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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

New PM a Peacemaker So Far
PERU · Forecast · 01 May 2015

Executive Summary GDP growth at 2.4% in 2014 was very disappointing, after the 5.5% average annual growth of the previous five years. While part of the slowdown can be attributed to transitory supply shocks, affecting fisheries and agriculture, investment growth has stagnated, after raising an av...

Important follow-up to yesterday’s report, “Financial Reform Rollbacks”
INDIA · In Brief · 01 May 2015

I would like to rectify some of the analysis presented in yesterday’s report entitled “Financial Reform Rollbacks”. In my report yesterday I said: One key area of failure was tax policy and tax administration. As these reports have emphasized, the budget did not have a plan for how to fix the fai...

Dominican Rep politics: Bill declaring the need to allow re-election introduced in the Senate
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 01 May 2015

In a bold move, yesterday 13 Senators introduced a bill in the Senate declaring the need to amend article 124 of the Constitution and calling for a joint session of the Senate and the House in order to introduce changes. The amendment would allow an incumbent President to run for re-election and ...

Dominican Rep allocates USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 30 Apr 2015

Today, the Government of the Dominican Republic allocated USD 1 bn in Sovereign Bonds in global capital markets. The dual-tranche allocation (reopening of 10 and 30-year bonds) is part of the financing needs set in the budget for 2015. The reop of the 10-year bonds reached 5.125%, with a total am...

Monetary policy confusion
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: There have been a number of announcements by the PBoC and other Beijing officials referring to changes and innovations in the way China will conduct monetary policy. Most of these have to do with improving the transmission of monetary policy and credit a...

Financial Reform Rollbacks
INDIA · Report · 30 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The BJP has rolled back the proposal of applying MAT on foreign investors. Until the fine print is read, we cannot be sure about what the tax authorities have done. And, the increase in the withholding tax from 5% to 18% stands. On financial reform, three issues have held: infla...

Technical Note on Changes in the External Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Apr 2015

The statistics on the balance of payments published by the Central Bank of Brazil are now reported according to the new Balance of Payments Manual of the International Monetary Fund (BPM6, replacing BPM5). The Central Bank’s notes with details of the changes can be found at this link (in Portugue...

All You Need Is Ecuador!
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive SummaryIn a plan to develop tourism as a main public revenue source, the government has launched a massive marketing campaign it calls “All you need is Ecuador” – a slogan meant to evoke the Beatles’ song “All You Need is Love.” President Rafael Correa traveled to the United States to p...

Politics: More Bad News on Security Front
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Insecurity remains a complicated issue for the administration of President Enrique Peña, which has long cited positive trends in crime rates to refute critics, many of whom have warned since the very first days of the Peña administration that it lacks a clear strategy for combat...

Economics: Internal Market Takes Off
MEXICO · Report · 29 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The positive dynamic we observed in private consumption over the course of the second half of 2014 extended through the first quarter of 2015. Diverse variables have contributed to the extension of that positive trend. For starters, the economy’s formal sector wage mass grew by ...

Fiscal grievances and setbacks in Havana
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Private consumption and investment were the key drivers of economic activity in 2014: household consumption was up a faster 5.1% in Q4, despite spending slowdown driven by the deteriorated oil outlook. The consumption of non-durables (33% of total consumption) expanded by 4.5%; ...

Government Under Pressure, but Can Still Win
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With most polls showing the opposition more than 30 percentage points ahead of the PSUV, the official party will be hard pressed to win December’s legislative elections. International pressure to free political prisoners and allow observers to monitor the elections is growing. T...

A Lull in the Barrage of Bad News
UKRAINE · Report · 28 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Domestic tensions eased significantly in March and April. While economic problems and the military threat are still on the agenda, a dearth of breaking news from the Eastern front, and a strengthening of the hryvnia (to 22 per $1, from 30 in February) relieved the generally depr...

Successes and Conflicts in Executing the Adjustment: What’s Next?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Four months have passed since the start of President Rousseff’s second term, and the greatest hope is on Joaquim Levy’s capacity to reverse the unfavorable inherited situation. The fiscal adjustment is under way, and initial hopes were that its execution, along with a weaker ...

A Semblance of Stability
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Apr 2015

Executive Summary A semblance of stability has been felt by the Indonesian business community since the rupiah strengthened a bit against the US dollar, at least narrowing the currency losses seen during the first quarter of the year. However, at the same time, business executives have also fe...

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