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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Sep 16
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Brazil Economics databank Sep 13
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Central America databank Aug 30
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Chile databank Sep 13
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 5
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Dominican Republic databank Sep 13
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Ecuador databank Aug 20
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 13
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Hungary databank Sep 10
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India databank Aug 23
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Mexico databank Sep 11
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Panama databank Sep 11
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Peru databank Aug 22
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Philippines databank Sep 10
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Russia Economics databank Sep 12
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South Africa databank Aug 30
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Turkey databank Sep 18
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Sep 11
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Inflation below expectation in January, depressed by non-core factors
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2016
CPI-inflation came out at -0.1% mom, 0.9% yoy in January. The yoy headline rate is unchanged from December, and is below the 1.1% yoy average expectation in Portfolio.hu's analyst poll. But this forms no basis for a base rate cut by the MNB, as inflation was depressed by two non-core factors. Fir...
The IMF warns on support suspension amid political crisis mess
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Feb 2016
Today Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the IMF, made it clear that Ukraine will not get money without resolving corruption issue. This statement will add fuel to the fire of political crisis which is unfolding at the country. Political elites are disoriented. They have never experienced th...
Will Turkey send her military to Syria?
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2016
I felt the need to revisit the question of a Turkish military intervention in Syria because in the last 24 hours the linked articles in Business Insider, Financial Times and WSJ mentioned the possibility in different contexts. While there are many reasons why Turkish markets were sinking until to...
Lower But Stabilizing Growth
CHINA · Forecast · 09 Feb 2016
Viewed in terms of quarterly data, the weakening growth trend is dissipating. True, real GDP was up just 6.9% in 2015, down 0.5 pps from 2014, and its lowest growth rate for 25 years. But GDP in Q4 was up 6.8% y/y, down only 0.2 pps from Q1, while H2 growth was stable. And the slowdown only began...
Simian Flu
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 08 Feb 2016
The Year of the Monkey finds the world in poor spirits, one eye monitoring the vital signs of its weaker members, the other eye scanning for symptoms of compromised immune systems elsewhere. While the Philippines is not resistant to the malady’s spread, the economy has internal sources of growth ...
FPV desertion ahead of debt restructuring agreement
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016
The recent desertion of 12 congressional representatives from the Kirchnerist party “Frente para la Victoria” (FPV) to form, together with other 3 dissident peronists, a 15 man strong non-K Peronist block (Bloque Justicialista - BJ), might not be very surprising. We anticipated such political shi...
Debt restructuring negotiations
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 07 Feb 2016
Many expectations were set on this government’s debt restructuring proposal for Holdouts. As might have been expected, contrary to the former Kirchnerist proposals, Macri’s team did not refer to the 2005/2010 debt restructuring conditions, nor did it discuss the principal of the debt owed. With a...
Week of February 7
TURKEY · Report · 07 Feb 2016
After the collapse of Geneva peace talks, pro-Assad forces redoubled their efforts to lay siege to Aleppo, pushing 70K refugees towards Turkey. As another great human tragedy unfolds in the neighbor, the fall of Aleppo could trigger a series of events that could spell diplomatic disaster for Turk...
2016 starts with strong inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Feb 2016
On 15 January 2016, BCV published inflation data for the first three quarters of 2015. The Bank reported 108.7 percent in the year to September and 141.5 percent YOY. These results came out below our forecast (157.1 percent for January-September and 197.5 percent YOY.)
Can Nothing Be Done?
MEXICO · Report · 05 Feb 2016
While economic signals were mixed, economic news in January was overshadowed by a further devaluation of the peso. Until oil prices have clearly bottomed out, we expect the currency to keep weakening. Though these two phenomena are clearly beyond Mexican control, this does not imply that the prob...
Abromavichus’ resignation triggers chain reaction
UKRAINE · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016
Resignation of the Minister of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus triggered a real political avalanche. Ambassadors of ten countries (G-7, Switzerland, Sweden and Lithuania) expressed deep disappointment with the resignation. Public opinion leaders stood strongly in support of Abromavichus. Ex-official...
Geneva talks suspended, Ankara worried
TURKEY · In Brief · 04 Feb 2016
After only a few brief indirect meetings with the involved parties, U.N. special envoy Stefan de Mistura threw in the towel, announcing late last night that Syrian peace talks “were temporarily suspended” until 25th of February, which in my view causes great concern to Ankara. While de Mistura wa...
Core Inflation Just Short of Double-Digit
TURKEY · Report · 03 Feb 2016
Consumer prices increased by 1.8% in January, broadly in line with expectations, which raised the 12-month rate further to 9.6%, from 8.8% in December, with the increase mainly stemming from administrative price hikes and food prices . More importantly, the 12-month core inflation (I-index) conti...
Ministry of Economy resigns blaming top officials in corruptions
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Feb 2016
Ministry of Economy Ayvaras Abromavichus publicly informed about his decision to resign. He claimed that he is under extreme pressure and people from ruling group (he named Igor Kononenko, one of the eminence grises, formally Deputy Head of Block of Perto Poroshenko party) are demanding him to ap...
Another Tough Year Ahead
UKRAINE · Report · 02 Feb 2016
January was a relatively silent month, especially after an intense December, with tax changes and the budget 2016 on agenda.The public was primarily preoccupied with resurgent FX volatility, while politicians have been actively discussing the possibility of early parliamentary elections. In Ja...