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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

MNB took no measure today, softened macro forecast only by little
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Dec 2015

Today's Monetary Council meeting brought about to no measure at all, whether conventional or unconventional. The base rate remains at 1.35%. In its new inflation report, the Bank left its average inflation forecast for this year unchanged at 0% and revised the 2016 forecast moderately down, to 1....

Car Wash Operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Dec 2015

The Federal Police (FP) carried out search and seizure warrants at the residences of the President of the House, Eduardo Cunha, the Minister of Science and Technology, Celso Pansera, and the Minister of Tourism, Henrique Eduardo Alves. Senator Edison Lobão (PMDB-MA) and House Member Aníbal Gomes ...

A balance sheet recession?
INDIA · Report · 15 Dec 2015

A remarkable collapse in nominal GDP growth has been taking place. There are concerns about the GDP deflator that has been used, which is possibly overstating real GDP growth. Low nominal GDP growth, coupled with high interest rates, is resulting in difficult conditions for the debt dynamics of t...

Business cycle conditions
INDIA · Report · 14 Dec 2015

Conditions in the economy remain difficult. The net sales growth of firms, expressed in real terms, is quite slow. The credit stress of firms is worsening, as interest payments are growing faster than operating profit. We are increasingly morphing from a conventional recession into a balance shee...

Growing Inflation and Imminent Elevation of the SELIC Rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Dec 2015

Despite the strong contraction of economic activity, inflation shows no signs of waning. The growth of the IPCA for November was higher than all expectations, in particular the acceleration of the core rate and diffusion index. So even in face of a recession that already ranks as one of the longe...

Budget 2016: all about payroll tax
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Dec 2015

On December 11 the Cabinet finally submitted draft budget to the parliament. The spending plan is based on new taxation rules. In particular, payroll tax will be reduced to 20% from near 37%. Simplified tax system will be substantially restricted. Enterprise profit tax rate remains flat at 18% an...

Weekly Tracker: December 13-19
TURKEY · Report · 13 Dec 2015

The government’s 2016 Action Plan promises a lot of pleasant improvements for socio-political arena, but very little concrete steps for structural reforms. Additionally, it is incredibly populist in terms of the envisaged spending measures. Turkey’s troubles with Russia continue and spread to ...

ECUADOR WILL PAY THE 2015
ECUADOR · In Brief · 11 Dec 2015

President Correa announced that the Republic has allocated the money to make payment of the $650 million par value of Global Bonds 2015 by next December the 15th and of the first payment to OXY of a total of $1061.7 million ruled by the World Bank's international settlements court. The total amou...

The opposition’s overwhelming victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 Dec 2015

The electoral system designed to favor the majority worked effectively in favor of the opposition. The opposition coalition (MUD) garnered won 67 percent of the seats (112 deputies) with 57 percent of the vote and the Great Patriotic Pole (GPP) ended up with 33 percent of the seats (55 deputies) ...

Never Tired of Fighting
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 10 Dec 2015

Russia’s involvement in the Syrian conflict increased dramatically following a terrorist attack that killed more than two hundred Russians on an airplane. However, the increased stakes make the Russian government more dependent on the outcome of the conflict rather than increasing the probability...

South Africa has a new Minister of Finance
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 10 Dec 2015

President Zuma stunned the nation yesterday evening by removing Mr N. Nene, his Minister of Finance without any justifications whatsoever. Importantly, this was not part of a cabinet reshuffle; Mr Nene is left in the cold. His choice of the new minister, Mr David van Rooyen, is as astonishing for...

Economics: Mexico’s TPP Challenges
MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2015

The full text of the Trans-Pacific Partnership treaty was made public the second week of November and is now expected to be ratified by each participating country. Our analysis suggests that membership in the TPP will lead to changes, albeit minimal ones, on the level of Mexico’s trade in the ...

Growth Surging, CAD Tanking: So Are We Transformed?
TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2015

Today’s GDP data (Q3) surprised on the upside, coming in at an impressive 4%, y/y, much stronger than the market forecasts of about 2.5%, and our slightly higher forecast. Growth was also strong relative to the previous quarter (seasonally- and working day-adjusted), registering a 1.3% expansion,...

Politics: First Look at the Work of the New Congress
MEXICO · Report · 09 Dec 2015

With the expedited reforms of the Pact for Mexico a fading memory, the 63rd Congress convened for its first session on September 1. In keeping with a custom in place since 1997, whenever the administration in office (whether from the Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) or the National Action (PAN) ...

Alea iacta est
ARGENTINA · Report · 09 Dec 2015

In this report, we are going to revise some of the political and economic challenges that Macri will face, in order to better understand the announcements he is expected to make soon after swearing in. Those challenges include the lax monetary policy fueled not only by the monetization of the ...

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