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Week of April 20
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Apr 2015

Despite the holiday (April 21), this will be an intense week: Dilma sanctions the 2015 Budget; the House continues the vote on outsourcing; the Senate debates the state debt index; and the Petrobras financial balance will finally be released. Light at the end of the tunnel There are details that ...

Growth Outlook Wan, as Government Hunts for Finance
ECUADOR · Forecast · 20 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The dramatic fall in oil prices has forced the government to cut $1.4 billion from its 2015 budget – so we expect growth to plunge year, though it should recover somewhat if certain hydroelectric projects begin operating by mid-2016.We project 2015 growth at less than 1%, if oil...

Weekly Tracker: April 19-25
TURKEY · Report · 19 Apr 2015

Executive Summary The centennial of the so-called Armenian genocide is causing major headaches to Turkish diplomacy, which AKP is overcoming with healthy doses of paranoia and xenophobia. We don’t expect President Obama to join the chorus of genocide-accepters. At home, AKP’s election manifesto i...

Heads Up: Eulogio del Pino, Pdvsa
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 17 Apr 2015

Rumors point to the imminent dismissal of Eulogio del Pino, President of Pdvsa, owing to disagreements with Asdrúbal Chavez, Minister of Petroleum, and/or Carlos Malpica Flores, Finance Director. The news has not been confirmed. Del Pino’s departure from Pdvsa would be bad news. He has managed to...

Economics: Local Ripples from US Slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Since the last quarter of 2014 and through the first of 2015, the US economy has shown lower levels of growth in its industrial sector. In contrast to the slowdown observed in early 2014, which was largely provoked by climatic circumstances (polar vortex), the latest stalling of...

Politics: Midterm Race Tightens
MEXICO · Report · 16 Apr 2015

Executive Summary With the general election campaign underway, the Institutional Revolutionary Party may feel more wrath from voters this year than incumbent parties are accustomed to in midterm elections. But due to a relative dearth of good polling data there is a considerable lack of visibilit...

London trip notes: A calm bearishness
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Apr 2015

Since my return from the Great Conquest of London, 4 international investment banks and three local institutions published research on Turkish elections and the aftermath. The conclusions were eerily similar: Political noise will not taper off after the elections. Since my mission in London was p...

AKP’s candidate roster
TURKEY · In Brief · 15 Apr 2015

After an 8 day London trip, during which I and my side-kick Cosmic Strategist visited up to 40 members of the investment banking community, I’m back in Turkey, having missed a Weekly and the most important event of the recent past, namely the submission of candidate rosters to the High Election B...

Week of April 14
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 14 Apr 2015

The fiscal austerity measures enter a new phase. The rapporteurs of the provisional measures are expected to present their reports this week. Voting in the Joint Committee should take place in the next two weeks. The House continues the vote on outsourcing, and the Senate examines two appointment...

More controls, distortions and corruption
VENEZUELA · Report · 13 Apr 2015

The government again chose the most inefficient, cumbersome, and corruption-prone path to adjustment ahead of the December elections. Cencoex Regulation No 11 (Official Gazette No 40636 dated 04/09/2015) reinforces forex controls and rationing for travel abroad and online purchases using credit c...

Unsustainable Forint Strength
HUNGARY · Forecast · 13 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Analysts have been essentially right in their recent assessments that the Hungarian economy is likely to experience a pretty good year in 2015, with reasonably high growth, very low inflation, combined with limited fiscal deficit, a slightly decreasing government debt ratio and ...

The Recent Exchange Rate Trend
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Apr 2015

During March the real reached R$ 3.30/US$, since when it has been appreciating, with a slight reduction in volatility. This movement is not unique to Brazil’s currency, indicating that part of the reason for the recent strengthening is external factors. But these elements have been accompanied by...

Weekly Tracker: April 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Apr 2015

Executive Summary Our political analyst-cum-Cosmic strategist has been touring around the world on a business-cum-leisure trip, so you are stuck with me again this week. We begin by taking note of a recent election simulation that confirms what has sort of become the consensus view by now: if the...

New output, trade and inflation data mark moderate slowdown, predict further MNB rate cut
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Apr 2015

Industrial output (gross output in real terms) rose 5.8% yoy in February, implying 5.6% yoy growth in Jan-Feb 2015. This looks like continued decent growth. But the right comparison to see how the economy's overall growth dynamics is moving from last year is the one against 7.1% yoy expansion rec...

Mobilizing Management Efficiency
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 08 Apr 2015

Regional elites are under increased pressure from the Kremlin to comply with anti-corruption regulation as the country approaches a new wave of governors’ elections in September 2015, and with 18 months until the national parliamentary elections. The Presidential Administration now needs to final...

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