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COUNTRY INSIGHTS

Rail renovation behind schedule
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 17 Jul 2019

On July 16 the vice minister of Russian Railroads Maksim Akimov told a private meeting that stage one of upgrading the Trans-Siberian Railroad will not be completed on time. It was supposed to be finished by 2020. Construction is particularly problematic around Lake Baikal and the Amur River. Aki...

SAUDI: Government spending supports non-oil economy and requires further debt issuance
GULF COUNTRIES · Report · 16 Jul 2019

The sharp slowdown in GDP growth in Q1 was due to voluntary oil production cuts and is not an immediate cause for concern. More positively, government spending in 2018 fed through into higher private non-oil sector growth in Q1 2019. Leading economic data indicates continued momentum in the non-o...

Russia is de-centralizing national projects
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019

On July 15 Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced that he wished to transfer decision making on the 12 national projects to independent committees. Until now decision about the national projects had been made by the Presidium of the Council on Strategic Development and National Projects. This o...

Primer on Pemex Business Plan: general overview is not promising
MEXICO · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019

This morning the head of Pemex (Octavio Romero), made some general remarks about Pemex Business Plan, that was yesterday unanimously approved by Pemex Board (in absence, but with representation of new Finance Minister A. Herrera). We’ll analyze the full document as soon as it is available, howeve...

Former President Jacob Zuma finally honors the State Capture Commission’s request to face the nation
SOUTH AFRICA · Report · 16 Jul 2019

​In the State of Capture 2016 report by the ex-Public Protector, Thuli Madonzela, the former President, Jacob Zuma, was found to have been the key role player in state capture. The report was “an investigation into complaints of alleged improper and unethical conduct by the president and other st...

Rosneft asks for huge tax break for Arctic exploration
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 16 Jul 2019

Igor Sechin (CEO of Rosneft) wrote to President Putin requesting an enormous tax break to enable his company to develop oil production in the Arctic Circle. Rosneft estimates it will spend anywhere between USD 80 billion and 135 billion. The tax exemption requested is worth about USD 41 billion. ...

Pension Reform: The worst has passed and other weekly topics
BRAZIL POLITICS · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Congress enters its midyear recess on Thursday, July 18. The government may present details of the Tax Reform proposal it will sent to Congress. The economic team may announce economic stimulus measures. President Bolsonaro takes part in the Mercosur Summit in Argentina. Brazil takes over preside...

Economics: Reality disconnect as the economy stalls
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Almost all major economic growth drivers have stalled or are in retreat, particularly investment, and to a lesser extent both public and private consumption, while economic expectations continue to slip lower. So far the government’s efforts to reassure all stakeholders have proven, at best, poor...

Politics: A new balance of forces under AMLO
MEXICO · Report · 15 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Carlos Urzúa’s abrupt resignation last week as minister of finance cast a new light on the sorts of rivalries plaguing the administration of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, as well as the pitfalls of trying to manage such an ideologically diverse array of appointees. There is nothing p...

Leading indicator report for Apr-Jun 2019
INDIA · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Using the data now available, we are able to calculate the leading indicator for Apr-Jun 2019, but not the coincident indicator for this same quarter. We see a turning point in business cycle conditions in Q1 2018. The leading indicator gives us a sense of what will happen to the coincident i...

The time has come to start lowering the interest rate
BRAZIL ECONOMICS · Report · 15 Jul 2019 · 1 response

Ambitious objectives are rarely entirely achieved, but in the case of the pension reform, the most recent legislative developments indicate that the country is poised to take an important step ahead. Many actions in the fiscal field will still be necessary to reverse the rising path of the debt/G...

Surprisingly hawkish message from the BoI
ISRAEL · Report · 15 Jul 2019

Highlights: Policy rates remained on hold last week. * The BoI Governor's press conference and the macro forecast reflected a clear tightening bias. Governor Yaron sees the likelihood of a rate hike in "one of the upcoming decisions". He also said that Israel could tighten while other b...

Populism at home, sanctions abroad
TURKEY · Report · 14 Jul 2019

The S-400 crisis entered the next phase, with Ankara beginning to take delivery of some parts, as the Bloomberg claimed that the White House shall announce sanctions in the coming week. This is not the final scene. The politics author believes that Ankara still belabors until false hopes and mist...

Turkey buys Russian missile defense system - weakens NATO
RUSSIA / FSU POLITICS · In Brief · 13 Jul 2019

Turkey has received the first parts of the Russian S-400 missile defense system. The US lobbied very hard against Turkey purchasing this system. The Turks also want to buy American F-35 fighter planes. The US is deeply worried that Turkey might allow the Russians to examine F-35 planes to assess ...

Electoral kickoff
ARGENTINA · Report · 12 Jul 2019 · 1 response

The electoral campaign for the August 9 open primaries officially started on July 12. As they are mandatory and simultaneous, all candidates have to participate. However, as happened in previous elections, most political parties have already decided who will be their only candidate for the lea...

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