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Monetary policy – developments on tactics and strategy
INDIA · Report · 21 Aug 2015

Executive Summary A dramatic decline in inflation took place, from late 2013 onwards. Headline inflation is now at the inflation target. From 2013 onwards, monetary policy did not see this coming. This feeds into an interesting current debate about shifting the power to set rates from the Governo...

Lava Jato Operation
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 21 Aug 2015

The Prosecutor General of the Republic, Rodrigo Janot, formally charged the president of the House of Representatives, Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ), for money laundering and passive corruption. Senator and former president of the Republic, Fernando Collor (PTB-AL) and former federal representative and...

A slight problem with the government debt ratio
HUNGARY · In Brief · 20 Aug 2015

Until now, we have been saying that should the cash deficit target of 2.7% of GDP be achieved, the general government debt ratio would most probably fall moderately, to 76.2% of GDP at year end from 76.9% of GDP at end-2014. In July, we also said that budget implementation was running largely on ...

​Del Pino receives Maduro’s backing
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 19 Aug 2015

Eulogio Del Pino, president of PDVSA, was appointed minister of Petroleum and Mining replacing Asdrúbal Chávez who is running for deputy to the National Assembly in Barinas state. The two highest-ranking positions in oil are back on the shoulders of one person. As president of PDVSA, Del Pino gai...

NEW EXPENDITURE CUT
ECUADOR · In Brief · 19 Aug 2015

Minister of Finance, Fausto Herrera announced that the government will cut $800 million from expenditures in addition to the $1.42 billion announced back in January 2015. Public investment will be reduced by $700 million and current expenditures by $100 million. We already expected a new cut anno...

Politics: Citizenry’s Reality Crisis
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2015

The citizenry’s alienation from politics, lack of confidence in parties, and impression that electoral democracy has done little or nothing to improve wellbeing is nothing new or uniquely Mexican, but there has been a special deepening of that crisis of representativeness over the past year. The ...

Economics: FX Conundrum Ahead of Rate Liftoff
MEXICO · Report · 19 Aug 2015

Mexico’s exchange rate has consistently depreciated since the end of the third quarter of 2014, and began to accelerate its climb by last February in a move that took the 48-hour FIX exchange rate from 15.24/USD in March to 15.94 in July and an average of 16.24 pesos per dollar so far in the mont...

Restructuring Frameworks: Economics and Politics
PANAMA · Report · 18 Aug 2015

After covering an updated economic and fiscal outlook from last month, this report assesses the findings of the IMF mission to Panama and the observations and recommendations of its Executive Board. This report will also delve on three relevant issues: the continuity probe on former officials, th...

MPC: Too Little, Too (Still) Convoluted
TURKEY · Report · 18 Aug 2015

The Monetary Policy Committee left all interest rates unchanged today, broadly in line with the consensus. We also thought this course of action was a very high possibility, but, given the ongoing pressures on the lira (that has been inviting the Bank to some sort of action), we had left the door...

​New twists on the way to reelections
TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Aug 2015

As I expected, the 11th hour attempt by PM designate Ahmet Davutoglu to convince MHP leader Bahceli to a coalition failed after a 2.5 hour meeting. Davutoglu indicated he may tender his resignation on Wednesday or Thursday to Erdogan, upon which CHP spokespersons called upon Erdogan to designate ...

Better Performance of the External Accounts
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 17 Aug 2015

The good news about the Brazilian economy in recent months has been the decline in the current account deficit, which in annualized monthly terms is now only half of the US$ 100 billion level observed in 2014 (Graph 1). The improvement is concentrated in three accounts, which we examine in more d...

MPC: What to Expect Tomorrow
TURKEY · Report · 17 Aug 2015

The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet tomorrow. The meeting is an especially interesting one because: 1) it is the first meeting since Governor Basci signaled the Bank’s intention to simplify the monetary policy framework late last month; and 2) it is taking place at a time lira is at an...

COTOPAXI: SERIOUS THREAT OF ERUPTION
ECUADOR · In Brief · 15 Aug 2015

Cotopaxi, the highest active volcano in the world and located close to largely populated areas including Quito, had three important explosions last Friday and the government has raised the alert from yellow to orange. The government has also issued a decree declaring an "state of exception" which...

What happens after new elections?
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Aug 2015

Once again I take the stage to answer questions from a reader, who shall --as has now become custom--remain unanimous. I do love to field questions from you, but urge all of you who have my private e-mail to use this platform which reduces my workload greatly and facilitates information sharing. ...

Reelections loom on the horizon
TURKEY · In Brief · 13 Aug 2015

Today’s summit between AKP leader Davutoglu and CHP’s Kilicdaroglu failed to produce a break-through, with both leaders declaring that Turkey is probably heading for reelections. We now assign 90% probability to a reelection before the turn of the year, possibly on 22th of November. Yet, as Kilic...

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