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Budget Speech Analysis
INDIA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2015

The BJP, armed with a clear majority in the Lok Sabha, with the desire to break with Indian socialism, was expected to unveil a game plan for structural change from here till 2019. In large part, Budget 2015 does not rise to the challenge. It has some good elements, and with good execution, they ...

Honeymoon Cut Short
TURKEY · Report · 01 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Hours before our editing deadline, incarcerated PKK leader Mr. Abdullah Ocalan issued a call to separatist terror organization PKK to convene its Grand Convention to consider a “reinforced ceasefire”. Can it work? We only assign 30% odds to success. What does President Erdogan w...

Government Crackdown
VENEZUELA · Report · 28 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Although the launch of the new Marginal Currency System (Simadi) dominated economic headlines in February, it proved to be much ado about nothing. Despite the economic crisis and approval ratings at a paltry 20 percent, Maduro and his allies have consolidated themselves as chavi...

South African Budget 2015: Two Cheers for the Minister’s Maiden Speech
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 26 Feb 2015

Minister Nhlahla Nene presented his maiden Budget Speech yesterday in the midst of much “expected surprise”. His government faced a complex blend of domestic and international challenges. Personally, also, he had to take a stand, come out of the shadows of the previous two Finance Ministers under...

Steady Policy
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Feb 2015

As the US Fed struggles with the language of its forward guidance, keeping markets on their toes, the BSP Governor has stated that any interest rate hike on its part need not be "in sync with the Fed" on both timing and size of adjustment. This jibes with our baseline read that local policy rates...

Heads up: Rumors of Babacan’s resignation
TURKEY · In Brief · 25 Feb 2015

CBRT’s 50 basis point cut of the O/N lending rate didn’t please the AKP government. The chorus of objecting voices which began with Premier Davutoglu was soon joined by President Erdogan who accused CBRT to be in collusion with “foreign powers” to hold Turkey back. Afterwards Economy czar Babacan...

Off the Cliff
UKRAINE · Report · 25 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Ukraine’s situation has deteriorated. Despite widely expected budget cuts, which should have secured a stable hryvnia, the authorities have envisaged an overoptimistic spending plan for 2015, which presumes heavy hryvnia printing. To make matters worse, it sounds as though the I...

It's all politics, at this stage...
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2015

Since my name was mentioned in Cosmic's latest post, I might as well do a follow up, though I have little to add to his succinct analysis, especially the two main observations He makes -- that: 1) rate cuts should not have much effect on domestic demand against a backdrop of heightened policy vol...

Medina Winning Wide Support
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Some 70% of adults surveyed support the idea of a constitutional amendment to allow President Danilo Medina to run for re-election, the country’s most respected polling organization reports. The pollster, Gallup-Hoy, also said that 64% of those surveyed believed that Medina shou...

Politics: Crime Data Look Good but Don’t Add Up
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary The trend of recent years toward a reduction in the rate of intentional homicide in Mexico extended through 2014, according to the report the National Public Security System (SNSP) released last week. However, the information should be regarded as preliminary because Mexico’s Na...

Economics: GDP: 2014 and Beyond
MEXICO · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s National Statistics Office (Inegi) reported that Gross Domestic Product increased 2.6% in the last quarter of 2014 compared to the same quarter a year earlier and 0.7% compared to the third quarter of 2014. For full-year 2014 GDP grew 2.1%; these are the same results th...

GDP’s Q4 2014 Outcome Fails to Lift Annual Growth
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Statistics South Africa today reported that the inflation adjusted (real) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased notably at a quarterly, seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.1% in the last quarter of 2014. The outcome added two percentage points to the preceding quarter’s rate (see Graph 1). ...

Costa Rica: More Robust, Yet More Vulnerable
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Feb 2015

Executive Summary Economic performance is expected to improve slightly in 2015, compared to previous expectations, and, in some respects, compared to 2014. Despite mixed fiscal signals from the government, we don’t expect turbulent storms this year. External conditions are the main reason: strong...

Cosmic Strategist reviews CBRT decision
TURKEY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2015 · 1 response

CBRT fooled the markets once again by cutting the O/N lending by 50 basis point and the weekly repo and the O/N borrowing rates by 25 basis points each. The market had anticipated a minor or no cut in the O/N lending rate and 25-50 basis point cuts in the other two. In the accompanying statement ...

The Moment of Truth
COLOMBIA · Forecast · 23 Feb 2015

Executive Summary This is likely to be a transition year for Colombia: the economy’s vulnerabilities will become apparent toward yearend, as reduced oil income subtracts from government revenues. Four crucial elements will determine the country’s path to recovery: first, oil and commodity price t...

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