dec 2015

In recent days, three pollsters, seen generally as independent and trustworthy, published the results of their December surveys on voter preferences for the next President of the country. There are notable differences in the numbers especially in the one done by Pulse Asia, where VP Jejomar Binay...

MPC: On a Wing and a Prayer
TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee surprised markets today – us, too, though we had not completely ruled out such an outcome – by not changing any of the rates (see chart). This is a pretty disappointing move that is hard to explain, other than, of course, by political motives. Otherwise, why would th...

Correa The Chess Player
ECUADOR · Report · 22 Dec 2015

Six months ago, Correa was ready to run for another election in 2017 and was strongly pushing reforms to the Constitution that would allow indefinite re-election. A few weeks ago, he declared his presence in the 2017 elections was not necessary given the evidence of a week and not articulated opp...

New Alliance Reconfigures the Election Scenario
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 22 Dec 2015

The electoral scenario keeps shifting, sometimes in surprising ways. Last week, the social democratic PRM and the conservative PRSC – the latter a traditional ally of the ruling PLD -- announced an electoral alliance, after negotiations between the PRSC and the PLD failed to generate a satisfacto...

Whirlwind
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The opposition won in a landslide on December 6, taking 58 percent of the national vote and a two-thirds National Assembly majority. Participation reached 74 percent, a record for legislative elections. Voters turned on the powerful heads of Maduro’s ruling coalition by voting against coalitio...

Week of December 21
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015

This is the last week of legislative activity in Congress. According to the Constitution, congressmen begin their recess this Wednesday (12/23). On Monday, Lower House President Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) meets with party leaders. The main item on the agenda is to discuss the impeachment proceedi...

The Latest Economic Activity Indicators
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 21 Dec 2015

Last week two important indicators of economic activity were published: a) the IBC-Br, pointing to a further GDP contraction; and b) the real retail sales data (restricted sense, excluding cars and construction materials), which showed slight growth after eight straight months of decline. This la...

MPC Preview: Simplification to Start
TURKEY · Report · 21 Dec 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee will hold its regular monthly meeting tomorrow to decide on the short-term interest rates. In line with the messages delivered earlier by the CBRT, the market expects – generally speaking – a hike of the weekly repo rate and the O/N borrowing rate, currently at 7.5% ...

Policy-makers show signs of hyperactivity
HUNGARY · In Brief · 19 Dec 2015 · 3 responses

Less than two weeks after a series of MNB comments on what they were going to do to loosen policy soon, by which they managed to talk DOWN the forint moderately, and just days after the December rate-setting meeting of the Monetary Council, at which they took no new measures at all, policy-makers...

Fighting for Growth in 2016
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Dec 2015

Though slightly stronger in Q3, GDP growth’s decelerating trend has also been confirmed. Y/y growth was pulled down by this year’s poor agricultural results; if we exclude those, the slowdown from 2014 is barely noticeable. However, the real story is told by the recent q/q growth rates, which sug...

The STF reinforces the role of the Senate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015

The decision by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) increases the confusion that the impeachment proceedings have added to Brazilian politics. It favored the government and displeased the opposition. The majority of the ministers decided that it is up to the Senate to install the process, or not. Thi...

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