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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

GDP in 2014
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 30 Mar 2015

GDP grew by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2014, or an annualized rate of 1.3% (Graph 1). For the year as a whole, growth was only 0.1%, far short of the 2.7% figure in 2013. All sectors of the Brazilian economy performed worse in 2014 than in 2013, clearly showing the economy’s loss of dynamism. ...

GUATEMALA: LIDER’S Baldizon Favored in September Race
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We expect economic calm in Guatemala this year, with a growth forecast of about 4%, and inflation low, at about 3.5%. External accounts will benefit from oil price decline and the increase in rates of private remittances, and the current account deficit will decline.Public finan...

Tug of War Over Jakarta’s Budget
INDONESIA · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Jakarta, as the capital of the country, carries significant weight in the economic and political development of the country. At a time when the provincial governments are contributing a substantial amount of the country’s economic growth, developments in Jakarta are a crucial...

Week of March 30
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Mar 2015

Despite the holiday on Friday, April 3, this will be a busy week. Finance Minister Joaquim Levy goes to the Senate to defend the fiscal austerity measures. The same day, the Senate will vote on a bill on the renegotiation of state debt. The House could vote urgency for the bill that revokes the s...

Weekly Tracker: Mar 29-Apr 4
TURKEY · Report · 29 Mar 2015

Executive Summary We combine this week’s politics and markets sections, to present three election scenarios and their market implications. We think these scenarios are fairly robust to the passage of time, even though there is still 9 weeks to go before the poll date of June 7th. With the excepti...

Fiscal Adjustment
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 27 Mar 2015

Commissions define public hearingsThe Joint Commissions to discuss the provisional measures for the fiscal adjustment established a work chronology.The commission analyzing Provisional Measure (MP 665/14), which hinders access to unemployment insurance, among other changes in labor rights, will h...

The Inflation Outlook Glass is Indeed Half Empty
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Mar 2015

Today, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.75% per annum, citing deteriorated inflationary prospects. Granted, the headline inflation rate has moderated significantly over the past months, from 5.9% year-on-year (y/y...

A strange MNB base rate cut: monetary conditions have tightened substantially
HUNGARY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2015

As reported on the screens, the MNB reduced its base rate by 15 bps to 1.95% yesterday, against the average market expectation of a 20bps rate cut (which we shared). In addition, they presented a new inflation report, which is markedly more optimistic than the previous one.The MNB now expects 0% ...

Government Aims for 7% Growth
CHINA · Report · 25 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Prime Minister Keqiang Li announced in an address to Congress on March 4th that China was aiming for growth of about 7% for 2015. And he stated that more structural reform would be needed going forward. The economy continued to slow in January and February. Industrial outp...

Hold, hike or cut?
PHILIPPINES · Report · 25 Mar 2015

It is a foregone conclusion that Thursday’s meeting of the Monetary Board of the BSP will see policy rates on hold.What divides market players is whether policy rates will remain steady for the rest of the year, or whether hikes or cuts are in store. The April issue of Focus Economics shows that ...

Answers to Reader Questions
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Mar 2015 · 1 response

Dear Readers, I’m still convalescing, which regrettably meant that some of your questions went unanswered for more than 24 hours. I thought it would be a neat idea to answer them together so all our readers can benefit. Since I didn’t ask for permission, the names of the submitters shall remain a...

Post-Bonanza Living
COLOMBIA · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The economy slowed in Q4, with GDP at 3.5% falling short of the government’s 3.8% projection. That took 2014 growth down to 4.6%, from 4.9% in 2013. The main activity drivers continued to be construction (up 5.9%) and commerce (4.5%), followed by government expenditure (social s...

Political Scenarios
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 24 Mar 2015

CNT/MDA poll confirms President Dilma´s loss of popularity The CNT/MDA poll released yesterday, March 23, has confirmed the negative popularity scenario currently being experienced by President Dilma Rousseff. Her governance is perceived as “excellent” by only 11% of those interviewed, while 65% ...

Capacity To Pay Debt Tightening While Willingness To Pay Goes Up
ECUADOR · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Around 100,000 people from all sectors of the economy marched last Thursday to protest against the draconian import taxes recently imposed by the government to control the balance of trade deficit.However, this was not the only claim.The arrogance of the regime, the attacks to f...

Politics: Shift in Polls Suggest Tightening Race
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The latest GEA-ISA polling results point to a scenario quite different from that observed in September of last year, when the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) enjoyed an edge of three to one over its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN), and what ...

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