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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Apr 30
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Brazil Economics databank Apr 14
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Central America databank May 1
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Chile databank Apr 7
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank May 12
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Dominican Republic databank Apr 28
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Ecuador databank Apr 22
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Gulf Countries databank May 9
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Hungary databank Apr 22
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India databank Apr 28
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank Jan 28
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Peru databank Apr 28
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Philippines databank May 8
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank May 12
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South Africa databank May 6
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank May 5
NEWS FLASH
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COUNTRY INSIGHTS
4Q16 GDP grew 6.6%
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jan 2017
Data released today showed the domestic economy growing 6.6% in 4Q16, sliding from the election-driven 7% growth clip in earlier quarters.Production accounts traced the slower growth to weather-related agricultural losses and moderating industry growth, particularly private construction.These are...
Mislead and Succeed
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Jan 2017
The government has played a masterful hand, using the Odebrecht scandal regarding bribes paid to Ecuadorian government officers to cover up the more costly case of Petroecuador, in which top officials such as Carlos Pareja Yanuselli are involved. Ecuadorians seem to be more preoccupied with...
No change at today's rate-setting meeting, soft policy stance maintained
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Jan 2017
No one on the market expected the MNB to announce any policy change today, and the Monetary Council met that strong consensus expectation. The base rate remains at 0.9% and the O/N interest-rate corridor at -0.05-0.9%. Previously, the MNB said that it is going to offer HUF125bn at tomorrow's 3-mo...
The Reserve Bank Gives Economic Growth a Fighting Chance as it Refrains from Raising Interest rates
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Jan 2017
In a move that did not surprise the markets, the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate at 7% per annum, leaving the prime overdraft rate at 10.50%. The latest inflation data (December 2016) shows an acceleration in the inflation rate ...
MPC Delivers Consensus, Ends Simplification
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jan 2017
The Monetary Policy Committee raised the O/N Lending and Late Liquidity Window (LLW) rates by 75 and 100 bps, to 9.25% and 11%, respectively, while keeping the O/N Borrowing and Weekly Repo rates unchanged at 7.25% and 8%, respectively (see chart). It was hard to speak of a consensus prior to th...
Another Insipid Quarter for the South African Economy
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 24 Jan 2017
• South Africa’s Growth: South African economic growth was erratic during the first three quarters of 2016, with even the relatively high growth recorded during the second quarter proving to be unsustainable as GDP growth rate dipped to only 0.2% in the third quarter. Furthermore, the third quar...
Week of January 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017
The death of Supreme Court Minister Teori Zavascki will continue to have repercussions. President Michel Temer is looking at replacements for the open seat in the STF, while the debate on how the Court will choose the new rapporteur of the Lava Jato cases continues. We discuss this matter in dept...
The budget after demonetization
INDIA · In Brief · 23 Jan 2017
The demonetization exercise, that the government claimed was a bold move against black money, could set the tone for the forthcoming budget on February 1, 2017. It appears to have been successful as a political strategy that persuaded people that the government wishes to punish the rich and corru...
Inflation on a Steep Downward Path
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jan 2017
The most recent results show that, after all, there is nothing wrong with Brazilian inflation. In the second half of 2016, claims were frequently heard that Brazil suffered from a serious pathology – the strong inflation inertia – which kept prices rising steeply even during a long and deep reces...
Ricardo Sanguino, new president of BCV
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response
Ricardo Sanguino is the new president of the BCV, appointed by the President of the Republic for a 7-year term. The National Assembly doesn’t have a say in this matter. Changes to the Board of the BCV may follow. Sanguino has been a member of the National Assembly since 2000 and presided over the...
Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 22 Jan 2017 · 1 response
With the Grand Assembly approving the constitutional reform bill, Turkey will hold a referendum on Executive Presidency during the first week of April. We assign 60% odds to Erdogan winning the ballot. Main downside risks are economic slowdown, terror and MHP supporters turning their back to the ...
Lagarde is positive about next wire for Ukraine
UKRAINE · In Brief · 19 Jan 2017
Today the IMF Managing Director Cristine Lagarde met President Petro Poroshenko in Davos, reported Interfax-Ukraine news agency. Ms. Lagarde said to journalists that Ukraine and the IMF are finalizing the remaining technical details to provide the next tranche. Our sources in the Cabinet and the ...
The Implications of Minister Teori Zavascki’s Replacement
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Jan 2017
The press has confirmed that Minister Teori Zavascki, of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), has died in an airplane crash off the coast of Rio de Janeiro this afternoon. Teori was the rapporteur of the cases in the Lava Jato Operation.The main doubt following his death concerns the rapporteurshi...
Economics: Blowback from Botched Price Hike
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017
During the last days of 2016, the federal government announced it would authorize an increase in gasoline and diesel prices that would take effect during the first days of January. We at GEA believe that while the price hike may have been justified by the rise in oil prices and foreign exchange ...
Politics: Governability in Question
MEXICO · Report · 19 Jan 2017
Following a couple of weeks of unexplained gasoline shortages, the government announced on December 27 that on New Year’s Day gasoline prices would rise by 20% on average, this following years of assurances by President Enrique Peña that the energy reform would do away with such "gasolinazos". Fe...