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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Politics: Shift in Polls Suggest Tightening Race
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The latest GEA-ISA polling results point to a scenario quite different from that observed in September of last year, when the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) enjoyed an edge of three to one over its closest competitor, the National Action Party (PAN), and what ...

Economics: Reform Benefits Start to Kick In
MEXICO · Report · 24 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Mexico’s federal government reported in recent days on the progress that has been achieved to date in relation to the structural reforms that Mexico has adopted since 2012. Significant movement has been recorded in relation to energy, financial telecommunications and labor refor...

Poroshenko vs. Kolomoyskiy: intensified confrontation
UKRAINE · In Brief · 24 Mar 2015

Over the last few days in Ukraine intensified conflict between President Petro Poroshenko and Dnipropetrovsk oblast governor Igor Kolomoyskiy. The point is that the authorities finally dared to overtook control over two state companies (Uktransnafta (oil transit) and Ukrnafta (oil and gas extract...

What’s Been Happening with the Exchange Rate Pass-through to Inflation?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Mar 2015

Nobody doubts that inflation this year will be very high, with the consensus projections now approaching 8%, even with the expectation that the deceleration of economic activity (already starting to be reflected in the unemployment rate) will reduce real wages and slow growth of service prices.

Week of March 23
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 23 Mar 2015

Another presidential popularity poll (CNI/Ibope) may be released. In the economy, we highlight the release of the 2014 GDP. Central Bank President Alexandre Tombini speaks in the Senate on the economic environment, and the committees in charge of the fiscal austerity packages define a work schedu...

Weekly Tracker: March 22-28
TURKEY · Report · 22 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Kurdish Leader Ocalan issued a historic call to PKK to end the armed struggle in Turkey, but details were left deliberately up in the air. President Erdogan suddenly rebelled against his own government, bashing the way the Peace Process is handled. The recent spate of polls hera...

A Battle for the Presidency
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 20 Mar 2015

Executive Summary Preliminary Central Bank estimates put the 2014 NFPS deficit at 3.0% of GDP, 0.2 percentage points above the target. Though this comes as a surprise, definitive figures are yet to be seen. Inflation rebounded to its normal levels February, with deflationary pressures declining a...

Polls Belie Major Political Successes
MEXICO · Report · 20 Mar 2015

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto and his administration have scored some major successes in recent weeks, such as intercepting top crime bosses, indirectly confronting a couple of the country’s most powerful monopolies and uncovering a major case of corruption. But according to the ...

The writing on the wall
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 20 Mar 2015

President Benigno Aquino has been on the receiving end of a string of negative feedbacks lately, all arising from the botched operation to catch two terrorists in Mindanao last January. [For background story on the Mindanao operation, see Quarterly Report, Year of the Bellwether", 11 February.] F...

Week of March 19
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Cid Gomes’s dismissal first step toward ministerial reform The dismissal of the Minister of Education, Cid Gomes (PROS-CE), which took place yesterday afternoon, is a consequence of his clashing with Congress. In opting to remove Cid, the Planalto is signaling a willingness to prevent further det...

Economics: What futures may bring... to the peso
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary The exchange rate has risen consistently since September 2014, climbing to an historical high of 15.57 pesos to the dollar on March 10, which marked an accumulated depreciation of 18.2% since September 2014. In that context, Mexico’s Foreign Exchange Commission, presided over by...

Politics: How State Races Are Shaping Up
MEXICO · Report · 19 Mar 2015

Executive Summary As Mexico prepares for its midterm elections to be held June 7, polling data is still scarce when it comes to many of the contests that will be playing out in state and local races. However, there is just enough data available from reliable sources to give us an idea of how thos...

Rough and tumble politics
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 18 Mar 2015

We would have brushed aside as parochial the drama that has unfolded in the City of Makati were it not for the personalities involved. As it is, the situation where two people are claiming to be the lawful mayor has become a test of wills of sorts between the two leading contenders for the presid...

The Current Account Deficit Shrinks in 2014
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Mar 2015

According to official figures released by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), the deficit in the current account narrowed to 5.1% of the gross domestic product (GDP) of 2014, from 5.8% in 2013. Likewise, the ratio of the current account deficit to GDP shrank by 0.7 of a percentage point betwee...

Datafolha poll
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Mar 2015

Crisis unravels Dilma’s image, and disapproval reaches 62% Nearly three months after the beginning of Dilma’s second term, disapproval of the president reached 62%, according to the most recent Datafolha poll, published today.Only 13% of voters consider the government “great/good”.Since her inaug...

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