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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Employment and Indebtedness Frustrating Recovery of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Aug 2014

In an election year, the government is worried about the ongoing deceleration of the Brazilian economy. On August 28th, the IBGE will release the GDP figures for the second quarter of 2014, and besides possible contraction in relation to the first quarter, the numbers should show a sharp reductio...

Political Insights: Week of August 25
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Aug 2014

The first presidential debate is scheduled for Tuesday, August 26.The three main candidates (Dilma Rousseff, Marina Silva and Aécio Neves) have confirmed they will participate. Three new voter intention polls will be released, the first polls since the beginning of free electoral advertising. On ...

Gray Lists, Fiscal Weaknesses and Political Uncertainty: Martinelli’s Legacy and Varela’s Challenges
PANAMA · Report · 25 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Panama will be on the list of non-compliant countries of three different agencies before the end of the year: GAFI, OCDE and IOSCO. The economic and financial impact of being on these lists is important for reputational reasons and for the possible negative effect on external fi...

Fundamentals will Cushion Against Housing Collapse
CHINA · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Fixed asset investment increased just 15.7% y/y in real terms in July, its slowest rise this year. Industrial output also dipped, rising 9% y/y, slightly less than in June. We expect the government to respond by increasing investment, given its healthy budgetary situation. We...

New Test for the Repo Rate Hiking Cycle Rule
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) will publish the second quarter of 2014 gross domestic growth outcome on 26 August 2014. Following a 0.6 per cent contraction on a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualised basis in Q1 2014, we expect a positive (albeit pedestrian) growth rate in Q2 ...

New Cabinet Includes a Weak Economic Hire
COLOMBIA · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Executive Summary President Juan Manuel Santos’ second-term priorities are state reform, especially to eliminate a president’s ability to run for a second consecutive term; to raise tax collection by at least 2 pp of GDP; and to conclude the FARC peace negotiations. A deal on the latter should be...

Red Blood Cells Needed
CHILE · Report · 22 Aug 2014

Executive Summary The economy is anemic, and the bottom is definitely deeper than previously thought. Retailers have been left with excess stocks. Though construction permits are very dynamic, actual activity in the construction sector, and home sales, is less robust. Imports of capital goods ...

Prof Davutoglu to succeed Erdogan
TURKEY · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

As I predicted, AKP’s top decision-making body convened to select current Foreign Affairs Minister (FAM) Prod Davutoglu as the candidate to replace outgoing Erdogan. Given Erdogan’s conflicting objectives and the limits enforced by the three-term rule, he is probably the best. Nevertheless, he is...

Will GDP growth surprise on the upside?
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

We agree with most analysts' expectations that 2Q14 GDP growth will exceed the 5.7% 1Q14 growth rate. It is after all difficult to ignore the surprisingly strong numbers indicating robust economic activity during the period, with even the agricultural sector posting higher gains. Oddly for us, th...

President Medina stirs the hornet's net on re-election
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014 · 1 response

In answering questions from the media, President Danilo Medina stirred the hornet’s nest. Instead of closing the debate with a clear “no” to the possibility of amending the Constitution to allow him to run again, Medina said that he’ll provide an answer “when the time comes”. This answer contrast...

At last, the Verdict is Final and Binding
INDONESIA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

The Indonesian General Election this year seemed to be like a roller coaster. At one time it was already at the peak of the process when the General Election Commission announced on July 22, 2014, that Joko (Jokowi) Widodo and Jusuf Kalla were the President and Vice President Elect of 2014 – 2019...

Damage Control
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Aug 2014

This Market Brief was originally issued on August 20, 2014 as a post on GSP Direct, the GlobalSource Partners interactive webtool providing clients an initial response to breaking news and developments. In line with what might have been expected[1], the confirmation of Argentina’s legally induced...

What’s Maduro’s Plan?
VENEZUELA · Report · 21 Aug 2014

Executive Summary To say that there’s a “Nicolas Maduro Plan” for the economy is an overstatement. Moreover, insofar as one does exist, we think little of it will be implemented beyond gasoline price hikes. It’s hard to describe the “Maduro Plan” because the government is trying to avoid the impr...

Damage Control
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 21 Aug 2014

In line with what might have been expected[1], the confirmation of Argentina’s legally induced default of its exchanged bonds issued under foreign law convinced the government to move ahead with “damage control” measures ahead of a complex debt negotiation scenario next year. Although the governm...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Aug 2014

Beto will help with Marina’s relationships with the PSB and agribusiness The choice of federal representative Beto Albuquerque (PSB-RS) as Marina Silva’s running mate is important for two reasons.First, he can contribute by bringing Marina closer to the party, whose leadership has reservations ab...

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