GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

This is the final week of the year for legislative activity in Congress. The Union Budget is the main item on the agenda. The government’s goal is to conclude voting on the budget bill this week. If the vote is postponed until February, there will be problems for the government, since electoral l...

Economic Activity: What Do The Most Recent Data Indicate?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 16 Dec 2013

In the past few days two indicators of economic activity have been published: real retail sales, estimated by the IBGE; and the IBC-Br, which is the proxy for GDP estimated by the Central Bank. Both indicate growth in October in relation to September. These figures partly allay the negative pictu...

Weekly Tracker: December 15-21

TURKEY · Report · 15 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New polls show AKP having dropped to 46%, but the party is certain to win most big-city races. PKK leaders are threatening war once again, while Kurdish provinces erupted in protest in response to alleged police killings of three citizens. The Ergenekon-Sledgehammer coup plottin...

CNI/Ibope Poll: Positive Evaluations Of The Dilma Administration Increase

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 13 Dec 2013

A new CNI/Ibope poll was released today on the Dilma Rousseff administration. Positive evaluations (“great/good”) increased from 37% to 43% (6 points) from September to December, while “regular” evaluations fell from 39% to 35% (4 points) during the same period.Negative evaluations (“bad/very bad...

The Benefit of the Doubt

ARGENTINA · Report · 11 Dec 2013

Executive Summary We wondered before whether the recent appointments suggested a change in economic policy or not. The departure of former Interior Trade Secretary Guillermo Moreno and the appointment of Jorge Capitanich as Chief of Cabinet suggested the possibility of a substantial change. After...

The Central Bank’s Next Move

MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Mexico’s monetary authority decided last week to leave its TIIE interbank lending rate at 3.5%. Banco de México said it based its decision on the idea that inflation would remain near 3.5% for the balance of the current year and throughout 2014, and then trend lower until inters...

Growth: Resilient, But Still Unbalanced

TURKEY · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Turkish GDP expanded by 4.4% in Q3, y/y, as in the previous quarter, which was better than the consensus as well as our even softer forecast of some 3.5%. The working day and seasonally-adjusted growth was 0.9%, q/q; the latter is now running at a 4-quarter rolling 1.1%, or an annualized rate of ...

The Final Touches on Energy Reform

MEXICO · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Executive Summary After the Party of the PRD abandoned reform talks, the PAN and PRI began to toughen their respective negotiating positions as the political and time constraints that accompany the very final days of the regular session of Congress provide greater incentives to bargain all the mo...

Our take on the December 8 Elections

VENEZUELA · Report · 10 Dec 2013

Winners and losers Nicolas Maduro and PSUV are clear winners in the December 8 municipal elections. They have good reasons to celebrate even if the joy was not complete. According to the National Electoral Council, PSUV led the national vote count by a 6.5 percent margin over the opposition coali...

Confused Reactions to a Worsening Scenario

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2013

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The GDP result for the third quarter put paid to optimism regarding Brazilian growth. Not only have the perspectives worsened for 2013; the outlook is now more likely for mediocre growth in 2014. If we take stock prices as a leading indicator of growth, they point to acceleratio...

The Current Account Deficit and Fiscal Policy

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 09 Dec 2013

Between December 2012 and the end of last October, the current account deficit rose from US$ 54.2 billion, or 2.4% of GDP, to US$ 82.2 billion, or 3.7% of GDP (Graph 1). The worsening of the current accounts closely follows the decline of the trade balance, which are near zero and are only not wo...

Mandela’s Macroeconomic Policy Legacy Persists

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Dec 2013

The passing of new South Africa’s founding president, Nelson Mandela, affectionately known as Madiba, is yet another remarkable moment in the country’s young democratic dispensation. Once again, the nation has arisen to defy all predictions of chaos and negativity – instead unifying across all ra...

Weekly Tracker: December 8-14

TURKEY · Report · 08 Dec 2013

Executive Summary Last Monday AKP extended an olive branch to the Gulen Church by delaying the closure of private tutoring schools for two years. This gesture may reduce the “headline” risk, but mutual sniping and harping continues, suggesting a permanent rift. There are very few election polls, ...

A New Leading Indicator of Economic Activity

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary In this report, we present a new leading indicator of economic activity in Brazil. Its most important characteristic is to forecast the turning points of economic cycles. Our methodology follows that of the OECD. In constructing our indicator, we started with 52 candidate variab...

In Bad Company

PERU · Report · 06 Dec 2013

Executive Summary New Prime Minister Cesar Villanueva, quite successful as president of the San Martin region at eradicating coca leaf crops, has been lauded for his hands-on approach to governance. That will be a refreshing change, as Villanueva’s predecessor seemed uncomfortable with decision-m...