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Weekly Tracker: June 29 -July 6
TURKEY · Report · 29 Jun 2014

Executive Summary We upgrade the odds of an Erdogan victory on the second round of presidential balloting to 80% from 65% previously. We also announce our bet for the new PM. Could Erdogan still loose? Read on! A new Bill to advance the Peace Process gained the endorsement of PKK leader Ocalan, t...

One-sided ‘truce’: first blunder of Poroshenko?
UKRAINE · In Brief · 29 Jun 2014

Last week president Poroshenko announced truce for the sake of peaceful resolution of conflict at the East. In general, this step was perceived skeptically (just as a nod towards the West) since none believes in Kremlin’s desire to resume peace. Putin wants Ukraine to be destabilized and peaceful...

One Step Closer To The Markets, One Step Farther From The Left
ECUADOR · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive SummaryThe controversial results –to say the least --of the last sectional elections of February 2014 paired with a tough fiscal situation brought back the pragmatic Correa to the surface once more. After taking a dig to the markets for the last seven years, he brought Ecuador back to W...

Banks are Required to Pay Again
HUNGARY · Report · 27 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The 10-year story of FX-denominated lending by domestic banks and non-bank financial intermediaries to households is approaching its end. These loans, predominantly borrowed in Swiss francs in order to obtain substantially lower interest than HUF rates, became a nightmare from t...

​Upping the ante… once more.
ARGENTINA · In Brief · 26 Jun 2014

Economic Minister Axel Kicillof, just announced that the government made today the transfer to pay the coupons of the Discount bonds which mature on Monday. In total, the payment was close to close to 1bn USD, out of which USD 539nm where transferred to the BoNY to be used to honor debt under US ...

Government Spending Disappoints
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 26 Jun 2014

Early news releases report a disappointing 9% decline in government non-interest expenditues for the month of May. This followed a mere 0.5% growth in spending last month which had been attributed to seasonal slowdown during Lent. Although there is still June performance to consider, weak public ...

Few Sweet Words
CHILE · Report · 25 Jun 2014

​Executive Summary It’s still chilly in Chile. Growth is ever more meager, with no sign of a quick recovery. To the fall in investment we now can add a slowdown in consumption. Though investment has apparently hit bottom, there are clear signs that consumption is still falling. Adverse exter...

Reform Conflict Shifts to the States
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary New complications have emerged in Mexico’s efforts to adopt the secondary laws needed to implement constitutional reforms affecting the energy and telecommunications sectors. The PAN cited two issues last week as it walked out of talks aimed at reaching consensus proposals on pr...

Signs of an Inefficient Fiscal Policy
MEXICO · Report · 25 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Last week’s report on aggregate supply and demand data for the first quarter of 2014 revealed a considerable reduction (-8.5%) in public gross fixed capital formation that stands in sharp contrast to the 33.7% increase registered in public sector budgeted physical investment dur...

What Does A “Good” Chinese Transition Look Like?
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Any plausible definition of an orderly Chinese rebalancing during President Xi Jinping’s administration must include much lower GDP growth for many years. How quickly Beijing is able to rein in credit growth is the main variable determining whether or not the adjustment will be ...

Winning the War is the Only Way Out
UKRAINE · Forecast · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Ukraine’s future now depends upon a rapid resolution to the military conflict with Russia.The situation is still very dicey, but at least three developments suggest Ukraine is well positioned to win.First, the separatists continue to lose support in the region, due to their blat...

June MPC: A Minor Surprise
TURKEY · Report · 24 Jun 2014

The Monetary Policy Committee cut its key interest rate, the weekly repo rate, by a higher than expected 75 bps (versus consensus of a 50 bps cut) down to 8.75%, but left the O/N corridor intact at 8%-12% (see chart). While the cut is more aggressive (25 bps more) than we had envisaged, the fact ...

Is Petrocaribe Financing in Jeopardy?
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 24 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Increasing political and economic turmoil in Venezuela is raising concern over the Dominican Republic’s vulnerability to a fall in financing for Venezuelan oil purchases. Venezuela sells the DR oil and derivatives through its Petrocaribe program, on highly concessional terms, su...

Inflation: No Change in the Trajectory
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 23 Jun 2014

The IPCA-15 for June rose 0.47%, virtually the same as the May IPCA (0.46%). It was also higher than the consensus forecast, which was for further deceleration. Inflation over the past 12 months is now 6.41% and it’s just a question of time before it creeps above the upper limit of the target int...

Growing Reliance on Petrocaribe for Financing
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 23 Jun 2014

Evidence collected for this report suggests that the Dominican Republic is vulnerable to significant changes in the financial conditions in which Venezuela sales oil and derivates through the Petrocaribe program. Together with the United States, Venezuela is the largest oil provider to the DR (ar...

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