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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

How will a Chinese adjustment affect the world?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Special points to highlight in this issue: • Recent debt and economy-related data released by the PBoC and the National Bureau of Statistics suggest that economic activity is stabilizing, but for the wrong reasons. Debt continues to rise faster than ever. • I continue to expect that China is mo...

Weekly Tracker: April 17-23
TURKEY · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Turkey’s smaller opposition parties, HDP and MHP, are in disarray. The pro-Kurdish rights HDP is facing the threat of several of its members being excommunicated from the Grand Assembly, if a controversial amendment to the Constitution restricting parliamentary immunities passes. The leader of th...

Government should be defeated on Sunday
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 17 Apr 2016

Unless an extraordinary event happens, the floor of the House of Representatives will approve the admissibility of the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff on Sunday. The chances are of 90%. Sources heard by Arko Advice, both from government and opposition, indicate that the pro-impeachment v...

Impeachment chances increase with defeat in the Supreme Court
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Apr 2016

As expected, late on Thursday, April 14, the government suffered two major defeats in the Supreme Court (STF). Government allies had filed an injunction challenging the voting order of impeachment by the House.

New Cabinet appointed. We are skeptical about reforms.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016

Today Parliament approved Volodymyr Groysman for the Prime-minister post. The new Cabinet will have six (!) vice-prime ministers. The economic block of the Cabinet was totally refreshed. Former Finance Minister Natalie Jaresko was replaced with Oleksandr Danylyuk, who was Deputy Head of the Presi...

​The parliament is getting ready to lift its own immunities
TURKEY · In Brief · 14 Apr 2016

It fills my heart with joy to receive questions from you, because it means Turkey is still being covered. Here is the latest query: “Hello, I have a question on the talks about removing the HDP immunity. We read that now CHP would not be against it. What exactly does it mean in terms of repercuss...

Economics: Lower Outlook, Deeper Cuts
MEXICO · Report · 14 Apr 2016

The Ministry of Finance sent the Chamber of Deputies its “Preliminary Economic Policy Criteria for 2017” on April 1. The preliminary criteria text depicts a relatively conservative macroeconomic scenario for 2017: GDP growth between 2.6% and 3.6% (as opposed to GEA’s 2.1% estimate); 3% inflation...

Politics: Panama, Bloomberg and Anti-Corruption
MEXICO · Report · 13 Apr 2016

No Mexican government officials have been mentioned so far in the Panama Papers, although the names of a number of prominent businessmen have turned up. But one whose financial activities may prove to be especially politically significant is Juan Armando Hinojosa, who has emerged as a major gover...

​Court of appeal gave green light for debt placement and holdouts payment
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 13 Apr 2016

Today the United Stated Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit confirmed Griesa´s ruling, by which it allows again Argentina to honor its debt commitments in the US market, and effectively worldwide. For a starters, Argentina will be able to pay its 2005/2010 restructured debt (Discounts and Par...

Risk of impeachment increases to 65%
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2016

The approval of the pro-impeachment report written by rapporteur Jovair Arantes increases the difficulties of the government. Although not a surprise, it is one more defeat for President Dilma Rousseff.

Committee approves impeachment by a margin of 38 X 27
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 12 Apr 2016

The Impeachment Committee approved the report by Rep. Jovair Arantes (PTB-GO) in favor of opening the impeachment proceedings against President Dilma Rousseff. The report received 38 votes in favor, while 27 voted against it.

New CBRT chairman: The proof of the pudding is in the eating
TURKEY · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016

Dr Murat Ucer covered the basics of the appointment of Mr. Cetinkaya as the new CBRT head yesterday, where he also voiced my disappointments that Turkey is unlikely to witness prudent and independent monetary policy in the near future. In this brief, I want to add more political analysis and comm...

Kuczinski now sure in the runoff. Peruvian assets surge
PERU · In Brief · 11 Apr 2016 · 2 responses

With 82.55% of the votes already tallied, Keiko Fujimori, Pedro Pablo Kuczynski and Veronica Mendoza have gathered 39.55%, 22.11% and 18.27% respectively. Markets reacted very positive to the electoral results. The sol appreciate by 2% against the dollar in early trading, sovereign bonds yields t...

Week of April 11
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

A very busy week given the vote on the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. The matter is expected to be concluded in committee this Monday. The discussion on the House floor could begin on Friday, with deliberation on Sunday, April 17. There will be several demonstrations, both in favor and...

Two Crises: Political and Fiscal
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Apr 2016

In the midst of the worst recession in the past 35 years, caused by the current government’s mistakes, Brazil is facing two crises: a fiscal crisis, leading to explosive growth of the gross public sector debt in relation to GDP; and a political crisis that threatens the administration’s survival....

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