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Moderate Central Bank President Resigns
ARGENTINA · Report · 01 Oct 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on October 1, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. Today Juan Carlos Fábrega presented his resignation as President of Argentina's Central Bank (...

Don’t Expect The Reform Process To Be Linear
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 01 Oct 2014

• Recent rumors that Zhou Xiaochuan will retire as governor of the PBoC should not be interpreted as an indication that Beijing has changed its mind about the urgency of reform. Given Zhou’s age, it was unlikely that he would remain in his seat for very long, and in fact if these rumors are true,...

SA Water Crisis: Self-made or Natural?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 01 Oct 2014

Over the past few weeks, Gauteng Province has experienced a new crisis, this time related to another key socio-economic infrastructure category, namely water availability. Hot on the heels of continued disruptions to power supply and rising costs of electricity over the past five years, the persi...

Turkey’s “no guts, no glory” Dilemma
TURKEY · In Brief · 01 Oct 2014

The Cabinet submitted a war powers bill to the parliament which seeks to receive broad authority to combat ISIS, PKK and “other terror organizations in our region” at home and abroad. The bill is worded intentionally vague, leaving much of the discretion in terms of specifics to the Cabinet. For ...

Reform Package: Neutral for Politics, Neutral for Markets
TURKEY · Report · 01 Oct 2014

The Reform Package (RP), announced by Prime Minister Erdogan on Monday failed short of the media campaign that led to it, as well as the aspirations of the intended recipients except one clientele: the devout Moslem females. Mr. Erdogan demonstrated once again that substantial human rights reform...

Dilma leads; Marina and Aécio Fighting for a Spot in the 2nd Round
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 30 Sep 2014

The CNT/MDA and Vox Populi polls (9/29/2014) give Dilma Rousseff (PT) a 15-point lead over Marina Silva (PSB) in the 1st round. This is a considerable advantage given that there is less than a week left before the election. The question is – whom will she face in the 2nd round?It is likely to be ...

Weak Links in 2015 Budget
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Since the Ministry of Finance handed Congress the administration’s 2015 budget proposals, a number of officials have come forward to argue that if approved, this budget would prove to be both responsible and one that would push public investment to new record highs, even going so far as to argue ...

Harbingers of More Good Things to Come
MEXICO · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Executive Summary Signs of recovery are growing broader, and more pronounced, suggesting brighter prospects for H2.Industrial production in July was growing 2.1% faster than a year earlier. This was the sixth increase in 2014, and the second biggest, after the 3.6% increase in March. The Mexican ...

Back to Basics
VENEZUELA · Report · 30 Sep 2014

Executive Summary With $6.4 billion in Venezuelan public debt service payments coming due in the fourth quarter of 2014, $10.0 billion coming due annually between 2015 and 2017, and liquid foreign assets at dangerously low levels, markets are nervous about the possibility of default. This report ...

Griesa Declares Argentina in Contempt
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

Local press published that Judge Griesa ruled in today’s hearing that Argentina is in contempt. He has not yet declared what fine he will set on Argentina, which he would announce at a later point. Earlier today, anticipating such decision, the Argentine government sent a note of protest to both ...

Political Insights: Week of September 29
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 29 Sep 2014

This is the final week of campaigning before the first round of the elections, scheduled for next Sunday, October 5.TV Globo will host a debate with gubernatorial and presidential candidates on September 30 and October 2, respectively.Six presidential voting intention polls are registered with th...

In The Search For Money
ECUADOR · Report · 29 Sep 2014

Executive SummaryThe fiscal deficit for 2014 will reach $7272 million or 7% of GDP –the highest since year 2000. The government has secured 74% of financing as of September and needs to raise $3 billion more before year end to cover total financing needs that are at $11.3 billion.In this context ...

Reversal of Unemployment and Caution in the Credit Market
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 29 Sep 2014

For an extended period the unemployment rate measured by the Monthly Employment Survey (PME, covering six metropolitan regions) was only moving in one direction – downward. However, the most recent data indicate a reversal. The participation rate appears to have stopped falling, contributing to a...

Another Wait and See
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

Last Friday, during the hearing between Citi Bank and Holdouts regarding whether debt instruments issued under Argentine law are within reach of Griesa’s “pari pasu" interpretation, the judge decided to postpone the definitive resolution and implement a temporary stay to allow holdouts to present...

Ukraine’s public debt breaks 60% of GDP ceiling
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Sep 2014

In August public debt grew 12.9% m/m up to UAH 945.8 billion ($69.5 billion) which is near 63% of GDP (our estimate of GDP). Refunding of Naftogaz (UAH 46.7 billion) as well as new wave of hryvnia weakening were the key reasons for fast state debt growth through the month. Though this result was ...

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