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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Nov 7
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Brazil Economics databank Nov 15
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Central America databank Oct 31
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Chile databank Oct 23
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Nov 6
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Dominican Republic databank Nov 20
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Ecuador databank Oct 23
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Gulf Countries databank Nov 22
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Hungary databank Nov 21
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India databank Oct 30
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Mexico databank Nov 15
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Oct 15
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Philippines databank Nov 8
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Russia Economics databank Nov 13
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South Africa databank Nov 1
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Nov 12
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Venezuela databank Nov 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - LATIN AMERICA IN 2025: HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE?...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Politics: Elections 2016: A closer look
MEXICO · Report · 18 May 2016
Until not long ago it looked as though the PRI would have little problem winning most all of the 12 governors’ mansions that will be up for grabs the first Sunday of June. But following more than five weeks of campaigning, the races have tightened considerably, and the governing party looks to be...
Immunities vote adds to political uncertainty
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016
Debating and voting all night, the Turkish Grand Assembly failed to secure the 367 votes necessary to ratify the two amendments to lift the immunities of those deputies who are under indictment or already convicted of various crimes. The motion to advance to voting of the two articles of the prov...
Are these the last days of Mehmet Simsek in the administration?
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 May 2016
Luck has it that I must leave town on a family matter between Wednesday and Sunday, leaving you without updates until early Monday hours regarding developments in AKP. I’m hoping to fire out a final update early Wednesday to report on the outcome of the first round of voting for the lifting of th...
Surprising Weakness in Q1 GDP
HUNGARY · Report · 16 May 2016
GDP dropped by 0.8% qoq in Q1, a big negative surprise for both official and market analysts. Construction output fell by more than a quarter from Q1 2015, signaling a collapse of EU-backed fixed investment early this year. In addition, manufacturing growth greatly weakened, led by a small drop i...
Minister Pérez Abad charts the course
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 16 May 2016
Pérez Abad’s announcements confirm our perceptions, as explained in our most recent forecast report. The minister said the government is forcing imports to fall by 50% to $20 bn in 2016 by restricting access to official dollars by the private sector. We forecast a 56% decline to $16 bn. In his vi...
A New Central Bank President
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 May 2016
Concrete measures and strategic positions in the ministries will be announced this week. Michel Temer will have his first test in Congress, with the vote on the change to the 2016 fiscal target. The PT defines its strategy for the PMDB administration. Leaders in the House continue to search for ...
President Danilo Medina wins reelection with 62% of the votes
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 16 May 2016
Danilo Medina has been reelected as President of the Dominican Republic with 62% of the votes, according to preliminary data from the Junta Central Electoral (central board of elections). Challenging candidate Luis Abinader received 35% of the votes. Guillermo Moreno received almost 2% of the vot...
What are the Signs of Economic Activity?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 May 2016
With the release of the IBC-Br for March, we have virtually all the economic activity indicators for the first quarter of 2016, making it possible to estimate GDP in the first three months. The conclusion is that it contracted by roughly the same as in the last quarter of 2015. However, our leadi...
Forecast Updates for 2016 and 2017
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 16 May 2016
This addendum presents the detailed forecast tables we promised to send to accompany the forecast revisions published in the April 29, 2016 Quarterly Outlook. To help the reader to identify the changes with respect to the forecasts we published in the Quarterly Outlook for January 2016 we have hi...
Week of May 15
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2016
Starting with this week, we begin to fit together the pieces of Turkey’s multi-dimensional political puzzle. Our top candidate for premiership remains Mr. Binali Yildirim, though Messrs. Bekir Bozdag or Ismet Yilmaz can’t be ruled out. We can’t guarantee that economy czar Mehmet Simsek will retai...
On Guard
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2016
President Putin put an end to a long-lasting rivalry between law enforcement agencies by dissolving some and creating a new federal service, the National Guard, which will be in charge of all internal troops. The new agency that will have control over almost all armed units inside the country is ...
Very poor GDP data for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2016
The first estimate of Q1 GDP was a very bad surprise this morning, with -0.8% qoq, +0.5% yoy on sda basis. This went against a +2.3-2.4% yoy analyst consensus on Reuters and Bloomberg, and +2% yoy in Portfolio.hu's domestic poll. The Q1 data followed +1% qoq, 3% yoy in Q4 2015. All this seems to ...
Temer in Command
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016
Social Security reform, obligatory federal spending and control of public debt are the three priorities for the interim president.
Parliament gives green way for appointing Yuriy Lutsenko as General Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2016
Today parliament voted in a law that allows appointing General Prosecutor a person without legal education. This step was presented to the public as an effort to bring on board someone “not from the system”. At the same time critiques blame the authorities that this change in reality was designed...
Elections update
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 May 2016
This Sunday May 15 the Dominican Republic will hold national elections. These elections are complex because they are simultaneously at three levels: for President and Vice-President, for Congress (32 senators and 190 representatives), and municipal authorities. 158 Mayors (and deputy mayors) will...