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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Consumption dips as growth hits new low
CHINA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

Top leaders’ annual Central Economic Work Conference, held from December 19th to 21st, set countering the ongoing growth downturn as its main 2019 goal for the economy. Leaders pledged to cut taxes and fees “on a greater scale;” to increase the issuance of local government bonds by “a relatively...

Politics: Discontent with 2019 budget grows
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2018

Given the absence of any significant tax changes, the revenue side of President López Obrador’s 2019 budget proposals has not attracted much controversy. But the government’s commitment to cap tax rates, expand the primary surplus and pursue costly new social programs led it to make deep cuts els...

Economics: Budget search for credibility lost
MEXICO · Report · 26 Dec 2018

The new government’s 2019 budget package includes relatively credible economic and financial assumptions underpinning a relatively austere budget proper as evidenced by a low fiscal deficit as the new government proposes some deep spending cuts to make room for its ambitious social policy agenda....

Official date confirm our estimations of deceleration
PANAMA · Report · 26 Dec 2018

According to data published by the Comptroller's General Office last week, real GDP grew 3.6% in Q3 and 3.6% from January to September. In YTD terms, growth was driven by transportation and communications, commerce, health and social services, realty and services to business, financial intermedia...

US withdrawal from Afghanistan has pros and cons for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Dec 2018

Trump's 22 December announcement that he will withdraw most troops from Afghanistan is good news for Russia. Its influence in Russia will be enhanced. Former USSR countries in Central Asia will be even more heavily reliant on Russia than before to help them against ISIS and the Taleban now that t...

Low inflation and elevated global risks support rate stability in January
ISRAEL · Report · 24 Dec 2018

Highlights: * Housing starts have slowed this year to an annual pace of 46k units. - On the other hand residential completions have accelerated. - Increasing completions is likely to have a moderating impact on housing rental prices (increasing housing inventory). - Our inflation foreca...

Essential CIS Politics: December 2018
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 24 Dec 2018

Russia vows to restrict NATO warships in Arctic Ocean - On November 30 Russia promised to limit the movement of warships from NATO countries in the Arctic Ocean. This ocean to the north of Russia is of strategic importance. Goods and exported from Russia and imported to Russia via this route. Glo...

US pulling out of Syria strengthens Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 24 Dec 2018

Trump announced that the US is withdrawing from Syria. This is largely welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes bombed Russia's Syrian allies. On the other hand the US help against ISIS was sometimes useful and Russia now has considerable responsibility, with Iran the other major back...

The European Commission is finally paying its dues, creating abundant liquidity for the government
HUNGARY · In Brief · 23 Dec 2018

Although neither the government, nor the European Commission are specifically saying so, the publicly available cohesion policy data of the latter make it clear that the EU Commission has just paid very substantial amounts of transfers due to Hungary. Our own estimates show the payments, in Decem...

Putin's annual press conference has only tepid good news
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 22 Dec 2018

President Putin held his annual marathon press conference. There was little good news to report. Wages have increased 0.4% YoY - that was the best statistic to report. The president said ''Russia needs a breakthrough'' but did not suggest how this would happen. President Poroshenko of Ukraine was...

Inflation is receding but political uncertainty keeps the risk premium high
ARGENTINA · Report · 21 Dec 2018

​Monthly inflation went down in November and will probably recede even more in December. This is the consequence of the stability of the exchange rate that was achieved since the beginning of October when the Central Bank announced its constant monetary base target for the period October 2018 to ...

The Colombian quilting bee
COLOMBIA · Report · 21 Dec 2018

​According to the Merriam-Webster dictionary, a quilting bee is “a social gathering of women at which they work together at making quilts or doing other quilted work”. If the word “women” is replaced by “members of Congress”, we get a pretty good description of what happened with the tax reform (...

How different will be 2019 from 2018?
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Ecuador will close year 2018 with a dismal GDP y-o-y growth of 1% and perspectives for 2019 are not more encouraging. Economic transition from the Socialism of the 21st Century to a more sustainable model, will take place later than sooner due to an excessively cautious economic policy and to ...

Year end note
PHILIPPINES · Report · 21 Dec 2018

In this report, we leave readers with some charts of what we think is the more enduring story moving forward. We wish everyone a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

December’s economic work conference
CHINA FINANCIAL · Report · 21 Dec 2018

Special points to highlight in this issue: • The annual Economic Work Conference ended today, and Beijing has released the official statement summarizing the event. It said most of the things we expected it to say. In 2019 Beijing will continue to try to walk the impossibly fine line between sti...

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