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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Disappointing
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 May 2015

Even though we were poised to cut our 6.7% full-year GDP growth forecast, we were as surprised as anyone by the mediocre 5.2% 1Q15 performance of the economy. The announcement at once sent the main stock index down 1.6% in morning trade. Indeed, one can hardly miss the tone of disappointment in t...

Growth Rebound in the Cards
INDONESIA · Report · 28 May 2015

Executive Summary Growth was even lower than expected in Q1, dropping below 5% for the first time in years -- though, interestingly, business confidence is holding steady. So we may see a bit of recovery in H2. Annualized growth in Q1 was 4.71%, vs. 5.01% in Q4 2014. Low Q1 growth was expec...

Politics: A Tale of Two Key Electoral Contests
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary Of all the states in which local elections will be held June 7, those in Nuevo León and the nation's capital have generated the most interest, and their outcomes are results that could have the greatest ramifications nationally. The contest in the northeastern state is important...

Fernández obstructs reelection; puts him in direct collision course with President Medina
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 27 May 2015

In a televised speech that caused great expectation and got record audience, former President Leonel Fernández objected current attempts to reform the Constitution in order to allow President Danilo Medina to run for reelection based on moral and legal grounds. Fernández recalled that at least in...

Economics: More Jobs but Pay Remains Weak
MEXICO · Report · 27 May 2015

Executive Summary The rate of growth in payroll employment has been twice that of the general economy since the second half of 2012. That outperformance reflected a significant migration of workers in the informal sector into formal sector jobs, but the first quarter of 2015 saw growth in both fo...

When the Going Gets Tough
COLOMBIA · Report · 26 May 2015

Executive SummaryThe Central Bank is facing an unusual dilemma (for Colombia), of having to deal simultaneously with high inflation and economic slowdown. At 4.64% in April, inflation is at its highest since May 2009, mostly due to soaring food prices, and to a weaker currency. Yet the Bank recen...

Battle at the Precipice of Default
UKRAINE · Report · 26 May 2015

Fortunately there was no further military escalation in Ukraine's eastern regions in May; the action was confined mainly to skirmishes and local clashes. Public attention was instead focused on government efforts at debt restructuring, on scandals over the personnel policy of the Cabinet and on r...

Week of May 26
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 26 May 2015

A politically busy week in Brasília: The House tries to vote on political reform, and in the Senate, the fiscal austerity measures are the focus of the agenda. Mayors from across the country will meet in Brasília to discuss the federative pact, healthcare and education. On Friday, May 29, the IBG...

Perspectives for 2015: Recession and Political Costs
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Forecast · 26 May 2015

Executive Summary The political costs of the fiscal adjustment and the measures to control inflation are being carried by a weakened government. The recession in 2015 and the outlook for very modest growth in 2016 have put the administration in the trap of having to undertake a more drastic fi...

Big Facts about the US Macroeconomic Environment and Implications for India
INDIA · Report · 26 May 2015

Using very long time series in the US, three important facts are: (a) an inflation target of 2%, which is successfully delivered by the US Fed; (b) bond returns of 2.7% and (c) equity premium of 3 percentage points.In the US, there is a fair understanding about these three numbers and confidence ...

A Sharp Slowdown in Q1 2015 GDP Growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 May 2015

According to Statistics South Africa's official figures released today, the inflation adjusted (real) gross domestic product (GDP) increased at a muted quarterly, seasonally adjusted and annualized rate of 1.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2015. This follows a notable improvement in the preced...

South Africa's Macroeconomic Challenges Deepen
SOUTH AFRICA · In Brief · 26 May 2015

Today's Real GDP growth of 1.3% together with a material increase in the country's already high unemployment rate have worsened the macroeconomic outlook. The Minister of Finance was hoping for an annual rate of 2% for 2015, at this rate this budgeted figure is fading away fast. The Minister may ...

Still slow
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 May 2015

Government finally released yesterday its expenditure report for 1Q15 validating our suspicion that it failed to spend as much as it had planned. The report showed non-interest expenditures rising 6.3% yoy, slightly faster than the last two quarters but below the double-digit growth rate of 1Q14....

GUATEMALA: Upset Ahead?
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 25 May 2015

Executive SummaryGuatemalan political turmoil is so acute that some local analysts doubt that President Otto Pérez Molina will make it to the end of his term.On the heels of the resignation of Vice President Roxana Baldetti over the corruption scandal in the Tax Administration Office, some civic ...

More Signs of the Size of the Recession
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 May 2015

In announcing last week the spending cuts necessary for the fiscal adjustment, the government revealed that its revenue projections are based on a GDP contraction of 1.2% in 2015. This is the "consensus forecast" of the most recent Focus survey published by the Central Bank. But a comparison betw...

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