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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Speed bumps ahead…for a while
PANAMA · Forecast · 24 Jun 2016

Real GDP expanded 4.58% in Q1, down from the 6.2% growth of Q1 2015, and far below the finance minister’s 5.7% growth projection. Electricity, gas and water supply, construction, mining, and social services were the fastest-growing sectors in Q1, according to these official figures, while agricul...

Hungary's football success is to reinforce PM Orbán's position in domestic politics
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Jun 2016

For Hungary, today's Brexit vote is by far not the most important political event of these days. The one on the top of the list is Hungary's national football team's incredible success at the European Football Championship (Euro 2016) in France, namely that they won Group F of the qualifiers last...

Economics: Doing Business Easier
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2016

The World Bank’s annual “Doing Business” report provides us with a means for comparing the ease with which business can be conducted in Mexico relative to other countries in any given year, and for seeing how such conditions have evolved in Mexico over the years. In its latest Ease of Doing Bu...

Playing Political Games, As the Economy Burns
ECUADOR · Report · 23 Jun 2016

With his popularity and credibility falling to 35%, from 60% last year, and government corruption scandals erupting everywhere, President Rafael Correa is reverting to an old political strategy: targeting new enemies, in a strategy to regain lost support. The first target is Catherine Holli...

Politics: A New Day for Fighting Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 23 Jun 2016

Last week’s passage of laws that will effectively create a National Anti-corruption System is a development of enormous importance. For the first time Mexico has legally typified the sorts of activities that constitute acts of corruption, clearly defined those who are bound by the law and its fil...

MPC: Now Comes the Tricky Part
TURKEY · Report · 21 Jun 2016

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the O/N lending rate by another 50 bps to 9% (simple) today, in line with our and the majority of market players’ expectations. The other two rates – O/N borrowing and weekly-repo – were left unchanged. The cumulative cut of the O/N lending rate since March...

Week of June 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Jun 2016 · 1 response

In a new round of negotiations, governors and the Executive will try to come to an agreement on state debt. In the Senate, President Renan Calheiros will decide on the impeachment request against prosecutor Rodrigo Janot. The STF will analyze a new accusation against Eduardo Cunha, removed presid...

Shortages, expectations and Dicom push inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jun 2016

Available information hints at worsening supplies, a trend that may last at least until July assuming inputs for industry start arriving soon. Despite the decline in the price of the dollar in the parallel market and slowing demand because of falling real income and consumer credit slowdown, infl...

June Monetary Policy Meeting
CHILE · In Brief · 20 Jun 2016

As widely expected, in its June Monetary Policy Meeting, the Central Bank of Chile kept the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) unchanged at 3.5%. The communiqué corroborates that the Central Bank is in a wait-and-see stance. Nevertheless, the tone has become more and more dovish. No doubt that the Brexit...

The Fiscal Adjustment Battle: First Moves
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The government took an excellent first step toward the fiscal adjustment by sending to Congress a proposed constitutional amendment (PEC) establishing a cap on growth of the central government’s primary expenditures. But this is just the start of a long and arduous adjustment that will have to ex...

Falling FX Reserves, Stable HUF
HUNGARY · Report · 20 Jun 2016

The surprising weakness of manufacturing in Q1 was due mainly to a setback of output at Audi Hungária, which seems temporary. Already, substantial positive correction of industrial output was seen in April. Nonetheless, earlier stellar growth rates of the car industry are unlikely to return. The ...

Consequences of Raghuram Rajan's departure
INDIA · Report · 19 Jun 2016

Rajan's departure has been the subject of furious attention in the Indian tabloid press and on facebook/twitter. Millions of words will be written about this. The adverse impact of a Brexit upon India will be attributed as the adverse impact of Rajan's departure. We believe his departure does not...

A Political and Econ Update
TURKEY · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Because of pressing business affairs, we will not be able to issue a Weekly Tracker on Sunday. This note updates our readers on a few recent developments, in politics as well as in economics. Needless to say, we shall be back early next week… First, the good news. It now appears that AKP’s pr...

Weakening Foreign Assets
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Public sector foreign assets are falling and becoming less liquid. According to our calculations, these assets (excluding Pdvsa) closed at $19.7 billion on 31 May 2016, $6.0 billion lower than our December 2015 estimate ($25.7 billion).

Machado plea bargain has limited impact on Temer
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Jun 2016

Sérgio Machado’s plea bargain deal citing Michel Temer creates embarrassment for the president, causing wear and discomfort. However, it is important to examine the content and its impact on Temer carefully.

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