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Events
Databanks
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Argentina databank Aug 20
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Brazil Economics databank Aug 16
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Central America databank Aug 30
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Chile databank Jul 22
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China databank Mar 21
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Colombia databank Sep 5
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Dominican Republic databank Jul 18
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Ecuador databank Aug 20
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Gulf Countries databank Sep 6
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Hungary databank Aug 14
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India databank Aug 23
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Mexico databank Jul 9
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Panama databank Jun 7
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Peru databank Aug 22
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Philippines databank Aug 8
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Russia Economics databank Aug 13
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South Africa databank Aug 30
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Turkey databank Jun 10
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Ukraine databank Aug 14
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Venezuela databank Aug 5
NEWS FLASH
UPCOMING WEBINAR - ARGENTINA: UPCOMING TRIGGERS AND REMAINING CONCERNS...
COUNTRY INSIGHTS
Potentially Devastating Revelations
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 07 Sep 2014
Preliminary information resulting from the plea bargain deal, in exchange for cooperation, offered to Paulo Roberto Costa, former Petrobras Director of Supply, is starting to appear and reveal devastating potential. According to Costa, five parties, one governor and 32 parliamentarians were part ...
Wartime Living
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 05 Sep 2014
Russia is increasingly involved in the Ukrainian crisis, both in the international arena and on the ground. Moscow is trying to persuade Kyiv that there is no military solution to the current crisis, which means negotiations with the insurgents in which Russia can be an invaluable mediator but no...
Rift Threatens to Block Agenda
PERU · Report · 05 Sep 2014
Executive SummaryThe souring relationship between Congress and the executive branch is likely to persist. There are already motions to impeach the minister of Energy and Mines (an effort we think will succeed). This will heighten political polarization, which could lead to the ousting of other mi...
‘Cease-fire’ play
UKRAINE · In Brief · 05 Sep 2014
Ukrainian authorities signed cease-fire agreement with separatists. The main question for how long that will last. In our opinion it has poor chances even to start. From the info we see one of the main conditions was withdrawal of Russian military from eastern Ukraine. That could hardly happen be...
Geopolitical Risk Has Started To Materialize
HUNGARY · Report · 04 Sep 2014
Executive Summary As the war in eastern Ukraine was clearly escalating, the forint came under more pressure in recent weeks, its weakening fostered by low domestic interest rates and the central bank’s endeavor to get rid of its non-resident depositors. However, HUF weakness remains measured, as ...
Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 04 Sep 2014
Marina stops growing in Datafolha, and Dilma recovers three points in Ibope The Ibope and Datafolha polls released yesterday presented a very similar scenario.Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Marina Silva (PSB) are technically tied in the 1st round, while Aécio Neves (PSDB) is further and further away fro...
Firming Up – But For How Long?
MEXICO · Report · 03 Sep 2014
Executive Summary Economic news was largely unchanged this month. Areas of weakness, such as internal consumption, tended to fall less, while positive ones, such as industrial activity, recovered faster. The labor market also firmed up, and included the strongest gain in manufacturing employment ...
Maduro’s Announcements
VENEZUELA · Report · 03 Sep 2014
President Maduro’s announcements focus on bureaucratic reorganization, confirming the power of the radical wing of chavismo. The new organization replicates the Cuban hierarchical structure with strong military presence. Both the rhetoric and appointments ratify the political-social model of cont...
Food Is Not the Only Problem
TURKEY · Report · 03 Sep 2014
August CPI inflation came in at 0.1%, slightly above expectations, raising the 12-month rate to 9.5% from 9.3% in July (Table 1; Graph 1). A further increase in food inflation to 14.4% from 12.6% earlier, given last year’s low base, is partly to blame, but it is notable that neither the core infl...
Costa Rica: President’s Fiscal Approach a Risky Bet
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 02 Sep 2014
Executive Summary The outlook for Costa Rica for 2014-2015 is clouded by the fiscal situation.The Central Bank projects a government deficit of 6% of GDP in 2014, and 6.6% in 2015.Clearly those are worrisome numbers. Nor is a solution in sight. Plans to increase revenues are based on improving ta...
Political Insights: Week of September 2
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Sep 2014
Congress begins a concentrated effort this week, the last before the elections.Few important matters will be voted upon, but it will be a fast-paced week due to the electoral races, federal and state.Another presidential debate was scheduled for Monday (9/1).Three new presidential polls will be r...
GDP in the Second Quarter: Worse than Expected
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 01 Sep 2014
Second-quarter GDP fell by 0.6%. This decline not only exceeded the median of expectations, there also were downward revisions of the seasonally adjusted data for the first quarter of 2014 and third of 2013. Instead of expansion of 0.2% in the first quarter this year, the revised figures show a f...
Donetsk encirclement unlocked. Russian regular squads enter the city.
UKRAINE · In Brief · 01 Sep 2014
Situation at the eastern front has aggravated over the last few days. Russian army made a decisive move from south to cut off Ukrainian forces from supplies what made Ukrainian regular army to retreat. Unfortunately, several volunteer battalions have been encircled and totally destroyed – hundred...
Davutoglu Cabinet and the government program: Few new names, fewer new policies
TURKEY · In Brief · 31 Aug 2014
PM-designate Prof Davutoglu broke a speed record by using only 16 hours to form the 62nd government of Turkey. Adding to speed records, the program of the new government will be read today and it will be smoothly confirmed within 3 days. There are only four new names in the 62nd government, which...
Slower Growth and Provincial Growth Disparities
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 31 Aug 2014
Executive Summary Over the past few decades as China’s economy has grown rapidly, there have been significant disparities in the growth rates among different Chinese provinces. I expect that disparities will remain even as the economy continues to slow.While the very different growth rates among ...