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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Building Fiscal Credibility
ARGENTINA · Report · 10 Mar 2017

As we leave behind the more leisurely summer months of January and February, economic and political activity returns to a more vertiginous path. President Macri’s Address to the Nation, at the opening session of Congress on March 1, and Treasury Minister Dujovne’s presentation of new quarterly fi...

Land reform on agenda
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled the third review for Ukraine for March 20th. No one expects surprises. A $1 billion loan is down the road. Now it’s a big question what should be done for next wire. In my opinion, the land market will be the main issue for fifth review. We see the ice was finall...

The IMF Executive Board meeting on Ukraine set for March 20
UKRAINE · In Brief · 09 Mar 2017

The IMF Executive Board scheduled third review for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility program for March 20th reported Vlad Rashkovan Deputy Director of Ukraine in the IMF. Previously, on March 4th the IMF reported that staff-level agreement with Ukraine on third review was reached and appro...

Politics: Turning Point for the PRD, and the Rest of the Left
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2017

For almost three decades one party, the PRD, has been the almost exclusive expression of the electoral left in Mexico, but as the 2018 elections draw near, its fate is in question. Torn by factional strife since its inception, the party now faces its greatest challenge to date as it is being ecli...

Economics: Current Account Bump a One-Off
MEXICO · Report · 09 Mar 2017

Banco de México recently published its balance of payments results for 2016, which showed a 27.9 billion dollar current account deficit, a result considerably less pronounced than that of 2015. Mexico was able to reduce its deficit thanks to less negative balances of services and non petroleum g...

Government Announces New Round of Infrastructure Concessions
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Mar 2017

The government announced a new package of infrastructure concessions, totaling R$45 billion in investments. Most of these projects had been previously announced, like the renewal of railways and the privatization of BR 101 in Santa Catarina. With an ambitious schedule, the Investments Partners...

Economy Rebounds, As Political Tension Mounts
UKRAINE · Report · 08 Mar 2017

January economic numbers were surprisingly positive. Industrial output expanded +5.6% y/y, up from +4.6% y/y in December. The CAD narrowed to a modest $26 million, driven by a 41% y/y surge in exports. The currency stabilized at UAH 27/dollar. In short, the economy is showing strong signs of a re...

Raqqa conundrum could add to diplomatic tensions
TURKEY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2017

The Trump administration is yet to make an official pronouncement as to which partner it will choose to liberate ISIS capital Raqqa with. Yet, sullen statements from Turkish authorities and facts on the ground suggest that the decision has been made in favor of YPG, Turkey's Kurdish rival with fi...

GDP Contracts in the Last Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Mar 2017

On a quarter-on-quarter, seasonally adjusted and annualized basis, GDP in the last quarter of 2016 contracted by 0.3% (Graph 1). This was the second time the South African economy contracted on a quarterly basis in 2016 - a year that saw the country’s economy laboring under headwinds emanating fr...

Some bad news on the budget, after a previous series of good news
HUNGARY · In Brief · 07 Mar 2017

The planned Paks-2 nuclear power plant finally passed all licensing hurdles in Brussels the other day. This means that the implementation of the EUR12bn project is going to start already this year. The aim of the project is to build two new 1200MW reactors by 2026, in a great part to replace the ...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

As the contents of the plea bargains reached with Odebrecht executives become public, the political climate will become tenser, with possible reflections on Brazilian asset prices. These prices have behaved favorably so far, based mainly on the hypothesis that Temer will complete his term and tha...

Week of March 6
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

President Michel Temer inaugurates the new Minister of Justice, Osmar Serraglio, and Foreign Relations, Aloysio Nunes Ferreira. The prosecutor general of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, may ask the STF to open a case against politicians. The Senate may vote on the bill on repatriation. The Lower Hou...

Regional Labor Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Mar 2017

The average unemployment rate has been rising, but with important regional differences, which we will discuss in this note. Since the later part of 2016, the growth of the unemployment rate in Brazil has been predominantly explained by the rise of the participation rate (more people looking f...

Political tension escalates on authorities’ attempts to release Chief tax collector
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Mar 2017

The case with Nasirov has all chances to become a trigger for new mass protests. Ukrainians are tired with painful reforms and are extremely irritated with pervasive corruption. Previously, the authorities addressed people to tolerate painful measures for the sake of better future. Demanding peop...

Biding Our Time, But For What?
TURKEY · Report · 05 Mar 2017

The politics author is concerned that Turkey is becoming a dysfunctional party state. A vicious cycle of crackdowns and oppression infuriating the broader segments of the society is inevitable unless President Erdogan faces the bitter reality of long-term stagnation. We still have hope that he mi...

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