EL SALVADOR: Politics Hampering Economics
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive SummaryWe expect the next 15 months in El Salvador to be marked by slow growth, low inflation, and a high, if declining, current account deficit. The fiscal deficit will be stable but high, burdened by pension system financing demands. It is basically the same picture we’ve seen for the...

The Growing Current Account Deficit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

The current transactions deficit continues to increase. In September it again exceeded the consensus projections, rising to US$ 83.6 billion over the past 12 months, or 3.7% of GDP. This is the highest 12-month deficit since March 2002. The quality of its financing has also been worsening. Since ...

Dilma Reelected and Second Term Begins with Political Reform
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Oct 2014

16 years in power Dilma Rousseff was reelected to a second term with the support of 54,501,118 voters (51.64% of valid votes), handing Aécio Neves’ (51,041,155, 48.36%) PSDB its fourth consecutive defeat.This is the PT’s slimmest margin of victory over the PSDB. When Dilma leaves office in four y...

Weekly Tracker: October 27-November 2
TURKEY · Report · 27 Oct 2014

Executive Summary The politics section starts with an analysis of Ankara’s grave errors of judgment in the course of the Syrian War. As a result of these, Turkey imported an al-Qaeda problem, it argues. Meanwhile, the Peace Process is most probably put on ice until after the 2015 general election...

Exit-polls: Pro-Reformist Majority Looks Secured
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Oct 2014

The voters, which were indecisive (near 1/3 of voters), indeed delivered surprises. Block of Petro Poroshenko was reported only slightly above "Narodny front" (Arseniy Yatsenyuk). "Sylna Ukraina" of Sergey Tigipko is out. Communist party also did not pass 5% barrier. At the same time "Samopomitch...

Weekly Tracker: Oct 26-Nov 1
TURKEY · Report · 26 Oct 2014

Executive Summary A “yellow substance” mailed to five consulates in Istanbul may turn out to be anthrax bacteria, which could stoke terror anxiety in the markets on Monday. Ankara reluctantly granted access to Iraqi peshmerga to enter Syrian Kurdish town Kobane, which may still fall to ISIS. Turk...

Polling Institutes Disagree; Presidential Race Still Open
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

The second round between Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Aécio Neves (PSDB) is completely open.Today, five polls were released (Ibope, Datafolha, MDA, Sensus and Vox Populi).Dilma is in the lead according to Ibope and Vox Populi.Datafolha presents a technical tie, with a slight lead for Dilma.MDA and Sen...

No Adjustment Till 2014
VENEZUELA · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Executive Summary Our already gloomy outlook on economic policy has darkened over the last month. A relatively pragmatic head of economic policy has been demoted in favor of more traditional chavista policymakers. President Maduro has formally requested special powers to rule by decree. The gover...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

Dilma expands lead over Aécio, according to Datafolha and Ibope but race still open Dilma Rousseff (PT) has expanded her lead over Aécio Neves (PSDB) in the Datafolha and Ibope polls released on Thursday, by six and seven points respectively.The results of the polls were positive for Dilma: 1) Fo...

Aécio Neves wins the TV Globo debate
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

In all the second round debates, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has generally performed better than Dilma Rousseff (PT).This time was no different.Dilma, however, performed much worse than in the other debates.At times confused and stammering, the PT candidate could have done better. If the Globo debate has ...

CNT/MDA: Aécio surpasses Dilma
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Oct 2014

This morning a CNT/MDA presidential poll was released.According to the poll, Aécio Neves (PSDB) has 50.3% of valid votes, while the PT candidate has 49.7% of valid votes.The poll has a 2.2 percentage point margin of error. The poll presents a growth trend for the PSDB candidate and a decline for ...

Dominican Rep: Jan-Sep GDP growth: 7%
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 24 Oct 2014

The Central Bank announced that accumulated GDP growth for the first three quarters of the year reached 7%, almost twice as much as the rate registered for the same period in 2013. Mining was the leading activity with 24.1%, followed by construction (10.7%), tourism (8.2%), health (8.2%) and fina...

SA Medium Term Budget Policy Statement
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 23 Oct 2014

New Minister, Old Promises and Familiar Measures South Africa’s new Minister of Finance tabled his maiden budget policy in the midst of many competing expectations. The Minister faced an unenviable balancing act of reviving a faltering economy with GDP growth down to 1.4%, and ever-rising popular...

MPC: On Hold, Looking…
TURKEY · Report · 23 Oct 2014

In line with the consensus view, the MPC left all interest rates unchanged today, as it had done in the previous meeting (see graph). The statement was also virtually identical to the previous one, except one small change on the inflation outlook in a more dovish direction. The reference to benig...

Updated Survey Results: Poroshenko Leads, Some Changes in Support of Other parties
UKRAINE · In Brief · 23 Oct 2014

Yesterday fresh sociology was released on political parties’ ratings. In general the picture did not change much for Block of Petro Poroshenko as well as for Radical party of Oleg Liashko; however, we see significant changes in support of other parties. In particular, it looks like Arseniy Yatsen...