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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Expenditures fall anew
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 29 Aug 2014

After a 50% rebound in June, government non-interest expenditures dropped anew by 17% in July. This calls to mind the President’s warning of the “chilling effect” of the Supreme Court decision, handed down on July 1, declaring the administration’s Disbursement Acceleration Program illegal. These ...

Russian intervention officially recognized
UKRAINE · In Brief · 28 Aug 2014

President Petro Poroshenko today spoke to Ukrainians and officially recognized that Russian troops invaded Ukraine. In fact, it was nothing new for everyone; however, after many western observers finally recognizing the fact of Russian invasion Poroshenko also had to do this. Situation aggravated...

Had to Cut Something, I Guess…
TURKEY · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Needless to say, yesterday’s CBT/MPC decision that lowered the O/N lending rate -- from 12% to 11.25% or to 10.75% for primary dealers -- while leaving the reference one-week repo rate intact (see graph), came as a surprise. Our political analyst-cum-cosmic strategist already shared his thoughts ...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Marina expands lead over Aécio and would defeat Dilma in the 2nd round The most recent Ibope poll confirms that we are now faced with a new electoral reality.Former Senator Marina Silva (PSB) has surpassed Aécio Neves (PSDB) and is only 5 percentage points behind the president and reelection cand...

Better 2Q14 Growth But....
PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Aug 2014

In contrast to last quarter’s disappointing performance, 2Q14 GDP growth of 6.4% turned out much better than the 6% consensus forecast and lifted this year’s average growth so far to 6%.The economy’s performance puts it ahead of most ASEAN economies. One can quickly tell from the newly released n...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 28 Aug 2014

Polls reinforce Marina’s situation The Ibope and CNT/MDA polls released this week could not have been better for Marina Silva (PSB) and they reinforce her position as a challenger to Dilma Rousseff, who has been the favorite thus far. There are approximately 40 days left before the first round an...

CBT MPC: The cat and mouse game
TURKEY · In Brief · 27 Aug 2014

CBT surprised all commentators once again, as its MPC decided to keep the reference weekly repo rate steady, but trimmed the ceiling of the notorious “corridor” (O/N lending rate) by 75 basis points. We had anticipated a 25-50 basis point cut prior to the meeting, yet do take the decision as vind...

Recession Averted But Underlying Weakness Prevails
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 27 Aug 2014

Following a 0.6% quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted and annualized (q/q saa) contraction in the first quarter of 2014, the South African economy expanded by the same magnitude in Q2 2014 (see Graph 1). Graph 1 Inflation-adjusted GDP growth rate, South Africa, 2008 Q1 – 2014 Q2 Note: Seasonall...

Time to Move On
INDONESIA · Report · 27 Aug 2014

Executive Summary After a long process, the Constitutional Court upheld Joko “Jokowi” Widodo’s presidential victory, meaning that challenger Prabowo Subianto lost his case alleging that the election had been won by electoral fraud. The verdict makes Jokowi the president-elect; he is to be inaugu...

Creditors of over 95% of all household loans decided to sue the State of Hungary
HUNGARY · In Brief · 26 Aug 2014

Fact: 79 out of the existing total of 400 domestic creditors are now suing the State of Hungary, fighting the assumption laid down in a special parliamentary act approved in July 2014 that all their previous unilateral amendments of loan contracts vis-a-vis households were unfair and thus illegal...

War Aggravates Economic Problems
UKRAINE · Report · 26 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Intensified fighting around Donetsk and Luhansk triggered a 12.1% y/y industrial output slump in July.The Luhansk oblast reported a 56% y/y decline in industrial production, while the Donetsk oblast’s output fell 28.5% y/y that month.In August, military forces intensified their ...

Hurdle of Energy Reform Implementation
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2014

Executive Summary Now that the implementing laws that form the practical underpinning of the country’s energy reform have been signed into law, the new challenge will be to effectively implement them. The degree to which the energy reform proves successful in practice will be crucial for the futu...

Growth Accelerates in 2Q14
MEXICO · Report · 26 Aug 2014

Executive Summary During the second quarter of 2014 Mexico’s Gross Domestic Product reversed the slowdown observed since the beginning of 2013. Original series data from the National Statistics Office (Inegi) for the April through June period show that almost all components of GDP slowed their pa...

MPC Preview: Thorny Dilemmas…
TURKEY · Report · 26 Aug 2014

What will the CBRT/Monetary Policy Committee do tomorrow at its regular monthly meeting? If we are to go with the economics, the answer is relatively straightforward: stop the cuts now. The economic rationale for rate cuts has always been weak, and it is getting weaker by the day. True, growth se...

President dissolves Parliament; early elections appointed for October 26
UKRAINE · In Brief · 26 Aug 2014

Yesterday late at night President Petro Poroshenko dissolved the parliament. New elections have been appointed for October 26. The decision was in line with legislation since a month ago ruling parliament coalition stopped its activity. This step was widely expected in society since many MPs from...

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