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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Where is Dicom heading to?
VENEZUELA · Report · 05 Apr 2016

The Dicom rate is rising steadily and quickly. Between March 9 (Exchange Agreement 35) and April 4, the price of the dollar went up by 43 percent. Yesterday, April 4, the rate closed at 295.93 bolivars per dollar (+7.7 percent in the day).

Week of April 4
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Apr 2016

The impeachment enters a new chapter this week. President Dilma Rousseff will present her defense and the rapporteur of the case in the Committee will present his report. The trend is that Jovair Arantes will recommend approval of the impeachment process. The government is articulating changes ...

A hint of a recovery in investment?
INDIA · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Micro data about investment is reliable, and is released immediately after the end of a quarter. Hence, on 4 April we are able to observe the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. This is the first macro data release for the Jan-Feb-Mar 2016 quarter. While this is not a robust recovery, it is possibly the be...

The Fiscal Crisis Gets Worse
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Anybody who has performed an exercise to size up Brazil’s fiscal imbalance will have reached the conclusion that a huge effort will be required, maintained for several years, to stanch the explosive growth of the public debt. In the 12 months through February 2016, the primary deficit reached R$1...

Fujimori vs. a Pro or an Anti Market Rival?
PERU · Report · 04 Apr 2016

The latest polls confirm that Keiko Fujimori will be forced into a runoff after the April 10th general elections. Results show her commanding 30% to 35% of voter intention, and slightly above 40% of the valid votes—but short of the 50% she’d need for a first-round win. Demonstrations against her ...

March Inflation: Saved by the Devil
TURKEY · Report · 04 Apr 2016

Consumer price inflation surprised on the downside in March, staying broadly unchanged over a month ago, versus consensus forecast of around 0.5% increase. This took the 12-month CPI rate sharply lower to 7.5%, from 8.8% in February, while Domestic-PPI inflation also eased further to 3.8% from 4....

Welcome to a Turbulent Spring
TURKEY · Report · 03 Apr 2016

The politics section is dedicated to explaining AKP’s three contradictory policy goals; the building of a patronage society at home, gaining regional influence and fitting in with the Western alliance. The growing threat from PKK and Syrian Kurds, as well as Russia, rendered immediacy to the acco...

Final fiscal data for 2015 and news on fiscal policy offer little clue on rating upgrade outlook
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Apr 2016

Earlier this week, the ESA2010 deficit of the 2015 general government was reported at 1.9% of GDP (against 2.3% in 2014 and a 2.4% target), whereas the consolidated gross debt ratio for end-2015 came out at 75.3% of GDP (down from 76.2% one year before). Both figures were slightly better than pre...

Uncertainties surrounding the impeachment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Apr 2016

The trend is still for the approval of the impeachment process in the House, but the battle has not been won. Below, a list of 12 variables that could decide whether the impeachment is approved or rejected.

Going Independent
INDONESIA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Indonesians politics has entered into a very interesting territory in the form of the Jakarta’s election. Jakarta, as the capital city of Indonesia, has become new bell weather for the Indonesian politics since the ascent of the former Jakarta’s Governor to become the Indonesian President. Theref...

Uncertainty continues to rise
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • There seem to be a lot of rumors swirling around about the leadership, but Beijing is always filled with rumors, and the seeming intensification may just be a consequence of the political calendar. Next year, of course, is the 18th Party Congress, in ...

Impressive Headline, Details Not So...
TURKEY · Report · 31 Mar 2016

Turkish GDP expanded by an impressive – and a higher-than-expected – 5.7%, y/y, in the final quarter of the year, resulting in 4% growth for the year as a whole (2014: 3%; Table 1). In seasonally- and working day-adjusted (WDA) terms, growth was a more modest 0.75%, q/q, or a SAAR of about 3%. T...

South Africa’s Economic Woes Continue into the last quarter of 2015
SOUTH AFRICA · Forecast · 31 Mar 2016

South Africa’s Growth: South Africa’s economic woes continued into the last quarter of 2015, with economic growth slowing down further during this period. What’s more, GDP growth also decelerated for 2015 as whole, placing GDP growth below the 2% growth that had been projected at the beginning of...

CNI/Ibope: Disapproval of the government remains stable
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The CNI/Ibope poll released today shows that the government’s popularity remains stable compared to December 2015. The numbers are still overwhelmingly negative. The elevated rejection of the government (according to CNI/Ibope, the percentage of “bad/very bad” evaluations is the highest since the...

The Economy After the Holdouts Solution
ARGENTINA · Report · 31 Mar 2016

The government delivered quite positively the first phase of its program of “economic normalization”. A key step was the progress in resolving the long-standing litigation with the holdouts. This includes the constructive negotiations and agreements already signed with nearly 90% of the holdouts ...

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