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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 28 Apr 2016

More people now believe that the presidency is his to lose. Latest polls show the tough-talking mayor from the south pulling further away from the pack, scoring 9 to 12 points ahead of the second-ranked. By itself, the emergence of a frontrunner is a good thing as it removes temptations to cheat ...

Santos’ New Cabinet
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

After a lot of speculation, and a long wait for a cabinet reshuffle, yesterday President Santos announced the new members of what he called the “Cabinet for Peace”. However it has already been dubbed as the cabinet for the plebiscite, as its main purpose will be to gather the votes for approval o...

Economics: The Economic Toll of Budget Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

The reductions in public spending that have been concurrently announced by the Ministry of Finance have always been deepest on the level of investment and only marginal in the case of current spending. Those announced for 2016 were no exception, with much of the cuts taking the form of the postpo...

Politics: President’s Timid Proposal on Cannabis
MEXICO · Report · 27 Apr 2016

Last Wednesday, two days after his speech before the U.N. General Assembly Special Session on Drugs, President Enrique Peña Nieto announced he was sending Congress new legislation based on proposals made during five forums the federal government organized in recent months. There are numerous impl...

El Salvador: Still Awaiting Economic Dynamism
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

El Salvador seems destined to keep living with low economic dynamism. Despite the opportunities generated by a positive international environment, GDP growth is likely to continue running at 2%-2.5% y/y. As anticipated after 10 months in 2015 with negative inflation rates, deflationary risks are ...

The central bank’s gold reserves
VENEZUELA · Report · 27 Apr 2016

A review of the 31 December 2015 balance sheet of the Central Bank of Venezuela (BCV) and the Notes to the Second Semester 2015 Financial Statements leads us to conclude that the central bank’s gross reserves appropriately record the effect of the 2015 gold swaps but net reserves (reserve assets ...

Impeachment Committee: The rapporteur will present his report on May 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 Apr 2016

The president of the Impeachment Committee in the Senate, Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), decided that the report to be written by the rapporteur, Antonio Anastasia (PSDB-MG), will be presented on May 4. The committee will hear the authors of the impeachment request against the president on April 28 (Mi...

A forint-negative Tuesday, due to monetary and fiscal policy announcements
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

The current excessive strength of the currency - the forint trying to break out of the EURHUF 310-315 range in the southbound direction quite often, while growth is spectacularly weakening - was hit by two pieces of official communication today. 1. The central bank reduced the base rate and the O...

Medina Headed for Landslide Win
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 26 Apr 2016

As campaigning for the May 15th general election enters the home stretch, nothing has surfaced to dramatically change the forecasts: President Danilo Medina and his PLD continue to head toward a landslide first-round victory. Two reputable opinion polls found that Medina’s popularity had even inc...

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss
TURKEY · In Brief · 26 Apr 2016

Cetinkaya’s first performance: Hail the new boss, same as the old boss With our economist, Dr Murat abroad with business, the task of evaluating the first public performance of new CBRT chairman Mr. Cetinkaya has fallen upon me, the Political Analyst. The lines below are my personal impressions, ...

Growing Confidence in the Government
INDONESIA · Report · 25 Apr 2016

In his second year in office, President Joko Widodo apparently has succeeded in garnering more confidence in his presidency. This conclusion was derived from the recent survey conducted by SMRC (Syaiful Mujani Research and Consulting), released in mid-April 2016. The path of confidence in Jokowi’...

Week of April 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Analysis of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff will advance in the Senate. This week, the committee to analyze the process will be installed. Given the mostly pro-impeachment composition, the government is admitting defeat. The Supreme Court will analyze the case on state debt with the f...

Election-proof?
PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 25 Apr 2016

The Philippine economy continued to chug along in 1Q16 as internal growth drivers benefited from low oil prices and election spending, with remittance inflows remarkably resilient and further amplified by a weaker peso. Looking at the next 12 to 18 months, the crucial question for the local econ...

Change of Government and Resumption of Investments: What can be Expected?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Apr 2016

The probability is now higher that Brazil will soon have a new government, with sufficient support to make substantial changes in economic policy, enabling the start of a cycle of reforms. The appreciation of Brazilian assets is a first reaction in this direction, but it will take much longer for...

Ecuador Tries to Rise After the Earthquake
ECUADOR · Report · 25 Apr 2016

Nobody was prepared for the catastrophic event of April 16. The aftermath is still being assessed, and even though President Correa’s assessment that the resulting costs will be around $3 billion or 3% of GDP might be premature, it is clear that the reconstruction will take several years. Minis...

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