GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary Early last week, the necessary 17-state majority ratified the constitutional reform regarding the energy sector and last Friday, at the National Palace, President Enrique Peña Nieto signed it into law. The enactment itself is likely to produce two main types of political consequ...

(Politics Are) Hot, Hot, Hot

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 24 Dec 2013

Executive Summary The Costa Rican presidential race is heating up, with dark horse leftist candidate José María Villalta advancing. A Unimer poll for the daily La Nación, published in early December, gave Villalta 23.7% of the votes by voters who had made up their minds, while government candidat...

Quis Custodiet Ipsos Custodes?

TURKEY · Report · 22 Dec 2013

The arrests of two sons of Cabinet ministers for charges of influence peddling makes it almost certain that AKP-Gulen battle has passed the point of no return. Like Ergenekon-Sledgehammer trials it shall anger and bemuse the nation for years to come. This is the opening act; the pro-Gulen judicia...

Stagflation Postponed to 2014

VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Venezuela will begin 2014 with growth slowing sharply and inflation remaining sky high. In other words, the country will suffer stagflation. We estimate that GDP will grow by only 1.6 percent this year and shrink by 2.5 percent in 2014. We see inflation rates persisting in the 5...

Moderation Times

PERU · Forecast · 19 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Amid a less favorable international environment, and louder political noise, the Peruvian economy slowed mildly this year. The two main culprits were a decline in exports, and dwindling private investment growth. We expect GDP to grow 5% in 2013, or 1.5 pp below the robust avera...

Where Has All the Spending Gone?

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryPublic investment spending is dragging once again, with probable negative implications for demand, employment and growth. And the 2013 budget deficit is likely to be smaller than expected, though tax revenues are also below target. Tax revenues have been persistently falling shor...

The Challenges Ahead

MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary As we near the end of what could be described as the most congressionally productive year the Mexican government has enjoyed in at least two decades, there is a bit of irony in the fact that the administration that has presided over such an ambitious reform agenda has lower appr...

Economics: Looking for the FDI Tide to Turn

MEXICO · Report · 17 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Mexican Congress passed energy reform amendments to the constitution with the support of the PAN and PRI, and over the opposition of the PRD. The most significant aspect of the reform is the extent to which it opens the industry to private investment through a broa...

AKP vs. Gulen Church: Tooth for tooth

TURKEY · In Brief · 17 Dec 2013 · 3 responses

Turkey was shaken to the roots today, as a nation-wide graft operation was launched, with reportedly -The sons of Ministers Muammer Guler and Zafer Caglayan, -Turkey’s most famous real estate developer Mr. Ali Agaoglu, -Halkbank GM Suleyman Aslan taken into custody. (No names confirmed officially...

Politics: A New Cycle of Reforms

CHILE · Report · 16 Dec 2013

Yesterday Michelle Bachelet, candidate of the coalition Nueva Mayoria, was elected President of Chile with a 62.16% of the preferences against a 37.83% of Evelyn Matthei. In the second round there was a significant reduction in participation compared to the first round. Under the newly implemente...

Political Insights: Week of December 16

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 16 Dec 2013

This is the final week of the year for legislative activity in Congress. The Union Budget is the main item on the agenda. The government’s goal is to conclude voting on the budget bill this week. If the vote is postponed until February, there will be problems for the government, since electoral l...

Economic Activity: What Do The Most Recent Data Indicate?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2013

In the past few days two indicators of economic activity have been published: real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE; and the IBC-Br, which is the proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank. Both indicate growth in October in relation to September. These figures partly allay the negative pictu...

Weekly Tracker: December 15-21

TURKEY · Report · 15 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New polls show AKP having dropped to 46%, but the party is certain to win most big-city races. PKK leaders are threatening war once again, while Kurdish provinces erupted in protest in response to alleged police killings of three citizens. The Ergenekon-Sledgehammer coup plottin...

CNI/Ibope Poll: Positive Evaluations Of The Dilma Administration Increase

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2013

A new CNI/Ibope poll was released today on the Dilma Rousseff administration. Positive evaluations (“great/good”) increased from 37% to 43% (6 points) from September to December, while “regular” evaluations fell from 39% to 35% (4 points) during the same period.Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad...

The Benefit of the Doubt

ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Dec 2013

Executive Summary We wondered before whether the recent appointments suggested a change in economic policy or not. The departure of former Interior Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno and the appointment of Jorge Capitanich as Chief of Cabinet suggested the possibility of a substantial change. After...