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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

A Dirty Float
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Jun 2016

In this report we review the trajectory of the peso, given BCRA polices vis-à-vis a floating exchange rate regime with FX interventions (i.e., a dirty float). The Central Bank started to buy currency for its reserves in mid-January, when the peso dropped below 13.5. Yet, it inverted its net buy...

A Sign of Slower Growth?
INDONESIA · Report · 31 May 2016

The Central Board of Statistics recently released the National Account Statistics for the first quarter of 2016, which reported slower-than-expected growth. General expectations were that Indonesian economic growth would be somewhat higher than the previous quarter, but the CBS reported a rate of...

Turkey offers U. S. joint action in Syria
TURKEY · In Brief · 30 May 2016

We had just predicted a very hot summer for Turkey, when a scorching weather front started spreading from Syria. First, Syrian Defense Forces led by PKK-affiliated Kurdish militia called YPG has been advancing towards ISIS’ capital Raqqa with several news items in the Turkish press claiming that ...

Week of May 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 May 2016

The leaked audio recordings of former Transpetro president Sérgio Machado continue to create waves in Brasília. Dilma Rousseff presents her defense to the Impeachment Committee, which will vote on its work schedule this week. The rapporteur of the case against Eduardo Cunha in the Ethics Counci...

The Start of the Temer Government: Where Will Growth Come From?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 May 2016

It’s too early for a more precise assessment, but at first glance the measures announced by the new administration are in the right direction. They start by addressing the origin of the rapid growth of the debt/GDP ratio, which is the increase of expenditures at a pace faster than economic growth...

Operationalizing the interest rate corridor
PHILIPPINES · Report · 30 May 2016

On Friday, the BSP will launch its interest rate corridor (IRC) system . The changes will be operational in nature and will not affect the stance of monetary policy. These changes include: 1. Adjustments to the set of interest rates used for open market operations with the lending and deposit ...

Keiko Leading, PPK Keeps Fighting
PERU · Report · 29 May 2016

Two pro-market presidential candidates are competing in the June 5th runoff, after an April 10th first round that also gave Keiko Fujimori’s party a comfortable congressional majority, of 73 seats out of 130. Her opponent Pedro Pablo Kuczynski drew only 18 congressional seats, but narrowly trounc...

Lights, Tunnels and Trains
TURKEY · Report · 29 May 2016

The Yildirim Cabinet is staffed with capable people, but has a fluffy economic agenda. With Mr. Simsek de facto reduced to the status of a PR person, monetary and fiscal policy will be run from President Erdogan’s Palace. We expect more crackdowns on dissidents and a more hawkish foreign policy. ...

All In With the Recall Referendum
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2016

A united opposition has gone all in to oust Nicolás Maduro through a recall referendum. Massive support for the initial petition to hold a recall vote and recent surveys show that Maduro would lose the referendum badly. The Maduro regime has responded by escalating tensions and granting itself em...

A Bulletproof Deal
COLOMBIA · Report · 27 May 2016

The Colombian economy is undoubtedly slowing. Given current macro imbalances, this is a good thing, and actually what the Central Bank is hoping for, as it continues to hike interest rates. The question is: how much will growth slow? The mining sector continues to disappoint. Coal production f...

Medina’s Victory is Undisputed, But Local Elections Look Crooked
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 27 May 2016

As expected, President Danilo Medina won reelection by a landslide. In 140 of 158 municipalities where vote counting was complete early this week, Medina had won 61.7% of the vote. His challenger, the PRM’s Luis Abinader, won 35%. Medina’s PLD and its allies are also likely to take 28 of 32 Se...

Costa Rica: Hopeful Days
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 26 May 2016

Costa Rican politics have been interesting this month. On May 1st, an alliance of opposition parties retained control in Congress, after an agreement to order a fiscal discussion. New President of Congress Antonio Alvarez Desanti of the PLN (the largest party in Congress) has had a positive expe...

The math of income and GDP targets
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 25 May 2016 · 2 responses

Special points to highlight in this issue: • While paranoia about China keeps Washington focused on predatory Chinese trade, Germany’s current account surplus is almost certainly a far bigger problem and one that may take longer to resolve. China is not the threat that many in Washington think...

Uncertainty Persists
CHINA · Report · 25 May 2016

Fixed asset investment growth slowed significantly in April, rising by 10.1% y/y, down 0.6 pps from Q1. Value added for major industrial firms was likewise weak, at 6% y/y, down 0.6 pps from March -- and a break from the previous recovery. We expect private investment to pick up after industrial ...

An irrefutable victory for the Temer coalition
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 May 2016

The vote on the bill to change the 2016 fiscal target, establishing a R$ 170.5 billion deficit, was symbolic, without the registration of individual votes. However, before that vote, two other votes on the matter took place in the House of Representatives.

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