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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Opposition still ahead in the polls
VENEZUELA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Parliamentary election campaigns have begun as the economic crisis rages on. Surveys show the opposition solidly ahead among likely voters with 45 percent of the vote, versus 20 percent for the government. However, we cannot yet confidently forecast the composition of the National Assembly. Natio...

Week of August 31
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Aug 2015

The government will send Congress the proposed 2016 Budget. The House may vote on the CSLL increase for banks. In the Senate, the bill on repatriation of resources held by Brazilians abroad may be voted upon. The Central Bank sets the benchmark interest rate. The MDIC releases the trade balance f...

Political Readings
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

The results of last month’s Mandatory, Simultaneous and Open Primaries (PASO in Spanish) largely ratified the previous electoral polls. That is, they suggested the possible victory of the governing party, Frente para la Victoria (FpV), in October’s presidential elections, but not one strong enoug...

Reversing the Trend
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Indonesian authorities have been confronted with two major challenges: the slowdown in the economy and the turmoil in the global financial markets. The turmoil in the global market has put downward pressure both on the currency exchange rate as well as the stock exchange. The slowdown of the e...

GDP in the Second Quarter: A Long and Deep Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 31 Aug 2015

The GDP contraction of 1.9% in the second quarter (Graph 1) confirmed the expectation that the recession would deepen. Because of the negative carry-over to the rest of the year and all the evidence that further contraction will happen in the third quarter, GDP will likely decline by 3% in 2015 a...

Low Levels of Economic Growth Threaten Employment Creation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

During his budget speech at the beginning of the year, the Minister of Finance estimated growth for 2015 at 2%. For the economy to grow at an average rate of 2% in 2015 it would have to grow at relatively high rates in the second half of the year because growth in the first half was disappointing...

Guatemala: Corruption Scandals Dampen Outlook
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 31 Aug 2015

Executive Summary Political developments linked to Guatemala’s corruption scandals have dampened the national economic outlook. But the turmoil has not so far damaged financial stability, which been powerfully resilient.The dollar is stable in the 7.60-7.70 quetzal range; the Bank of Guatemala’s ...

The PBoC is selling US Treasuries!!!
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 28 Aug 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue: The PBoC has been reported to have sold substantial amounts of US government bonds. It will probably continue to sell a lot more.This doesn’t mean, however, that there will be substantial liquidation. The reasons driving PBoC selling also mean that China...

Circling a Deal
COLOMBIA · Report · 28 Aug 2015

A FARC deal may be close, and the focus has turned to intense public discussion over how a deal might be finalized and executed. Yet the difficulties still seem substantial: these basically boil down to political disagreement over whether a special “mini-congress” might be created to ratify any d...

Political Crisis and Loss of Degrees of Freedom in Conducting Economic Policy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Against the backdrop of stagflation and a politically weak government, the Central Bank is facing two challenges. The first is the need to keep interest rates high for longer, even in face of the deepening recession, which raises the political pressures for easing. The second is the task of absor...

South African Economy: The China Effect
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2015

As a member of the “fragile five”, South Africa was hit hard by the global financial vortex that engulfed the markets this week. Its currency was hardest hit, and the Johannesburg stock exchange lost over 7% of its market cap. The global turmoil coincided with a raft of other negative indicators:...

Synthesis of the Brazilian Economy
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Aug 2015

All available indicators show the economy has been decelerating drastically, and the government, politically fragile, has little maneuvering room to try to reverse this trajectory. The economic crisis, political crisis and revelations from the Lava Jato investigation have not yet peaked, meaning ...

Politics: Crime on the Rise in Capital
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

Executive Summary The analyses of public security issues GEA conducts for Weekly Trends: Mexico Politics are generally made of nationwide crime data, but this time we are narrowing our focus to the Federal District because of its economic and political weight, its record in building a successful ...

Lowering growth forecasts
PHILIPPINES · Report · 27 Aug 2015

We are downgrading our GDP forecasts to 5.7% in 2015 and 6.1% in 2016 (from 6.1% and 6.5%, respectively[1]). The revisions reflect both the just released GDP numbers, which show moderate 1H15 growth of 5.3% (see Box), and expected crop losses from a strengthening El Niño. Our revised forecasts im...

Economics: New China Model’s Mexico Effect
MEXICO · Report · 27 Aug 2015

To the already extensive list of negative factors of international origin adversely affecting the Mexican economy over the past ten months (plunging prices for oil and other locally produced commodities, uncertainty regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s long awaited interest rate liftoff,...

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