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The National People’s Congress: Worrying assumptions about revenue in 2019
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 05 Mar 2019

China’s annual National People’s Congress provides a window into the thinking of the government about its plans for the year. Both the assumptions and omissions are a valuable tool for forecasting China’s economic trajectory. The Ministry of Finance’s report on the economy outlined by Premier ...

Inflation now within target
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 05 Mar 2019

As we had expected, inflation fell from 4.4% in January to 3.8% in February, within the BSP’s 2-4% target. The month-on-month inflation rate was steady at 0.2, mainly reflecting the impact of higher oil fuel prices, including the contribution of higher excise taxes on oil. Food prices meanwhile c...

Budget Secretary is new BSP Chief
PHILIPPINES · In Brief · 04 Mar 2019

In a surprise move, President Duterte last night decided that his budget Secretary, Benjamin Diokno, would be the best man to head the BSP. The Secretary is well regarded as an academic and technocrat whose field of expertise is public finance. Although untested in the area of banking and financi...

New signs of further slowing
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2019

A range of indicators published in recent weeks appears to foreshadow a more significant deceleration of diverse production and aggregate demand components. Industrial production fell an annual 2.5% in December, the sector’s worst percentage variation since November 2009, as the drag of a long de...

Politics: Good news and bad on the National Guard
MEXICO · Report · 04 Mar 2019

In the last two weeks the debate over the administration’s National Guard proposal took a totally unexpected turn as members of Congress unanimously voted for a consensus proposal that resolved many points that had drawn strenuous objections. Key changes to the original proposal by the admini...

Monetæ Pax
ARGENTINA · Report · 04 Mar 2019

​As usual, at this time of the year, Argentine politics and economic activity wake up from their summer lull. Friday's opening of the ordinary 2019 congressional session was the official kick-off. President Macri’s State of the Union address was a firm defense of his government’s achievements, de...

The Presidency sets up a Special Tribunal at Special Investigation Unit (SIU) to recover stolen funds
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Year in and year out, large amounts of money are lost to the state from corruption or irregular spending. This is one of the main reasons the Special Investigation Unit (SIU) was established in 1996 in terms of the Special Investigating Units and Special Tribunal Act, (Act No 74 of 1996). The mai...

Who’s buying China’s domestic bonds?
CHINA ADVISORY · Report · 04 Mar 2019

One large part of China’s growing credit stimulus has been the bond market. A significant portion of this increased investment has come from the private sector. But how much? And how stable and transparent is this source of funding? We analyzed data on China’s bond market to understand the cha...

Inflation eases further, but looking sticky
TURKEY · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Consumer prices rose by 0.16%, m/m, in February, somewhat lower than the market consensus of some 0.4%-0.5%, with the 12-month CPI inflation hence easing further to 19.7%, from 20.4% in January. The 12-month domestic-PPI inflation continued to drop as well, to 29.6% from 32.9% during this period,...

According to BoI research, shekel appreciation is expected to slow inflation
ISRAEL · Report · 04 Mar 2019

Recent PC indicators point to some deceleration, supportive of weak inflationary pressure. Policy rates will remain stable at 0.25% as the MPC aims to push inflation towards 2%. Despite steady growth in Israel at its potential growth rate, the MPC sees global downside risks. A BoI research paper ...

London trip notes
TURKEY · Report · 03 Mar 2019

We were both in London from Tuesday through Friday to participate in a dinner event with some 20 experts/investors, which was hosted by TD Securities, organized jointly with Global Source Partners. During this time, we also got to visit several buy and sell-side financial firms touring separately...

Rostec joins pilot customs project with China
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 02 Mar 2019

RT Invest Transport Systems and Platon will jointly run a pilot project controlling freight and passenger traffic between Russia and China. RT Invest Transport System is a subsidiary of Rostec. Platon is a toll system.There have been several attempts to improve Trans-Eurasia roads and capitalize ...

An ambitious plan from the MNB on government debt
HUNGARY · In Brief · 02 Mar 2019

On February 27, MNB governor Matolcsy, who is reappointed now for another 6-year term in his office, starting with March 4 2019, revealed an ambitious and somewhat perplexing plan regarding government debt. He said that in the future, all government debt 'will have to be' in domestic hands, and t...

The 2018 results are in
PANAMA · In Brief · 01 Mar 2019

Economic ActivityAccording to the figures published today by the Comptroller General, real GDP grew 3.7% during 2018. Our estimate was 3.8% for the year. The Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) and some international organizations estimated growth at 4.2%. This result confirms the slowdown that...

A president under pressure
PERU · Report · 01 Mar 2019

The government has started to feel the brunt of increased demands for action in several public policy areas, intensified by an abnormal El Niño-driven rainy season that has demanded the special attention of most of the Cabinet. The idea that President Martin Vizcarra has made the fight against co...

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