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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Jun 13
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Brazil Economics databank Jun 16
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Central America databank Jun 27
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Chile databank May 27
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Jun 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jun 18
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Ecuador databank Jun 20
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Gulf Countries databank Jun 27
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Hungary databank Jun 23
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India databank Jun 26
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Mexico databank May 12
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Panama databank May 13
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Peru databank Jun 27
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Philippines databank Jun 6
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Poland databank Apr 29
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Russia Economics databank Jun 16
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South Africa databank Jun 9
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Turkey databank Apr 24
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Ukraine databank May 12
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Venezuela databank Jun 4
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Week of May 15
TURKEY · Report · 15 May 2016
Starting with this week, we begin to fit together the pieces of Turkey’s multi-dimensional political puzzle. Our top candidate for premiership remains Mr. Binali Yildirim, though Messrs. Bekir Bozdag or Ismet Yilmaz can’t be ruled out. We can’t guarantee that economy czar Mehmet Simsek will retai...
On Guard
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 13 May 2016
President Putin put an end to a long-lasting rivalry between law enforcement agencies by dissolving some and creating a new federal service, the National Guard, which will be in charge of all internal troops. The new agency that will have control over almost all armed units inside the country is ...
Very poor GDP data for Q1
HUNGARY · In Brief · 13 May 2016
The first estimate of Q1 GDP was a very bad surprise this morning, with -0.8% qoq, +0.5% yoy on sda basis. This went against a +2.3-2.4% yoy analyst consensus on Reuters and Bloomberg, and +2% yoy in Portfolio.hu's domestic poll. The Q1 data followed +1% qoq, 3% yoy in Q4 2015. All this seems to ...
Temer in Command
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016
Social Security reform, obligatory federal spending and control of public debt are the three priorities for the interim president.
Parliament gives green way for appointing Yuriy Lutsenko as General Prosecutor
UKRAINE · In Brief · 12 May 2016
Today parliament voted in a law that allows appointing General Prosecutor a person without legal education. This step was presented to the public as an effort to bring on board someone “not from the system”. At the same time critiques blame the authorities that this change in reality was designed...
Elections update
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 12 May 2016
This Sunday May 15 the Dominican Republic will hold national elections. These elections are complex because they are simultaneously at three levels: for President and Vice-President, for Congress (32 senators and 190 representatives), and municipal authorities. 158 Mayors (and deputy mayors) will...
Who is afraid of Rodrigo Duterte? (3)
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 12 May 2016
The business community finally got a preview of what presumptive president Rodrigo Duterte’s economic program would be. In a press conference late today, former agriculture secretary Carlos “Sonny” Dominguez and a member of Mr. Duterte’s transition team, presented a concise 8-point economic agend...
Senate approves impeachment admissibility and Dilma will be removed
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 May 2016
The Senate has approved the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff, with 57 votes in favor, 21 against and one abstention. Four senators did not participate: Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL); Jáder Barbalho (PMDB-PA). Eduardo Braga (PMDB-Amazonas), on medical leave, and Pedro Chave...
Economics: Consumption and Credit Sustain Growth
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016
According to the National Statistics Office’s preliminary estimate of GDP for the first quarter of 2016, the Mexican economy grew 2.7% between January and March compared to the same quarter a year earlier. The report was in line with GEA’s estimate of 2.6%. Preliminary GDP growth was driven prim...
Shortages drive inflation up
VENEZUELA · Report · 11 May 2016
Inflation remains high and rising. In our view, shortages and black market food prices are driving inflation up despite parallel market rate stability and slower money supply growth since mid-April.
Politics: A Year of both Progress and Inaction
MEXICO · Report · 11 May 2016
The first year of the LXIII Congress (2015-2018) concluded with considerably fewer achievements than had initially been hoped for as the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto has apparently lost the ability it demonstrated during its first two years in office to promote its own legislati...
AKP has made its choice
TURKEY · In Brief · 10 May 2016
It is 90% certain that AKP will introduce a mini package of Constitutional amendments to the Grand Assembly by mid-June to allow the president to remain a party member. Called “the semi-presidential system” in the Turkish political lingo would presumably allow Erdogan to retain the party chairman...
Impeachment Reaches the Senate Floor
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 May 2016
As expected, impeachment proceedings will move ahead tomorrow, Wednesday, May 11, after a very confusing Monday, which ended with interim Lower House President, Representative Waldir Maranhão, revoking his own call to annul impeachment sessions in the Lower House. The Senate is expected to appro...
Unemployment Increases in the First Quarter of 2016
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 10 May 2016
Unemployment increased in the first quarter of 2016 according to the latest labor force survey results released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA). Recording 26.7% for the period from January-March 2016, unemployment rose by 2.2 percentage points quarter on quarter (q/q) after it registered 24...
Impeachment proceedings likely to carry on
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 May 2016
Below we summarize the current political climate after interim House President Waldir Maranhão (PP-MA) annulled the House vote on the impeachment: