GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive SummaryErdogan launched a crusade on its erstwhile ally the Gulen Church, which could morph into the most important schism in Turkish politics of the last decade. Why is he doing that?Barzani’s visit to Diyarbakir generated new energy deals with Iraqi Kurdistan, but no progress on the P...

Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pointed out today that it expects the inflation rate to hang around 6% - the upper limit of the target range. These worries over persistent inflation come even though the headline inflation rate has recently made its way...

Blowing Hot and Cold at the Same Time: Moreno Resigned, Kicillof Economic Minister

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Nov 2013

As we mentioned in our market brief of October 28[1], there were rumors that Hernán Lorenzino would step down as Economic Minister and be replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors speculated that the change would be announced once Cristina Fernández de Kirchner returned from her medical...

New Taxes to Weigh on Economy

MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Chamber of Deputies passed the Federal Spending Budget (FSB) for 2014. It authorizes 8.47 trillion pesos in spending, a real term 8.8% increase over the 2013 spending budget.According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), the budget favors investment expenditure over ...

Shortchanging Public Security

MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration has been roundly criticized for the slow pace with which it has defined some key strategies and programs and has gotten the basic machinery of government up and running since taking office last December. This lethargy has been striki...

A Very Small Step in the Right Direction

TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following, which was the critical sentence of the statement: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious ...

Ibope Poll: Dilma Widens Lead, But Majority Wants Change

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2013

Ibope released a new poll on the 2014 presidential race, conducted from November 7-11. Four possible scenarios were polled. In every scenario, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has a strong lead over her possible adversaries. In the first scenario, presented in Table 1, President Dilma widened her lead over he...

Political Cycles: 2010 and 2014

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2013

Election years are usually accompanied by political cycles: governments abandon fiscal and monetary austerity in search of ways to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. The overall aim is to boost the popularity of the candidate supported by the party in power. This happened in Braz...

Untimely Facelift

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryTrade data revisions and the South African Reserve Bank’s new asset allocation strategy are the latest facelift features of the South African economic landscape. On close inspection, it seems the timing of these measures is reactive. Policymaking has shifted into firefighting gea...

Political Insights: Week of November 18

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2013

President Dilma Rousseff begins the week trying to impede the voting on bills with fiscal impact.On Monday, she meets with senators and, on Tuesday, with her Political Council. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. Congress will try to vote on the LDO and the bill tha...

Weekly Tracker: November 17-23

TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Rojava Kurds declared “autonomy”, an act that will change the progress of the Syrian war and Turkey’s own Peace Process. As the line of first defense, PM Erdogan invited Iraqi Kurdish leader Mr. Barzani to Diyarbakir to sponsor his party and the Peace Process. There are rumors t...

Little Reason to Cheer

VENEZUELA · Forecast · 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryWe extend our forecast horizon to 2015 and see little reason to cheer. The shift toward deeper state intervention that began last October endures. Monetary, exchange rate, fiscal, and price control policy frameworks are kept in place, worsening distortions and sharpening imbalanc...

A Court’s Ruling Divides The Country

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC · Forecast · 15 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryPreliminary figures set GDP growth for January-September 2013 at 2.9%, most of which is due to the growth registered in Q3, estimated at 5.5%. Leading activities during the period were mining, finance, hotels, bars and restaurants, health services, communications, education, othe...

Trying Times

PHILIPPINES · Forecast · 14 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryThese are trying times for President Benigno Simeon Aquino III. Since late July, the nation’s leader has had to face down an armed conflict in the south, deal with public anger over the theft of public funds and the pork barrel system, counter questions about the legality of his ...

Marching Steadily Ahead

CHINA · Report · 13 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Though news that the economy grew 7.7% this year through Q3 was enthusiastically welcomed by China’s policy community, many are concerned about what Q4 will bring. The most powerful contributor to Q3 growth was the accelerated rise in industrial output, up 9.6% for the fir...