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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Monetary easing in the second half of 2019?
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 11 Feb 2019

The SELIC rate will remain at 6.5% for the time being, but a scenario of monetary easing in the second half of the year is starting to take shape. The GDP growth projections for 2019, which were around 2.5%, are being revised downward, and even with approval of a robust pension reform (in the bes...

January's fiscal data is expected to impact the bond market
ISRAEL · Report · 11 Feb 2019

Robust wage growth remains a factor supportive of some inflationary pressure. On the other hand, the shekel continues to appreciate, moderating inflationary pressure. Higher rental prices and likely tax hikes following the election will be the main factors contributing to inflation this year (we ...

Google willing to co-operate with Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

Google has allegedly agreed to share results for forbidden sites with the Russian authorities. The co-operation is not as extensive as Moscow asked for. This story is not yet confirmed. Google does not want to jeopardize market access. Some shareholders and employees of the company will be unhapp...

Headline CPI-inflation to decelerate further on fuel prices in January
HUNGARY · In Brief · 11 Feb 2019

CPI-inflation data for January is due tomorrow morning. Portfolio.hu says its analyst consensus is 2.7% yoy for the headline rate, unchanged from December. This would imply 0.3% mom.We do not quite agree with this consensus. Non-fuel inflation was 0.2% mom in January 2017 and 2018 alike, followin...

Evaluation of the year speech: no word at all on competitiveness
HUNGARY · In Brief · 10 Feb 2019

PM Orbán held his usual evaluation of the year speech today, which is his version of a state of the nation speech, delivered usually at some point around this time each year. Expectations were raised this time by official and semi-official indications, according to which the prime minister would ...

Reinventing populism
TURKEY · Report · 10 Feb 2019

A recent AREA poll confirms our assertion that the AKP-MHP alliance is slipping in nation-wide standings, while city-by-city polls by several agencies reveal it could lose three key races to the opposition. The primary reason behind voter discontent appears to be poor economic management, which P...

Russian Ministry of Finance might change borrowing policy
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2019

As of February 13 the Ministry of Finance might stop announcing the weekly volume of OZR (RUR denominated debt) issuances ahead of auction. The government wants more flexibility in view of market volatility. The government would like to be able to sell bonds based on investor demand. Demand has b...

Russia's GDP grew by 2.3% - at least officially
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 09 Feb 2019 · 3 responses

The Russian Statistical Commission (Rosstat) announced that in 2018 the GDP grew by 2.3%. This is surprising and most of the growth occurred in the last quarter of the year. In the first nine months growth was only 1.6% which makes the October to December period all the more remarkable. 2.3% exce...

The President once again sweet-talking investors at Mining Indaba 2019
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 08 Feb 2019

​The 25th Investing in African Mining Indaba, the most prominent and likely the biggest mining investment event in Africa, took place in Cape Town from February 4-7 with an estimated 6,000 delegates. The organizers of the event indicated that this year’s event would be focused more on deal-making...

China’s illegal shoppers: New rules may slow capital outflow
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 08 Feb 2019

“Daigou,” a new word produced as the result of burgeoning e-commerce in China, refers to personal shoppers who purchase overseas goods for mainland Chinese consumers for a fee. Unlike cross-border e-commerce, daigou is a gray market where consumers enjoy lower prices and, most important, no impor...

Detailed forecast for the Argentine economy 2019 and 2020
ARGENTINA · Forecast · 07 Feb 2019

​This report complements the first quarterly forecast, entitled, “Argentina 2019: at a crossroad again” offering detailed projections for the most relevant variables for one of the three scenarios described in that forecast. We assume that Macri’s government will be able to fully implement the...

President Ramaphosa’s 2019 State of the Nation Address: Growth, government reform and job creation emphasized
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 07 Feb 2019

President Ramaphosa delivered his second State of the Nation Address (SONA) with a blend of honesty and hope. He acknowledged the setbacks experienced in a number of areas. He highlighted the considerable harm to the country resulting from corruption, especially arising from “state capture” in th...

EL SALVADOR: Nayib Bukele wins presidential election in the first round
CENTRAL AMERICA · Report · 06 Feb 2019

As we have been updating in previous reports, presidential election in El Salvador took place last Sunday February 3rd, 2019. By Monday the Electoral Court announced Nayib Bukele as the winner by an ample majority of 53% of valid votes. His two main contenders came from the two political parties ...

More government investment promised
CHINA · Forecast · 06 Feb 2019

Infrastructure investment growth saw its first rise in October 2018, up 3.7% y/y, and up 0.4 pps from September. This has been underscored in recent intensive announcements for new openings and approvals of mega-projects. The Chinese government’s relatively low public debt, at 47.6% of GDP, has m...

Russians feel pessimistic about the economy but austerity is ending
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 05 Feb 2019

The Russian Government is easing off austerity. Government spending is due to rise 8% this year. Most of the rise will go to National Projects. Spending was cut four years in a row. Incomes have fallen for five years in a row in real terms. Polls show most people are despondent about the economy....

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