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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A balanced budget in 2017?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Economy minister Varga said yesterday that 'I hope the Prime Minister's expectation that a zero percent budget is prepared can be met for 2017', adding his colleagues in the ministry are just working on a plan of this sort. From the context it was absolutely clear that by speaking of a zero perce...

Developments in Politics
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2016

The BJP's honeymoon period lasted 1.48 years. It ended when the results of the Bihar elections were announced on November 8, 2015. Yet there is little evidence of a change in course in response to these election results. A recent fracas at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, and more broadly, cultur...

Political risks are rising for Turkish assets
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Since the turn of the year, I’ve been very constructive on TL denominated assets, despite the visible tensions with Russia and the massive sell-off in the EM universe. After the developments of yesterday, I’m less so on account of two political risks having changed nature. First the Constitutiona...

Show must go on
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016 · 4 responses

It was a nice show with an attempt to dismiss the Cabinet. Now it would be difficult for western diplomats to blame the President that he did nothing for resolving political crisis. Poroshenko asked both Chief prosecutor and Prime-minister to resign and Chief prosecutor even complied with his req...

Chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

This nervous day is bringing its fruits. Prior to the Prime-minister report at the parliament President Poroshenko called publicly for resignation of Chief prosecutor Viktor Shokin and for resignation of Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. This move was positively perceived by observers since it wa...

Week of February 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2016

This will be a busy week. Members of the PT in the Senate discuss economic policy with Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa. In the House, the PMDB chooses its leader. Former President Lula is deposed at the Public Ministry in São Paulo. The presidency and the Senate have until Friday, February 19, to...

Changing the Cabinet?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

Today will be the moment of truth for the Cabinet of Aresniy Yatsenyuk. Prime-minister will be reporting to MPs for achievements of his Cabinet for the last year and parliament either approves the report or dismisses the Cabinet. The voting will be in the context of severe corruption scandal trig...

Growth Accelerated in Q4 2015
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Feb 2016

GDP growth accelerated sharply in Q4 2015, beating market expectation. The bright star must have been manufacturing, but a major upward revision of previous quarters’ data on sda basis also had a role. The VW scandal is not having a negative impact on Hungary. Indeed, Audi is planning to bring in...

The Resistence of Inflation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Feb 2016

The fate of those who make projections is that the target rarely stands still. At the start of 2015, the consensus was that inflation would remain high due to the coming adjustments of administered prices, which were repressed, after which it would start to decline. The projections at that moment...

Weekly Tracker: February 14-20
TURKEY · Report · 14 Feb 2016

Despite our passionate reasoning, rumors of a Turkish military intervention in Syria would not die, largely because Ankara keeps its options open. We argue once again that a military operation is not feasible. Meanwhile, Turkey-EU relations are improving, but at gunpoint.President Erdogan is open...

GDP growth was surprisingly robust in Q4 2015
HUNGARY · In Brief · 12 Feb 2016

Another interesting data set came out of KSH this morning. Real GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% yoy, on unadjusted basis, in Q4 2015, sharply up from 2.4% yoy in the previous quarter. This beat the average analyst expectation of 2.6% by a substantial margin. On sda basis, growth in Q4 was reported...

President Zuma’s 2016 State of the Nation Address: Maybe Too Little Too Late
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 12 Feb 2016

President Zuma’s State of Nation Addresses (SONA) during his second term in office have become synonymous with drama, chaos, insults and political entertainment inside and outside the Parliament. His personal conduct in office, his ruling political party’s support for him, and his government’s pe...

Old Actors In New Roles
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 11 Feb 2016

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has become extremely vocal in demonstrating his support of President Putin and has even directly threatened his political opponents, in the midst of suspicions of his connection to the murder of former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov. Kadyrov’s active involvement...

Economics: Trade Structure Poses Risks
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2016

The conditions prevailing in the international economy in recent months, which have translated into a severe contraction in the international price of oil as well as a drastic depreciation of the Mexican peso in relation to the dollar, have had and will continue to harbor diverse implications for...

Politics: Mexico’s City State and Gatopardismo
MEXICO · Report · 11 Feb 2016

President Enrique Peña signed a decree on January 29 to authorize implementation of the constitutional reform that brings to an end the existence of the Federal District as the seat of federal government and the capital of the Mexican Republic, replacing it with a new entity formally called Ciuda...

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