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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economy Stabilizes, But Recovery is Far Away
UKRAINE · Forecast · 01 Oct 2015

We continue to observe positive developments in the economy. GDP shrinkage slowed down from -17.2% y/y in Q1 to -14.6% y/y in Q2.Industrial output’s ongoing decline shrank “just” -5.8% y/y in August, from -20.5% y/y in H1. As the hryvnia strengthened, disinflation was also noticeable. The risks t...

A Sobering Forecast
MEXICO · Report · 01 Oct 2015

The economy continues to show signs of weakness. The leading economic indicator slipped 0.09 points from June to July, to 99.6 points (below the threshold of its long-term trend). With this in mind, we believe GDP growth will be 1.8% in Q3, and 2.0% in Q4. Consumer inflation has remained stubb...

Once more on Volkswagen's impact on growth
HUNGARY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2015

A few days ago, we said that based on then available information, the running Volkswagen case was likely to cut Hungary's real GDP growth by up to 0.5% points over the next 12 months. Then a day later economy minister Varga said it was 0.3-0.6%, although he did not clarify if he meant an annual o...

Macro figures of the 2016 budget bill: a carbon copy of 2015; deficit of NFPS set at 2.3% of GDP
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Sep 2015

Yesterday, the government submitted to Congress the budget bill for 2016. The bill set total expenditures and financial applications at DOP 663.6 bn, equivalent to 20.1% of GDP. Primary expenditure is estimated at 17.1% of GDP, 0.4% less than the level set in the 2015 budget Authorities forecast ...

Dilma Rousseff Government
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2015

he CNI/Ibope poll released today, September 30, showed a stable evaluation of Dilma Rousseff’s government. The positive percentage ("excellent/good"), regular, and negative ("bad/terrible") fluctuated within the margin of error, which is two percentage points

South Africa’s Economic Freedom: Government Consumption and Inflation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Sep 2015

In mid-September 2015 the Fraser Institute released its annual report on the Economic Freedom of the World (EFW) for the year 2013, and South Africa’s global ranking had slipped from 93 in 2012 to 96 in 2013. To construct the EFW index, forty-two data points are utilized in measuring the degree o...

Which election outcome will the markets like?
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 Sep 2015 · 1 response

An esteemed reader wrote to us “Crew, What do you think would market responses be, based on your views and the views of your client base into the elections, to the different plausible electoral outcomes, especially: - AKP simple majority - Coalition with CHP - Coalition with MHP What would Cosmo ...

A Balance of Payment Crisis in the Making?
ARGENTINA · Report · 30 Sep 2015

After the primary elections in August and with less than a month to go for the general presidential election on October 25th, political analysis shifted back to polls, in an attempt to anticipate the awaited outcome. Yet, despite the fact that more than a month passed since the primaries and many...

The Political Economy of the SA Steel Industry
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 30 Sep 2015

Schumpeter famously argued that innovation along with the destruction of old technologies are fundamental in the capitalist economy, its growth and technical change over time. Hence in a capitalist economy, profit-seeking firms (and industries) innovate for growth and survival. Globalization, esp...

Exports to Haiti threatened by bans
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 28 Sep 2015

In June and July economic activity accelerated. The Monthly Indicator of Economic Activity (IMAE for its Spanish acronym) estimated the increase in production for June at 6.5%, and for July at a surprising 7.5%. Inflation in August with respect to July, as measured by the percentage change in ...

Week of September 28
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Sep 2015

For President Dilma Rousseff, this will be one of the most important weeks since her reelection. She is betting big on ministerial reform to rekindle dialog with her governing coalition, especially the PMDB. In Congress, she faces a difficult test: voting on the vetoes with a fiscal impact of R$ ...

Business Credit Decelerating Intensely
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Sep 2015

Companies are facing serious difficulties in obtaining financing. New loans to firms have been declining since the first months of 2014, and this trend has been worsening recently. The increasing Brazil risk and loss of investment grade makes access to foreign credit harder. This means the recess...

Reading the Anecdotal Evidence
INDONESIA · Report · 28 Sep 2015

Making a good judgment about the Indonesian economy based only on the official statistics is sometimes inadequate. At the same time, using only anecdotal evidence to measure the direction of the economy can also be misleading. However, using some anecdotal evidence to enrich the official data may...

El Salvador: Slower and Slower
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Sep 2015

Growth in El Salvador continues to be sluggish, though there are also glimmers of recovery. Consumer prices have fallen in annualized terms for the eight months to August, leaving prices down 2%. The fiscal deficit problem persists, and political polarization has only hampered efforts to forge co...

Volkswagen to have an impact on Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 28 Sep 2015

It would be terribly difficult to tell at this point , what exactly the effects of the ongoing Volkswagen case will be. However, it is increasingly for sure that the global impact will be significant and, more importantly for us, Hungary is unlikely to remain unaffected, because of its significan...

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