GlobalSource Partners | Country Insights

After a few bad prints of late, CPI inflation surprised favorably today, which is not that unusual historically, given the mean reverting nature of the gap between actual and forecasted inflation (Graph 1).The surprise, in turn, as it is also often the case, was driven by food prices to a large e...

New Inklings of Growth

MEXICO · Report · 03 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryThe economic data released last month mainly corresponded to September and October, and for the most part was negative. Consumer confidence slumped significantly in September (3.3 index points lower than August’s reading), and in October (2.9 points below that of September). The ...

RSA Secures its Place among the “Fragile Five”

SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 03 Dec 2013

According to a set of figures released today by the South African Reserve Bank, the current account deficit has remained in excess of 5% of GDP since 2012 (see Graph 1). This – coupled with a shortfall in the government balance as well as anemic growth – suggests that South Africa has secured its...

Political Insights: Week of December 2

BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 02 Dec 2013

A full economic agenda this week:On Tuesday, IBGE releases revised GDP results for 2012 and economic performance figures for Q3. On Thursday, the Central Bank releases the minutes of the most recent meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee. On Friday, IBGE releases November’s IPCA. In the House o...

What Can Be Expected From Fiscal Policy?

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Participants in the financial market have long known that at the moment the rating agencies change a country’s risk rating, the risk premiums remain virtually unchanged. Therefore, from the standpoint of their reflection on asset prices, changes in countries’ ratings are “non-events”. The reason ...

Glimmers of Recovery

INDIA · Forecast · 02 Dec 2013

Executive SummaryWe see signs of recovery after the downturn that started in 2010. Q3 data signaled improvements in output, investment and business confidence. Conditions may improve further in Q4, as the damage to Q3 growth caused by defense of the rupee recedes, and as the expansionary impact o...

Boring Race, Known Outcome

COLOMBIA · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Executive Summary The most important new political development is, of course, the news that President Juan Manuel Santos will run for president in 2014. The organizational apparatus is already in place, with Germán Vargas-Lleras and Juan Mesa in Fundación Buen Gobierno; Roberto Prieto returning f...

Surprise Tightening

INDONESIA · Report · 02 Dec 2013

Executive Summary As many predicted, GDP growth softened further in Q3, confirming the recent declining trend. Growth was 5.62%, and 5.83% for first nine months of the year. But the balance of payments improved mildly, with the current account deficit shrinking to 3.8% of GDP from 4.4%. Still, t...

A Long, Cold Winter?

TURKEY · Report · 01 Dec 2013

According to recent polls, AKP is firmly ahead in the March local election races. We bet it will keep Istanbul and Ankara, as well as most of the large cities. Yet, for PM Erdogan’s presidential campaign, the party needs to surpass 50%, which is likely to be missed.The unexpected declaration of w...

Honduras: Rough Road Ahead

CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 28 Nov 2013

Executive Summary Honduran President-elect Juan Orlando Hernández will have to navigate a rough road, after a polarizing campaign that divided the country. Hernández will face major challenges, including political fragmentation, a likely divided Congress, security risks, muted economic growth and...

Credit: Effects of the Bank Strike and Some Moderation by Public Banks

BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 28 Nov 2013

The total stock of credit as a percentage of GDP remained virtually unchanged in October, at 55.4%, versus 55.5% in September. The growth of credit in real terms continued to decelerate, reaching 8.3% in the 12 months through October (Graph 1). In September and October, this deceleration may have...

Trimming Growth Forecasts

PHILIPPINES · Report · 28 Nov 2013

GDP growth reached 7% in 3Q13, its fifth straight quarter in the seven-and-above level.While clearly decelerating as expected from the 1H13 growth pace, it remains one of the highest in the region, surpassing growth in other Southeast Asian economies. Looking at demand-side components, the patter...

New Glimmers of Accountability

MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2013

Executive Summary When the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) reclaimed the presidential mansion of Los Pinos after a 12-year absence following last year’s election of President Enrique Peña Nieto, there were widespread concerns we might witness a return to the opacity, corruption and lack o...

Quarterly Report, October 2013

INDIA · Forecast · 27 Nov 2013

Output Growth Slips Further Figure: GDP growth Source: National Accounts Statistics and authors’ calculations GDP growth in India slowed to 4.4% in April-June 2013. The slowdown is more pronounced if we exclude agriculture and government expenditure. GDP excluding agriculture and government captu...

2014 Budget: More of the Same

MEXICO · Report · 27 Nov 2013

Executive Summary The Chamber of Deputies approved a final expenditure law for 2014 that contained few surprises or major changes from the original draft of the spending bill proposed by the administration of President Enrique Peña Nieto. The scant changes that were introduced were largely design...