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Oil companies angry with Rosgvardiya
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 21 Jan 2019

Four major oil companies have complained to the Russian Government about Rosgvardiya. Rosgvardiya was founded in 2016 as a government security service and its regulates security for oil companies as well as providing such services for oil companies. Oil companies believe that Rosgvardiya is being...

2019: Drowning by hyperinflation
VENEZUELA · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 1 response

Hyperinflation in 2018 was fierce. The annual inflation rate closed at 2 million percent (our base case) after accelerating steadily throughout the year. Consumers face frequent and intense price increases, distortions in relative prices and intermittent shortages of basic consumer goods. Thei...

Stuck between austerity and poor voter sentiment
TURKEY · Report · 20 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

It is incumbent upon the Turkey observer and investor to understand the import of a victory in municipal elections for the ruling AKP-MHP alliance. Upsets in Ankara and/or Istanbul, or a visible drop in the joint vote of the alliance could jeopardize its future in power. This is the framework in ...

Russia switches to buying Yuan
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 19 Jan 2019

The Bank of Russia announced on 9 January that in June it dumped USD 101 Billion in holdings. Reserves have been shifted to USD 44 Billion worth of RMB, USD 44 Billion worth of EUR and USD 21 Billion worth of JPY. This reduces exposure to US sanctions.

Essential CIS Politics: American withdrawal from Syria would be a mixed blessing for Russia
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · Report · 18 Jan 2019

* Russia’s economy is growing but modestly. * American withdrawal from Syria would be a mixed blessing for Russia. * Azerbaijan is striving to diversify its economy. Trump announced that the US is withdrawing troops from Syria. This is welcome news in Russia since the Americans sometimes ...

Nearly excellent current performance, moderately positive medium-term prospects
HUNGARY · Forecast · 18 Jan 2019

In our new quarterly forecast, we do not take into account the possible negative impacts of major international economic, financial or political debacles such as e.g. a potential no-deal Brexit on 29 March. Even though the British parliament’s NO vote to the government’s Brexit proposal a few day...

A sustainable recovery that elections could upend
UKRAINE · Forecast · 18 Jan 2019

Ukraine’s economy was clearly experiencing a healthy recovery in 2018. GDP sped up to +3.2% y/y, from +2.5% y/y in 2017. Inflation slowed to +9.8% ytd from +13.7%. The hryvnia remained largely stable, losing a negligible 2.2% on average through the year, and even strengthening in the last days of...

The South African Reserve Bank starts 2019 on a more dovish note
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 17 Jan 2019

Today the South African Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee completed its first of six meetings to be held in 2019 to decide the country’s interest rate path. In line with market expectations, the MPC decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.75%, hence the prime rate also ...

Volatility and slowdown, as Piñera’s honeymoon ends
CHILE · Report · 17 Jan 2019

Economic activity varied greatly from half to half in 2018, with H1 growth running at 5%, and signs of recovery in machinery and investment. But H2 saw deceleration, with activity and consumption growth slowing in Q3.Today the economy seems to be growing at 3%, and we expect 2018 GDP growth to co...

Russia plans to slash business regulations
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jan 2019

On 15 January Prime Minister Medvedev announced that the government will probably introduce a regulatory guillotine in Russia. In the next two years outdated business regulations will be repealed. Regulations found to be unnecessary will be scrapped and business is elated. Overregulation stymies ...

Business cycle conditions, Oct-Dec 2018
INDIA · Report · 17 Jan 2019

The best measure of business cycle conditions in India is the coincident indicator, which is a linear combination of well-measured underlying indicators. The coincident indicator deteriorated slightly in Oct-Dec 2018, to +2.68% above trend. The leading indicator gives us a sense of how the co...

Mexico conference call: Mexico's economic outlook: Pragmatism or promises?
MEXICO · Report · 16 Jan 2019

Replay our Mexico conference call, "Economic outlook: Pragmatism or promises?​" featuring our Mexico City-based Country Analyst Mauricio Gonzalez. Can the recently-passed 2019 Budget deliver fiscal results consistent with public sector debt stability? How will AMLO's policies and outlook impact t...

Important policy statement from the MNB
HUNGARY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2019

Speaking at the Euromoney conference in Vienna, MNB vice governor Nagy said that in case their 'core inflation adjusted for the impact of changes in indirect taxes' indicator reaches or exceeds 3% yoy, the MNB will conclude that inflation has reached the Bank's medium-term target on a sustainable...

The ANC 2019 election manifesto – new strategies or just more of the old promises?
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jan 2019

The African National Congress (ANC), the governing party in South Africa since the beginning of democracy in 1994, has delivered its election manifesto for the upcoming country’s general elections to be held during May of this year. By all accounts, these are likely to be the toughest elections ...

MPC leaves rates unchanged, as expected
TURKEY · In Brief · 16 Jan 2019 · 2 responses

In line with the consensus, the CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) kept the policy rate (one-week repo rate) at 24% (simple) today. Recall that this is the third consecutive meeting that the Bank left rates unchanged, since it had raised the policy rate by 625 bps on September 13th (see chart...

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