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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Cyclical Gains, Structural Pains
TURKEY · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Today’s Q1 growth data surprised slightly on the upside, coming in at 4.3%, y/y versus expectations of around 4%, us included. The quarterly growth rate (seasonally- and working day-adjusted) was puzzlingly strong, at 1.7% (corresponding to an annualized rate of over 7%), but we take these quarte...

PRD: More than a Leader at Stake
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Leadership elections have historically been among the most difficult hurdles to manage for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) and have often been a huge embarrassment for the organization. It is as yet unclear whether this year’s contest will produce similar controvers...

Six-point Growth & Productivity Plan
MEXICO · Report · 10 Jun 2014

Executive Summary Without a doubt the most surprising economic news out of Mexico last week was Banco de México’s announcement that it was lowering its overnight interbank lending rate by 50 basis points to a new record low of 3.0%. It was a move that caught financial markets and analysts entirel...

Ex-mediamagnat appointed Head of President Office
UKRAINE · In Brief · 10 Jun 2014

Boris Lozhkin, ex-owner of UMH media group, was appointed Head of President Office today. In fact impression about this first personnel decision of Poroshenko is quite mixed. Boris Lozhkin is a successful businessman who made his fortune by creating best journals and magazines at the country. And...

Brazil Presidential Election
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2014

Dilma Continues Her Slide in Polls and Reinforces Polarization between the PT and PSDB On Friday, June 6, the Datafolha Institute released a new presidential voting intention poll, conducted June 3-5.The poll shows that President Dilma Rousseff (PT) is still in the lead but continues to lose grou...

Disappointing Growth: The Role of Credit
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jun 2014

The weak GDP growth in the first quarter threw cold water on any remaining optimism about growth in 2014. On the supply side, there are no signs that industry can reverse the current situation, and on the aggregate demand side, neither investments nor household consumption nourish hopes of better...

Energy Reform
CHILE · Report · 09 Jun 2014

Recently the government announced its proposal for Energy Reform. The reform aims to develop “reliable, sustainable, inclusive and affordable energy, a diversified electric generation capacity, and higher levels of sovereignty in Chile´s energy requirements”. With a price above US$150 per MW per ...

Political Insights: Week of June 9
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 09 Jun 2014

A busy week ahead:Two presidential polls will be released, Ibope and Vox Populi.The party convention period also begins.The PMDB is expected to formalize its support for the reelection of President Dilma Rousseff (PT).The PSB launches former Governor Eduardo Campos and former Senator Marina Silva...

Weekly Tracker: June 8-14
TURKEY · Report · 08 Jun 2014

Executive Summary AKP’s bold attempt to reinvigorate the Peace Process with Kurds replaced the Presidential Elections as the top item on the Turkish agenda. While the effort is commendable and potentially lucrative in terms of Kurdish votes, it is open to sabotage by PKK and to mishandling. Feari...

Banxico reacts unexpectedly to a weak economy
MEXICO · In Brief · 06 Jun 2014

Banco de México surprised its domestic and foreign constituencies by reducing interest rates 50 basis points. For some time now, the central bank’s board has considered that inflation is under control as well as inflationary expectations, that have been reduced from an annual 4.1% at the start of...

Has Regionalization Failed?
PERU · Report · 06 Jun 2014

Executive Summary The discovery of massive corruption in several regional administrations may offer an opportunity to change a system that challenges the very notion of a unified state. Regional presidents have, illegally and erroneously, challenged national authority, trying to treat Peru as a f...

Reshaping the Agenda
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Jun 2014

An agreement to establish the Eurasian Economic Union bringing Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan was signed with no obvious substantial progress achieved. Most new parts of the agreement either deal exclusively with institutional matters or address issues that are years ahead in the future making th...

Will Ecuador return to Wall Street?
ECUADOR · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

The operation between the Central Bank and Goldman Sachs involving gold reserves raised a wave of speculative comments. Here is a summary of the operations according to information provided by the BCE general management. The BCE will deposit 465,619 troy ounces of gold in a foreign account manage...

GDP growth for Q1 2014 makes many raise their eyebrows
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014 · 3 responses

The Central Bank released figures of GDP growth for Q1 2014. Once again it was a surprise as they registered an expansion of 5.5% in economic activity. It is true that compared to Q1 2013, the worst quarter for economic growth in year, any recovery would be reflected in relatively strong numbers....

AKP, Ocalan take the Peace Process up a notch
TURKEY · In Brief · 05 Jun 2014

First allow me to express my apologies for delaying this update, promised in our latest Monthly Report. Events in Turkey progressed so rapidly that I felt like a rabbit facing the headlights of an approaching car all week. The resignation of the president of Turkey’s sole big-business lobby, TUSI...

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