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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Dilma Rousseff Administration
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Dec 2015

The replacement of Joaquim Levy by Nelson Barbosa in the Ministry of Finance is another negative signal from the government that the fiscal adjustment might not be taken as seriously as before. Concerned with the reaction from the markets, the Chief of Staff, Jaques Wagner, and the Central Bank p...

A free FX market, at last
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Finally the long anticipated day came. Argentina liberalized its FX rate, abandoning irrational and anachronistic capital controls implemented towards the end of 2011. Those controls kept Argentina in a contradictive state regarding its FX-rate-regime. The official FX market was a quasi-fixed reg...

Slower growth amidst regional uncertainties
PANAMA · Forecast · 17 Dec 2015

The Panamanian economy continues on its path towards more moderate growth: real GDP expanded by 5.6% in Q3 and 5.8% until September 2015 y/y. Transportation, storage and communications, realty and services to business, construction, financial intermediation, and electricity, gas and water were th...

Finance Ministry rejects to pay on Russian debt, official statement
UKRAINE · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Yesterday, on December 16 the IMF Executive Board decided that $3 billion of Ukrainian Eurobonds Russia’s National Wealth Fund purchased in 2013 is an official claim for the purposes of the Fund’s policy on arrears to official bilateral creditors. Previously, on December 8 the IMF changed its len...

Impeachment proceedings: main points in the rapporteur’s vote
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Dec 2015

Luiz Edson Fachin, Minister of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), voted on December 16 against the possibility of the Senate’s refusing the installation of the impeachment process approved by the House of Representatives. After Fachin read his vote on the procedure of the impeachment proceedings...

Economics: Pemex’s Ongoing Downward Spiral
MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2015

Executive Summary Pemex’s release of its financial results for the third quarter of 2015 prompted Moody’s to lower its global rating on the company from A3 to Baa1, a level reflecting low-to-moderate risk, which the agency said resulted from expectations that “Pemex’s credit metrics will deterior...

​PKK and ISIS will raise risk premiums in 2016
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

PKK and ISIS will raise risk premiums in 2016 While Turkish markets greeted Fed’s “dovish tightening” move with a moderate rally, I’m writing this post to remind our readers of the daunting challenges that face Turkey in the political arena, on top of a relatively large current account deficit an...

Thinking about fiscal risk
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 17 Dec 2015

Congress has passed a bill granting a P2,000 across-the-board increase in the minimum monthly pension received by members of the Social Security System (SSS). The proposal has been sent to Malacanang and is now reportedly awaiting the President's signature. We gathered from concerned officials th...

South Africa and Three Finance Ministers in Five Days
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 16 Dec 2015

The past week will be remembered in the annals of South Africa's history for the most bizarre, and idiotic, presidential governance decisions in modern times. President Zuma sacked his respected and experienced Finance Minister, Nhlanhla Nene, replaced him with an unknown political entity, David ...

Politics: Uptick, but Approval Numbers Low
MEXICO · Report · 16 Dec 2015

This week we are presenting the results of GEA’s fourth edition in 2015 of its study, Mexico: Politics, Society and Change, Political Scenarios, with a focus on public perceptions of how the current government has performed, and the electoral preferences of voters with an eye toward the 2018 pres...

The third gold swap of 2015 was done in October
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 15 Dec 2015 · 1 response

We infer the third gold swap of this year was done by BCV in October, according to the Bank’s balance sheet published today. Gold holdings fell by $393 million in October. The decline in the 9-month moving average price used by the Bank to value its monetary gold holdings explains $100 million. T...

CNI/Ibope: Rousseff’s government reaches 70% disapproval rate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2015

CNI/Ibope research released today indicates that Dilma Rousseff’s government continues to be deeply unpopular. Although the variation displayed by the poll is within the margin of error (two percentage points), her positive rating has dropped by one point in comparison to September. Her negative ...

MNB took no measure today, softened macro forecast only by little
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Dec 2015

Today's Monetary Council meeting brought about to no measure at all, whether conventional or unconventional. The base rate remains at 1.35%. In its new inflation report, the Bank left its average inflation forecast for this year unchanged at 0% and revised the 2016 forecast moderately down, to 1....

Car Wash Operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2015

The Federal Police (FP) carried out search and seizure warrants at the residences of the President of the House, Eduardo Cunha, the Minister of Science and Technology, Celso Pansera, and the Minister of Tourism, Henrique Eduardo Alves. Senator Edison Lobão (PMDB-MA) and House Member Aníbal Gomes ...

A balance sheet recession?
INDIA · Report · 15 Dec 2015

A remarkable collapse in nominal GDP growth has been taking place. There are concerns about the GDP deflator that has been used, which is possibly overstating real GDP growth. Low nominal GDP growth, coupled with high interest rates, is resulting in difficult conditions for the debt dynamics of t...

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