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Politics: Last poll data before the election
MEXICO · Report · 05 Jun 2015

Executive Summary The last GEA-ISA poll, released on June 2, shows the electoral preferences with the PRI on top (35%), followed by the PAN (28%), the PRD (12%), the Green Party (7%) and Morena (6%). Of the smaller parties, the PT, PANAL, and Movimiento Ciudadano might keep their registration as ...

National Assembly convened on Saturday to amend the Constitution to allow re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 04 Jun 2015

Last Tuesday, the House approved by a significant majority the bill that calls for a meeting of the National Assembly to discuss the proposal to amend the article of the Constitution which impedes a sitting President to run for re-election. The amendment proposed would allow a President to run fo...

The MNB are making another effort to chase money out of their balance sheet
HUNGARY · In Brief · 03 Jun 2015

No doubt, policy-makers at the central bank have been pushing the pedal hard in recent days. Just a few days following our previous post, which reacted to their base rate cut last week, they announced a reform of the MNB's monetary tools and mechanism yesterday, to take effect in three months fro...

May Inflation: Food Down, Core Up...
TURKEY · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Consumer price inflation came in at 0.56% in May, broadly in line with expectations, which meant an increase in the 12-month rate to 8.1% from 7.9% a month earlier. Domestic-PPI also rose to 6.5%, from 4.8%, largely reflecting a reversal of favorable cost-push factors (Table 1; Graphs 1-2). Food ...

Economic Climb, Interrupted
MEXICO · Report · 03 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryWith international oil prices on the upswing, and the possibility of a U.S. slowdown looking more remote, some early-year economic risks have evaporated. Yet other risks are emerging – the biggest of them employers' deteriorating economic expectations.Two other factors we will so...

No Clear Way Out
VENEZUELA · Report · 02 Jun 2015

Executive SummaryNicolás Maduro faces a severe political crisis that, if unaddressed, could further destabilize the country and drag down the economy. Pressures on his government include a wave of organized criminal violence, proliferating black markets for basic goods, terrible poll numbers, U.S...

Week of June 1
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 01 Jun 2015

Thursday's holiday will reduce activity in Congress. Expectations are rising regarding the report on the payroll tax exemption bill. In the economy, we highlight the Central Bank's decision on interest rates and the announcement of the 2015-2016 Harvest Plan.House debates payroll tax exemptionsRe...

GDP in the First Quarter: the Recession is Deepening
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Jun 2015

GDP in the first quarter of 2015 contracted by 0.2%, which was less than the consensus projections. Still, there are no reasons for optimism. On the demand side, after many years of steady growth, there was a sharp drop in household consumption, and on the supply side, besides the fall in GDP in ...

A Pre-Election Recap
TURKEY · Report · 31 May 2015

Executive SummaryOn the eve of general elections, there is fear in AKP ranks, loathing for the party among the opposition parties and an expectation of great surprises among so-called experts like us. While final polls indicate a razor-thin victory for AKP in terms of the seats, the trepidation i...

Post-rate-cut EURHUF and declining fixed investment in Q1 point to further monetary easing
HUNGARY · In Brief · 29 May 2015

1. The MNB's third cut in a row of its base rate on May 26, by another 15 bps this time and by a total 45 bps in total over the last three months, to 1.65%, has not affected the EURHUF immediately, which is no big surprise, as the move was fully in line with the broad market consensus. 2. However...

Uprisings Damning Growth
PERU · Report · 29 May 2015

Executive SummaryThe anti-mining political movement has taken maximum advantage of President Ollanta Humala's mounting unpopularity, and staging a massive protest against the construction of the Tia Maria mining project. Though the government imposed a state of emergency, and has brought relative...

Monitoring Inflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 29 May 2015

Inflation reaches new highs. We forecast the June 2015 CPI MOM inflation at 10.3 percent in June 2015, close to May (10.0 percent). The YOY rate rises to 136.3 percent from 123.7 percent in May. We have adjusted upwards our May MOM inflation rate to 10.0 percent reflecting the impact of the May m...

Consistent with the Distribution of Political Power
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 29 May 2015

Special points to highlight in this issue:Just as the development of China's banking system after the reforms of the 1980s was necessarily consistent with the institutions that governed its distribution of political power, expected changes in the institutions that will govern the distribution of ...

Medina beats Fernández: reelection bid at full speed
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 28 May 2015

Today an agreement reached between former President Leonel Fernández and President Danilo Medina put a dramatic end to the severe crisis of the Partido de la Liberación Dominicana (PLD) which was in the verge of a division. The agreement paved the way to get approved a Constitutional amendment wh...

Russia to the rescue?
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 28 May 2015

The news that Russia plans to invest $14 billion in the Venezuelan oil industry comes in the wake of several visits to Russia by Venezuelan government officials trying to prop up relations with Russia. We have no indications of specific advances in this field. In our view, it’s a generic announce...

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