GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

Executive Summary President Rafael Correa sounded very optimistic when he announced sharply higher projections for economic performance, not only for 2013, but for the next three years as well.The government expects GDP to grow 4.1% this year, then 4.5% in 2014, 4.7% in 2015 and 6.5% in 2016. Aut...

Political Insights: Week of November 25

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 25 Nov 2013

A very busy week in Brasília:The Federal Supreme Court rules on a case with potential impact for banks in the billions. The Copom holds its final meeting of the year to decide on interest rates.In the House, leaders try to build an agreement to vote on the Internet Framework Law.Petrobras may ann...

The Signals from the Labor Market

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Nov 2013

Since the middle of 2012, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate has been holding steady near historic minimum levels. However, this is not the result of hiring from a growing labor force flow, which if true would indicate progressive tightening of the job market. In reality what has been happ...

Growth Revival? Don’t Hold Your Breath

CHINA · Forecast · 25 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Though GDP rose 0.2 pp in Q3, to 7.8 y/y, the pick-up was mainly due to certain temporal factors. Q4 growth is likely to retreat to 7.7% in Q4, and next year. Investment expansion has been the main growth driver, and is increasing faster than last year. Infrastructure and urban ...

Weekly Tracker: November 24-30

TURKEY · Report · 24 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryErdogan launched a crusade on its erstwhile ally the Gulen Church, which could morph into the most important schism in Turkish politics of the last decade. Why is he doing that?Barzani’s visit to Diyarbakir generated new energy deals with Iraqi Kurdistan, but no progress on the P...

Elevated Inflation Risks Concern the SARB

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 21 Nov 2013

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) pointed out today that it expects the inflation rate to hang around 6% - the upper limit of the target range. These worries over persistent inflation come even though the headline inflation rate has recently made its way...

Blowing Hot and Cold at the Same Time: Moreno Resigned, Kicillof Economic Minister

ARGENTINA · Report · 20 Nov 2013

As we mentioned in our market brief of October 28[1], there were rumors that Hernán Lorenzino would step down as Economic Minister and be replaced by Vice Minister Axel Kicillof. The rumors speculated that the change would be announced once Cristina Fernández de Kirchner returned from her medical...

New Taxes to Weigh on Economy

MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Last week the Chamber of Deputies passed the Federal Spending Budget (FSB) for 2014. It authorizes 8.47 trillion pesos in spending, a real term 8.8% increase over the 2013 spending budget.According to the Ministry of Finance (SHCP), the budget favors investment expenditure over ...

Shortchanging Public Security

MEXICO · Report · 20 Nov 2013

Executive Summary President Enrique Peña Nieto’s administration has been roundly criticized for the slow pace with which it has defined some key strategies and programs and has gotten the basic machinery of government up and running since taking office last December. This lethargy has been striki...

A Very Small Step in the Right Direction

TURKEY · Report · 19 Nov 2013

Today, the CBT/MPC kept all policy rates (weekly repo and O/N corridor) unchanged as expected, but said the following, which was the critical sentence of the statement: "In order to contain the impact of these developments on the pricing behavior, the Committee decided to strengthen the cautious ...

Ibope Poll: Dilma Widens Lead, But Majority Wants Change

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 19 Nov 2013

Ibope released a new poll on the 2014 presidential race, conducted from November 7-11. Four possible scenarios were polled. In every scenario, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has a strong lead over her possible adversaries. In the first scenario, presented in Table 1, President Dilma widened her lead over he...

Political Cycles: 2010 and 2014

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Nov 2013

Election years are usually accompanied by political cycles: governments abandon fiscal and monetary austerity in search of ways to stimulate aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. The overall aim is to boost the popularity of the candidate supported by the party in power. This happened in Braz...

Untimely Facelift

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Nov 2013

Executive SummaryTrade data revisions and the South African Reserve Bank’s new asset allocation strategy are the latest facelift features of the South African economic landscape. On close inspection, it seems the timing of these measures is reactive. Policymaking has shifted into firefighting gea...

Political Insights: Week of November 18

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Nov 2013

President Dilma Rousseff begins the week trying to impede the voting on bills with fiscal impact.On Monday, she meets with senators and, on Tuesday, with her Political Council. In the House, we highlight the vote on the Internet Framework Law. Congress will try to vote on the LDO and the bill tha...

Weekly Tracker: November 17-23

TURKEY · Report · 17 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Rojava Kurds declared “autonomy”, an act that will change the progress of the Syrian war and Turkey’s own Peace Process. As the line of first defense, PM Erdogan invited Iraqi Kurdish leader Mr. Barzani to Diyarbakir to sponsor his party and the Peace Process. There are rumors t...