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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Negative Outlook
COLOMBIA · Report · 18 Feb 2016

As expected, Standard & Poor’s recently revised Colombia’s outlook to negative, while affirming the foreign currency rating at BBB. The Ministry of Finance was quick to celebrate the BBB rating as supportive of this government’s economic policy. However, the risks of a subsequent downgrade should...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 18 Feb 2016

The recession that began in 2012 has not ended. The best measures of business cycle conditions are constructed using data for non-financial non-oil listed firms, and by several measures, these indicate softness in the economy. Furthermore, balance sheet problems are reflected in the mismatch betw...

Politics: A Citizen Initiative as Gov’t Fails to Act
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2016

More than eight months since the constitutional reform that presumes to deal with problems of corruption on the part of public servants and private actors was enacted, not a single secondary law has been passed that would allow for its implementation. Two key pieces of legislation needed to get t...

Academically, Ecuador Is Not In Crisis
ECUADOR · Forecast · 18 Feb 2016

President Rafael Correa, his ministers and the general manager of the Central Bank insist that “times are tough,” and that “the Ecuadorian economy is cooling off,” but also that the country has the means to overcome all problems. Correa even stated in an international TV interview that “academica...

Yet another terror strike clouds economic and political outlook
TURKEY · In Brief · 18 Feb 2016

Terror struck Ankara a second time in less than twelve months, this time right at the very center of the city, very close to the headquarters of the Chiefs of Staff and Grand Assembly. The death toll is currently 28, with 61 injured. No organization claimed responsibility for this shocking incide...

Monetary and fiscal announcement in Mexico puts the economy in the right track
MEXICO · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Banxico announced an unscheduled monetary policy decision of increasing domestic interest rates by 50 basis points and the Exchange Commission (formed by the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank) announced the suspension of the existing FX auctions of up to USD$400m in daily USD and the launc...

Dilma wins with Picciani’s re-election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Feb 2016

Rep. Leonardo Picciani (RJ) was re-elected leader of the PMDB in the House for another year.An ally of the Planalto Palace and a congressman who is close with Dilma, he received 37 votes.He defeated Rep. Hugo Motta (PB), who has the support of the President of the House, Eduardo Cunha, but only o...

A balanced budget in 2017?
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Economy minister Varga said yesterday that 'I hope the Prime Minister's expectation that a zero percent budget is prepared can be met for 2017', adding his colleagues in the ministry are just working on a plan of this sort. From the context it was absolutely clear that by speaking of a zero perce...

Developments in Politics
INDIA · Report · 17 Feb 2016

The BJP's honeymoon period lasted 1.48 years. It ended when the results of the Bihar elections were announced on November 8, 2015. Yet there is little evidence of a change in course in response to these election results. A recent fracas at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, and more broadly, cultur...

Political risks are rising for Turkish assets
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2016

Since the turn of the year, I’ve been very constructive on TL denominated assets, despite the visible tensions with Russia and the massive sell-off in the EM universe. After the developments of yesterday, I’m less so on account of two political risks having changed nature. First the Constitutiona...

Show must go on
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016 · 4 responses

It was a nice show with an attempt to dismiss the Cabinet. Now it would be difficult for western diplomats to blame the President that he did nothing for resolving political crisis. Poroshenko asked both Chief prosecutor and Prime-minister to resign and Chief prosecutor even complied with his req...

Chief prosecutor, Viktor Shokin resigns
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

This nervous day is bringing its fruits. Prior to the Prime-minister report at the parliament President Poroshenko called publicly for resignation of Chief prosecutor Viktor Shokin and for resignation of Prime-minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk. This move was positively perceived by observers since it wa...

Week of February 16
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Feb 2016

This will be a busy week. Members of the PT in the Senate discuss economic policy with Finance Minister Nelson Barbosa. In the House, the PMDB chooses its leader. Former President Lula is deposed at the Public Ministry in São Paulo. The presidency and the Senate have until Friday, February 19, to...

Changing the Cabinet?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 16 Feb 2016

Today will be the moment of truth for the Cabinet of Aresniy Yatsenyuk. Prime-minister will be reporting to MPs for achievements of his Cabinet for the last year and parliament either approves the report or dismisses the Cabinet. The voting will be in the context of severe corruption scandal trig...

Growth Accelerated in Q4 2015
HUNGARY · Report · 15 Feb 2016

GDP growth accelerated sharply in Q4 2015, beating market expectation. The bright star must have been manufacturing, but a major upward revision of previous quarters’ data on sda basis also had a role. The VW scandal is not having a negative impact on Hungary. Indeed, Audi is planning to bring in...

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