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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Political and Economic Update
TURKEY · Report · 09 Apr 2017 · 1 response

With only seven days left to the polls, “the expert opinion” heralds YES camp gaining momentum. Our updated poll-of-polls still reveal a very tight race. AKP will probably win because it dominates the electoral system, but readers ought to be ready for Sunday night surprises. We look for clues...

RBI tries to manage surplus liquidity in India's banking system
INDIA · In Brief · 08 Apr 2017

The Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI unanimously voted to leave the policy rate -- the repo rate unchanged. At the same time the Monetary Policy Rate Corridor was narrowed by the RBI management to +/- 25 bps (from +/-50), thereby raising the reverse repo rate. This would allow RBI to suck out...

Social Unrest and Uncertainty Continues
ECUADOR · In Brief · 07 Apr 2017

We are still waiting for official GDP data and economic information for Q4 2016. This information should have been published by March 31st, and was not. Also, the fiscal web page from the Ministry of Finance is not active. Although we have given our estimates in past reports and we do not expect ...

Inflation doesn’t budge despite recession
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

We forecast a stable monthly and annual inflation rate in April at 14.4% month on month (14.6% in March) and 585.3% year on year (585.4% in March).

Peso appreciation is worrying the government but not the Central Bank
ARGENTINA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

Inflation seems stuck at monthly rates slightly above the target set by the Central Bank, and the economic recovery still appears fragile. Kirchnerist opposition to the government has taken advantage of the social discontent to promote riots, strikes and street blockades in Buenos Aires and other...

Costa Rica: Increase in policy rate
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 07 Apr 2017

The Board of the Central Bank increased its monetary policy rate yesterday, from 1.75% to 2.25%. It was the first change since January 2016, when the rate went down from 2.25% to 1.75%. The Board considered the movement as a preventive one, as inflation had increased in recent months (1.36% in th...

Visa-free for Ukraine – big win for President Poroshenko
UKRAINE · In Brief · 06 Apr 2017

European Parliament approved visa-free regime for Ukraine. Ukrainians will be able to travel without visas to all EU countries, except Ireland and the UK, plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. The legislation was approved but still needs to be formally adopted by the Council of Min...

Hints of a Slowdown To Come, While Time Is Not On the Side of Peña’s Legacy
MEXICO · Report · 06 Apr 2017

The economic data released over the course of March provides encouraging signs of continuing growth in certain areas of the economy, but also potential harbingers of a slowdown that might emerge in future months. A case in point is private consumption, which remained the Mexican economy’s main...

Links Cut to Occupied Donbas Likely to Stymie Growth
UKRAINE · Forecast · 05 Apr 2017

GDP expanded 2.3% y/y in 2016, far more than we’d expected. An upsurge in local investment, of 20.1% y/y, and expansion of inventories, were the main drivers. Investment grew, despite scarce FDI, on the back of agro and state investment. An impressive +9.7% y/y grain harvest increased inventorie...

The TSE should resume the trial on the Dilma-Temer ticket in May
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2017

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) accepted a request filed by former President Dilma Rousseff’s defense team, and the trial on the merit of the case was postponed. The Court decided to give the defense an additional five (5) days to present final statements. An additional request for further tes...

The political picture is getting more colorful
HUNGARY · In Brief · 04 Apr 2017

No doubt, the recent picture in domestic politics has been quite boring, as analysts could only report on continued Fidesz dominance in the polls, in addition to a never-ending series of soap-opera-style mini-conflicts among the many small parties of the leftist-liberal opposition, and occasional...

When It Rains, It Pours
PERU · Report · 04 Apr 2017

Natural disasters, in the form of excessive rain and mudslides, have now edged out the corruption scandals involving Brazilian companies, to take center stage in the national psyche. As many as 1 million people may be affected by the El Niño floods, 15% of them severely. The government believes t...

We move on. The IMF approves $1 billion wire. Next stop – agro-land market
UKRAINE · In Brief · 03 Apr 2017 · 1 response

The IMF approved fourth wire ($1 billion) for Ukraine under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program. This decision was long-awaited and was hotly welcomed by Ukrainian authorities especially after the Executive Board canceled its meeting two weeks ago. Luckily it was just a delay and the Fund wa...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Apr 2017

Temer tested the thin ice on which his government rests and nearly provoked a disaster by excluding state and municipal governments from the social security reform proposal. Perhaps to avoid, with the complacency of governors, state civil servants from protesting in the visitors’ galleries of Con...

Week of April 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Apr 2017

A busy week, with the beginning of the trial against the Dilma-Temer ticket in the Superior Electoral Court (TSE) on Tuesday, April 4. In the Lower House, the rapporteur of the pension reform may present his report to the Special Committee. The report on political reform may also be presented. On...

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