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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

The President’s hopes for the 4th Industrial Revolution to bring inclusive economic growth in South Africa
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 09 Jul 2019

On February 16 2018, a day after assuming office as the 5th President of South Africa, Mr Cyril Ramaphosa delivered his inaugural State of the Nation Address (SONA), admitting that the country has had to function under difficult conditions. Poverty levels have been increasing in recent years afte...

​Ali Babacan quits AKP, launches new Movement
TURKEY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2019

Former Minister of Foreign Affairs and better known as economy czar under Erdogan, Ali Babacan formally submitted his resignation to AKP yesterday, at the same time announcing the formation of a new Movement. I consider his departure from AKP a significant milestone in the evolution of the conser...

Mostly good news on CPI-inflation in June
HUNGARY · In Brief · 09 Jul 2019

This morning's release of the June CPI-inflation data resulted in decreases by the yoy rates of three of the four key indicators, whereas the fourth one remained unchanged. Most importantly, the headline inflation rate fell to 3.4% yoy from the 3.9% yoy reported in May, and the MNB's main policy ...

Politics: Democratic perception paradox
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2019

At a time when many political analysts, as well as social and economic agents, are growingly increasingly alarmed that aspects of President López Obrador's project and style of governing are leading to an excessive concentration of power that if left unchecked could lead to democratic regression,...

Economics: Changing job market and mood
MEXICO · Report · 08 Jul 2019

At first glance, the economic uncertainty and major policy overhauls that have characterized the first seven months of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s administration don’t appear to have led to changes in the country’s job market on a significant scale. However, there are some signs that ...

Optimism about Pension Reform before the recess
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2019

Expectations surrounding the Pension Reform vote are growing. The speaker of the House, Rodrigo Maia (DEM-RJ), is working to conclude the process before the congressional recess begins, on July 18. The rapporteur of the LDO, Rep. Cacá Leão (PP-BA), presents his final report. On Wednesday, IBGE re...

NEW - GlobalSource Partners adds Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) coverage
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 08 Jul 2019

With the inclusion of GCC countries in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and in the JP Morgan EMBI Index, and an anticipated $30-60 billion expected to flow into the region, we are pleased to announce the expansion of our emerging markets coverage to include Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries...

Datafolha: After six months in office, the Bolsonaro administration divides public opinion
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 08 Jul 2019

The Datafolha survey released today, July 8, shows that after six months as president of Brazil, opinion regarding Jair Bolsonaro is divided. This result can be explained by Bolsonaro’s strategy of betting on controversial issues, such as legalizing the possession of firearms, which divide public...

Frustration over infrastructure and despondency regarding monetary easing
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 08 Jul 2019

The global economy is clearly decelerating its growth rate, but the prices of assets have been appreciating. The same pattern applies to Brazil, where there are no forces on either the aggregate demand or supply side to pull the economy out of the doldrums. The IBOVESPA has already risen above th...

Markets will react today to the BoI rate forecast
ISRAEL · Report · 08 Jul 2019

The fiscal deficit (LTM) moved higher in June to 3.9% GDP. The fiscal deficit is increasing and is likely to breach 4% GDP this year. Wage growth has moderated recently, up 3.0% y/y in April from 3.8% in March. Israeli saving institutions reduced their FX exposure in May to 16.5% from 17.2% in Ap...

Disinflation: a pyrrhic victory
VENEZUELA · Report · 08 Jul 2019

Disinflation is being driven by a sharp decline in consumption. Companies protect their cash flow by adjusting product lines and prices, generating volatility and lengthening the disinflation phase begun in February. We are seeing food price increases being followed by decreases one or two week...

What we can learn from the Baoshang takeover
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 07 Jul 2019

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The sudden takeover of Baoshang Bank on May 24 shocked markets and caused interbank interest rates to soar, probably because it suggested that lenders to Chinese banks might have to start taking responsibility for poor credit decisions. • Baoshang, h...

Analyzing the Budget announcement of July 5, 2019
INDIA · Report · 07 Jul 2019

The July budget speech, of the NDA-3, is the first of a five-year period. It is expected to establish the priorities and the work program of the coming five years. It takes place at a time when there is significant financial and economic stress. On about July 18, we will release our business cycl...

CBRT Governor has been dismissed
TURKEY · Report · 07 Jul 2019

CBRT Governor Mr. Murat Cetinkaya’s abrupt and rather arbitrary dismissal speaks volumes about President Erdogan’s intentions going forward, which is the topic of the first essay in the Politics section. While we still give him the benefit of doubt, he seems in no rush to announce ground-breaking...

Russian budget execution being reformed
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 07 Jul 2019

The Ministry of Finance suggested that a proper treasury payment system be introduced. This shall shift all budget transactions from ministries, regions and so on to the treasury. The aim is to move to a system of uniform accounting in the budget system. There are over 50 000 government accounts ...

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