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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Breaking Bad
TURKEY · Forecast · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The collapse of the symbiotic partnership between Turkey’s two powerful Islamist groups means that political stability is most likely impaired at least until the local elections, with uncertain prospects thereafter. A significantly higher political risk premium is very bad news ...

Modulating Expectations
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Last week President Enrique Peña Nieto signed into law the constitutional reforms affecting the financial sector. The government expects these changes to encourage competition in the financial services industry and to increase the amount of credit issued by development banks as ...

Heads Up
VENEZUELA · In Brief · 14 Jan 2014

Tomorrow, 15 January 2014, President Nicolás Maduro will present the Annual Presidential Message to the the National Assembly. He has offered to take this opportunity to make "special" announcements. Maduro might announce some of the measures that markets expect, particularly on foreign exchange ...

Next Phase of Reform
MEXICO · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The first major challenge and the central theme of the 2014 political agenda will involve passing secondary legislation necessary for implementation of the major structural reforms approved last year, and then instrumenting those changes. In that regard, 2014 promises to be a mo...

Fiscal Policy: On a Deteriorating Path
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 14 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The primary surplus projections in the financial market are below the target, and the distance between the expected surplus and the target is widening. The government “fulfilled the commitment to the target” in 2013 only due to non-recurring revenues, which amounted to 0.9% o...

Power Price Spike
PHILIPPINES · Report · 13 Jan 2014

One aspect of the 4.1% December inflation rate announced last week that was expected, yet at the same time surprising, was the increase in electricity prices. It was in part expected because the month-long (November 11 to December 10) maintenance of the Malampaya platform, which supplies natural ...

Informal Inflation Target Was Not Attained
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2014

In 2013 the Central Bank failed to meet the informal target of lower inflation than in 2012. In reality, without the government’s abusive use of price control measures, inflation for the year would have been above the upper limit of the target interval (6.5%). This was the fourth straight year th...

Political Insights: Week of January 13
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Jan 2014

President Dilma Rousseff will meet with party leaders to discuss changes to her ministerial team, which should occur in the coming weeks. Another important topic on the political agenda is the sanction of the Union Budget, with a deadline that expires next week. The Central Bank will hold its fir...

2014: A Year of Many Challenges
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 13 Jan 2014

Executive Summary The first problem faced by the government at the start of 2014 is the weak economic growth. The deceleration in payroll levels and slow expansion of consumer credit are limiting growth of household consumption, and the uncertainties about the domestic economy are discouraging...

Weekly Tracker: January 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2014

Executive Summary As the High Commission of Judges and Prosecutors, Turkey’s top judicial body, openly rebelled against AKP, the country entered a full-blown constitutional crisis. Erdogan threatened retaliation against the business community and Gulen Movement when he returned home from the East...

Weekly Tracker: January 12-18
TURKEY · Report · 12 Jan 2014

Executive Summary As the High Commission of Judges and Prosecutors, Turkey’s top judicial body, openly rebelled against AKP, the country entered a full-blown constitutional crisis. Erdogan threatened retaliation against the business community and Gulen Movement when he returned home from the East...

All’s Well that Ends Well
COLOMBIA · Report · 10 Jan 2014

Executive Summary Q3 y/y GDP growth at 5.1% outstripped expectations, of 4.4% on average. As the strongest growth rate in more than six quarters, it has significant implications for monetary policy and the presidential elections, after a Q2 downward revision (to 3.9% from 4.2%) that stoked fears ...

Fundamental Change in Financial Regulation
INDIA · In Brief · 10 Jan 2014

The Indian Financial Code: A bridge too far? Transformative change of the Indian State takes place through big projects. We seem to combine stasis in government, with ground-up rethinking in big projects. Six big projects are now in the fray: Goods and Services Tax (GST) Direct Tax Code (DTC) Ind...

Industrial Production Remains Stagnant
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Jan 2014

Industrial output fell 0.2% in November (seasonally adjusted), bringing the 12-month variation to just 0.4% (Graph 1). Although these rates exceeded the consensus projections, the result is by no means rosy, with the monthly rates continuing their recent pattern of high volatility without any cle...

Introductory Report: Short-term Stability with Serious Sustainability Concerns
HUNGARY · Report · 09 Jan 2014

Executive Summary With a recovery underway, fiscal stabilisation implemented, record low inflation, and a sizeable current and capital account surplus, Hungary shows signs of strengthening macro fundamentals. Sovereign credit and bonds improved substantially, despite the sizable external and gove...

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