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Russian Ministry of Finance proposes procurement reform
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 25 Feb 2019

The Russian Finance Minister (Anton Siluanov) has ordered his civil servants and the treasury to overhaul the public procurement procedure. Like many aspects of government it is byzantine in its complexity and slow, which Siluanov publicly acknowledges. Streamlining this will help the government ...

Exchange rate and pension reform
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Bets on the exchange rate are frequent, and in general extreme. In July 2018 and thereabouts, some observers were predicting the real would be as weak as R$ 4.50/US$, and now some affirm that if the pension reform proposal (with what terms?) is approved, the real will strengthen to R$ 3.00/US$. B...

Politics: Dismantling autonomy one cut at a time
MEXICO · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Since taking office, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s daily morning press conferences have become his bully pulpit. The week before last he narrowed his sights on several autonomous government bodies, with the most intense barrages reserved for the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) and it...

Pension reform and fiscal consolidation
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 25 Feb 2019

If the pension reform proposal sent to Congress by the Bolsonaro administration is approved in full, it will generate savings of a bit over R$ 1 trillion in 10 years, a larger figure than that of the original proposal from the Temer government. Any dilution of this proposal by Congress will have ...

Financial indicators reviving
CHINA · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Due to the seasonal lack of comparable y/y data in the month of Chinese New Year, we can only analyze data from imports and exports, and on financial conditions and price levels. Prices are trending downwards. The ex-factory price index of industrial goods has been slowing for the past three mont...

Rate hold decision today on new forward guidance aiming for 2% inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 25 Feb 2019

Recent economic indicators point to steady growth near potential (3%) at end-2018. Nevertheless, some slack in the labor market and the sharp decline in the PMI point to softer growth ahead. We expect a rate hold decision today, on the new forward guidance aiming for 2% inflation. Foreigners wer...

An election to end all elections
TURKEY · Report · 24 Feb 2019

The Politics Section begins with a brief exposition to introduce the rival camps in Turkey at the eve of March 31st local elections, which boils down to AKP-MHP versus CHP-IYIP, the latter with tacit support of pro-Kurdish HDP in non-Kurdish majority provinces. Poll data, more scarce compared to ...

Another upgrade to BBB/Stable, from Fitch Ratings this time
HUNGARY · In Brief · 24 Feb 2019

Just one week after S&P's similar move, Fitch Ratings upgraded the government of Hungary to BBB/Stable on February 22, from the previous BBB-/Positive level, at which Hungary had been staying since November 2017. The agency's reasoning was quite similar to S&P's: they were impressed by the recent...

The passing of BSP Governor Nestor Espenilla
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 24 Feb 2019

Many had surmised that his job, particularly stressful last year with inflation on the uptrend, was probably making BSP Governor Espenilla's tongue cancer worse. His intermittent medical leaves signaled a daunting disease. But even though people thought it was only a matter of time before he resi...

Concerns at the top despite high credit growth
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 22 Feb 2019

Premier Li Keqiang warned about excessive credit growth in a meeting at the State Council this week. The January data would seem to confirm the excess growth. Li’s comments suggest conflict within the senior levels of government about the degree of monetary expansion. We just spent several days i...

Agreement Number 19
ECUADOR · Report · 21 Feb 2019 · 1 response

After much hesitation, the government reached an extended fund facility for $4.2 billion with the IMF, which according to President Moreno´s statement, will open the door to $6.0 billion from the World Bank, the IDB, CAF, the European Investment Bank, FLAR and the French Development Agency. This ...

Higher coupons on HUF government bonds sold to households
HUNGARY · In Brief · 21 Feb 2019

ÁKK is raising the coupons it pays on the HUF-denominated half-year government bond sold only to households to 2.5% from 2%, and on the similar one-year bond to 3% from 2.5%, from February 25. In addition, the 5-year inflation-indexed household bond's coupon will jump to 4.5% from 4.1% after the ...

South Africa’s 2019 Budget: Tough decisions made, but will it be enough?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 20 Feb 2019

South African Budget 2019 was delivered today by Finance Minister Tito Mboweni, his maiden Budget Speech following the delivery of the Mid Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) in October 2018, a mere two weeks after taking over as the new Minister of Finance. The Minister had indicated that South...

Pension Reform: Main points
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 20 Feb 2019

Today, President Jair Bolsonaro delivered to Congress the proposal for Pension Reform. According to the government, the core principals of the proposal are the creation of a fair and egalitarian system, in which those who earn less pay less; guarantee of the sustainability of the system; greater ...

Uzbekistan places first govt Eurobond, upcoming corporate placements
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 20 Feb 2019

Uzbekistan last week issued its first Government Eurobond, at USD 1 bn, 8.5 times oversubscribed with a yield at 5.375%. This is a major success. There are 5 year and 10 year notes. Uzbek companies need finance for foreign trade and to invest in domestic production and services.The yield on 10 ye...

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