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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

More Signs of the Size of the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2015

In announcing last week the spending cuts necessary for the fiscal adjustment, the government revealed that its revenue projections are based on a GDP contraction of 1.2% in 2015. This is the "consensus forecast" of the most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank. But a comparison betw...

Fiscal Adjustment: Another Step, But Still Short of What’s Needed
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2015

In the attempt to meet the fiscal surplus commitment for 2015, the government has recently announced budget contingencies – in reality cuts – adding to R$ 69.9 billion. These will affect all discretionary spending categories, mainly investments, with cuts of R$ 25.7 billion in the Growth Accelera...

Weekly Tracker: May 24-30
TURKEY · Report · 24 May 2015

Executive Summary The recent batch of poll data indicates that the two heroes of the election, namely AKP and HDP are stalling, while the main opposition party CHP has gained momentum. Based on the new data and our momentum analysis, we revised our election estimates and post-election scenarios. ...

Improvement of outlook on Hungary's BB+ by Fitch Ratings puts policy pressure on the government
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 May 2015

There can be few things on the face of the Earth that the Hungarian government want more than getting back their investment grade credit rating. Once again, they did not get it yesterday, as Fitch Ratings issued a press release on Hungary, but they got a big step closer to the goal, as Fitch anno...

Default or not default
UKRAINE · In Brief · 22 May 2015

After parliament approved the law, which allows the Cabinet to impose a moratorium on debt repayment, an active discussion started on potential moves of the Cabinet. In essence, all observers agree that this law was just to add pressure on creditors; however, there is no consensus on what the Cab...

The Benchmark Interest Rate Remains Unchanged
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 May 2015

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted in favour of maintaining the repo rate at the prevailing level of 5.75 per cent a year (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Core, headline inflation and repo rates, South Africa, 2009 Jan – 2015 May* Source: SARB and PAIRSNote: *2009...

Vertigo
VENEZUELA · Report · 22 May 2015

Yesterday, May 21, the price of the dollar in the parallel market broke the barrier of 400 bolivars per dollar in one of the sources we monitor. The average of the five sources we follow jumped 10.7 percent in the day, 25.2 percent in the week, 34.7 percent in the first three weeks of May, 123.1 ...

Openness Driving Reforms
CHINA · Report · 22 May 2015

Executive Summary With an abrupt single day’s notice, the Central Bank on May 11th cut its benchmark interest rates for loans and deposits by 25 bp, and expanded the floating interval from 1.3 times interest rates to 1.5 times. These measures came in response to new weak growth data. We expect mo...

KONDA poll shakes markets
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 May 2015 · 5 responses

For right or wrong, the KONDA polling and market research agency is considered the most accurate among poll watchers. Today’s afternoon sell-off is not related to American first claims data, as widely reported in Turkish financial press or some investment banking commentary but the release (for p...

Too Little, Too Late
ECUADOR · Report · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary It has taken the government more than six months to recognize that the oil price slide is not temporary, and that structural changes in the industry likewise require structural changes in its macroeconomic approach. President Rafael Correa has finally announced that he will purc...

GDP growth for Q1 2015 reported at 6.5%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 May 2015 · 3 responses

The Central Bank reported that the Dominican economy recorded an outstanding 6.5% GDP growth in Q1 2015 compared to the same period in 2014. This is the highest rate of economic growth in the region when compared to forecasts. Panama is the second highest with 5.1% followed by Guatemala (4.4%), H...

Continuity versus Change
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 21 May 2015

Executive Summary Recent opinion polls do not dismiss the possibility that Daniel Scioli could be elected President in the first round of the October election. Mauricio Macri and Sergio Massa, and some other less relevant candidates, are still competing for the non-Kirchnerist vote, which accordi...

Economics: Remittance Recovery Continues
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In 2014 Mexico set a new post 2008-2009 record for the volume of remittances it received. In dollars, such inflows grew by 8% compared to the previous year, to total US$23.65 billion. This growth trend extended through the first quarter of 2015, with remittances rising by anothe...

Politics: How the Race is Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 20 May 2015

Executive Summary In just under three weeks voters in all 31 states and the Federal District will head to the polls to elect their congressional representatives. Simultaneously there will be state legislative and/or municipal contests in roughly half of those states, including nine that will elec...

Lira Is All That Matters, Redux
TURKEY · Report · 20 May 2015

Today, as expected, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept all short term-interest rates unchanged (see graph). The only difference from the previous MPC statement concerns the belated inclusion of a sentence on the adverse impact of lira weakness on core inflation dynamics (“…recently elevated...

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