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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Central Bank Policy: Which Way is Forward?
HUNGARY · Report · 10 Feb 2014

Executive Summary Since our latest report on 9 January, important new information has surfaced in six areas. This included an eyebrow-raising speech by MNB governor Matolcsy in late January, an official announcement on the third wave of administrative cuts in public utility tariffs, a government ...

Political Insights: Week of February 10
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 10 Feb 2014

The government resumes discussions with the PMDB on ministerial changes. There are rumors that Minister Fernando Pimentel will leave his position this week. In the House, Henrique Eduardo Alves announced that he will put the Internet Framework Law up for a vote, but the lack of consensus could, o...

Gross foreign reserves decline 12.8% against messy situation at the forex
UKRAINE · In Brief · 07 Feb 2014

We observe very ‘mysterious’ developments at the forex market since the start of the year. In January forex daily turnover doubled (to USD 2.3 billion) from average daily turnover in 2013 and on some days even exceeded USD 5.0 billion. Still the sources of the demand remain unclear. There was no ...

Fair Prices or General Price Control?
VENEZUELA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

The recently approved Law on Fair Prices (LOPJ) fully subjects economic activity to state control. The law created a government agency with broad powers to regulate prices, costs and profit margins of all companies and individuals producing goods and services in Venezuela. Penalties and sanctions...

Investment Opportunities in 2014 Q1
COLOMBIA · Report · 07 Feb 2014

Transportation Sector: More than USD35 billion planned over the next five years, with the largest share in roads. Port improvement, airport concessions, railways, waterways, logistics hubs and urban transportation projects are also set for development.Energy and Mining Sectors: After the USD6 bil...

Full Steam Ahead
CHINA · Forecast · 07 Feb 2014

Executive Summary We project growth of 7.5% to 8% in 2014, as long as the domestic and foreign environments are stable. GDP grew 7.7% in 2013, a steady rise from previous years. Quarterly growth was relatively stable, with the slowest rate at 7.5% in Q2, and the fastest at 7.8% in Q3. Strong d...

Battle for Public Space
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 06 Feb 2014

The United People’s Front has grown into a major political force two years after it seemingly lost its momentum following the December 2011 elections. The organization now enjoys both public interest and government support, which allows it to pressure local government officials and compete with t...

A Muddled Outlook
MEXICO · Report · 06 Feb 2014

Executive Summary In this month’s review of economic news, we focus on the stark contrast between the bright promise that structural reforms will serve as major catalysts of economic growth and the chiaroscuro portrait painted by recent indicators on the current state of the Mexican economy. By t...

Unfortunate Glitch
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 05 Feb 2014 · 3 responses

The central bank’s decision to suspend Sicad No.16 led to confusion and hurt the credibility of the new forex policy announced by Rafael Ramírez, Vicepresident for Economic Affairs, on 22 January 2014. It's the first time a Sicad event has been suspended. It was the first auction after Ramírez an...

Industrial Production: A Bad Result in December
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 05 Feb 2014

Industrial production fell sharply in December, causing the fourth-quarter result to fall as well and leading to a downward revision in the overall GDP growth projections for the last quarter of 2013. The negative carry-over left by industry to the start of 2014 suggests growth in the first month...

Central America. El Salvador: Sánchez Cerén almost elected president in the first round
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2014

With 99% of total votes counted, Vice president Salvador Sánchez Cerén of the official FMLN was slightly short of winning the presidency in yesterday´s election, after getting 48.9% of votes. Norman Quijano, of the opposition ARENA party, will be his contender in the March 9th runoff (38.9%% of t...

Central America. Costa Rica: Solis made a strong come from behind and will dispute April 6th runoff to Araya.
CENTRAL AMERICA · In Brief · 03 Feb 2014

Central America. Costa Rica: Solis made a strong come from behind and will dispute April 6th runoff to Araya. With 86% of votes counted, Luis Guillermo Solís of the center-left Citizens´ Action Party (PAC) consolidated an impressive come from behind and led the presidential election with 30.95% o...

Political Insights: Week of February 3
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Congress resumes activity today and proceeds with two priority questions on its agenda: in the House, the Internet Framework Law; and in the Senate, the renegotiation of state and municipal debt with the federal government. The February agenda for the Supreme Federal Court should see the trial on...

The Central Bank and its Difficult Mission
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Emerging countries are being sharply penalized by the markets at the start of this year. The recovery of the advanced economies, especially the American, is reducing global liquidity, which is happening alongside signals of slower growth in China, accentuating the uncertainties. This cycle is the...

Something for Everyone
PERU · Report · 03 Feb 2014

Executive SummaryIn what seemed a Solomonic judgment, The Hague has solved the long-running maritime border dispute between Peru and Chile by awarding something to each. Chile was able to retain more or less intact the grounds it has been fishing for the past 50 years, while Peru has added 50,000...

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