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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Economics: Clear harbingers of a slowdown
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Data published in recent weeks regarding a range of production and aggregate demand components may foreshadow a more significant deceleration of the Mexican economy than most anyone was anticipating late last year. And while we have sustained since the third quarter a conservative 2019 GDP growth...

Politics: AMLO’s winning ways with the generals
MEXICO · Report · 18 Feb 2019

During his 2018 election campaign, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador frequently took polemical shots at the country’s armed forces, painting them as machine-gunning citizens left and right, and regularly promising that under an AMLO administration the troops would no longer be used to repress...

Ugly inflation data and an upgrade from S&P
HUNGARY · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Over the past month, bad news came along with good news, none of them completely unexpected. On the dark side, adjusted core inflation continued its upward march and reached the trigger point at which the MNB formerly said would consider monetary tightening. Given this event, and especially the s...

Another ailing State-Owned Company-SA Airways- to be split into three divisions
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 18 Feb 2019

In its April 2018 Financial Stability Review, the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) warned that state firms’ debt may threaten South Africa’s financial stability. Indeed, governance issues at state-owned entities (SOEs), rising contingent liabilities (in the form of government guarantees) and ina...

The Pension Reform battle in Congress
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 18 Feb 2019

This week’s Talking Points: • The Pension Reform battle in Congress • Widespread support for Pension Reform in the Lower House • The Bebianno issue • The dangers of Parliamentary Committees of Inquiry (CPIs) • Doria retains prominence • The TST’s decision strengthens the privatization agend...

Michael Calvey to be held for two months
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 18 Feb 2019

A court decided that Michael Calvey will be detained for two months before his trial begins. This is the norm in Russia. There had been some hope that he would be released on 18 February but the court decided otherwise. The American investor Calvey and three senior employees of Baring Vostok are ...

Revision of the growth estimates
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 18 Feb 2019

In light of the data released last week, the best estimate is that GDP variation in the fourth quarter of 2018 was nil. With this, our estimate of growth for last year has fallen from 1.3% to 1.1%, and based on this alteration and the latest coinciding indicators, we have to revise our previous g...

Despite January's upward CPI surprise, rates to remain on hold
ISRAEL · Report · 18 Feb 2019

Although January's CPI surprised on the upside, the inflation environment remains fairly tame. We expect inflation to reach 1.1% in the NTM impacted by a strong shekel and weakening wage pressure offset by tax increases and higher housing rental prices. GDP growth reached 3.1% saar in Q418, in...

Time for Plan B in pork-barreling?
TURKEY · Report · 17 Feb 2019

As economic data published in January-February reveal an economy mired in recession, and the few polls available to public suggest AKP-MHP failing to gain ground, the administration may be switching to Plan B in electoral populism, namely fiscal and monetary expansionism. Unconventional methods o...

An upgrade from S&P, possibly leading to a stronger HUF in short term
HUNGARY · In Brief · 17 Feb 2019

On Friday, February 15, S&P upgraded the Hungarian State to BBB/Stable from the BBB-/Positive level, at which it had been staying since August 2017. This was not entirely unexpected. The agency was impressed especially by regular high growth and the systematic reductions of the government debt ra...

Relentless hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 16 Feb 2019

Our monthly inflation estimate for January 2019 rises to 225 percent, exceeding our 200 percent forecast. This mainly reflects the impact of the bolivar’s persistent depreciation in the Dicom segment since November 2018 and the sharp rise in the price of the dollar in the parallel market since Ja...

Major American investor arrested in Moscow
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Feb 2019

Michael Calvey (founder of Baring Vostok) has been arrested in Moscow on suspicion of fraud. Baring Vostok is a private equity group that holds USD 3.7 billion in assets. Calvey is suspected of defrauding Vostochny Bank of USD 37.5 million - Baring Vostok has a controlling share in the bank. The ...

No quantitative easing for China
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 15 Feb 2019

There is a widespread expectation among western investors that China will enact quantitative easing to counter the effects of the trade war and the slowing economy. This is highly unlikely. Although there is substantial data indicating significant pain in the economy, including defaulting SMEs, u...

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy
PANAMA · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

The Board of Directors of the Panama Canal Authority elected Ricaurte Vásquez as the new Administrator (CEO) of the agency and Ilya Espino de Marotta as his Deputy.Ricaurte Vásquez is the new CEO of the ACP, appointed unanimously by the eleven-member Board of Directors, for a period of seven year...

Q4 GDP growth, the new growth target and monetary policy
HUNGARY · In Brief · 15 Feb 2019

1. GDP growth was reported at 4.8% yoy on sda basis for Q4 2018, down from a revised 5.1% yoy in Q3. The full-year growth rate was recorded at a preliminary 4.9% in sda terms (4.8% according to unadjusted data). In fact, GDP grew by close to 5% yoy throughout the whole of 2018.2. On February 10, ...

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